Model Output Discussion - Autumn arrives

[damianslaw]

25 minutes ago, mushymanrob said:

Odd .... not sure why theres excitement over a Northerly in July!  It "fine" at best... the AZH is not good for warmth/heat/sun whilst its anchored to our West.

Agree to an extent but depends on how strong it becomes, this feature is forecast to be a large and strong one, and this would likely allow for 'homegrown' temp growth day by day.. whether it manages to build sufficiently through the UK to pull in warmer uppers we shall see, but some of the forecasts are suggesting this may well take place but could be a slow affair.. one slight concern is we end up with a weak cut off trough feature once again over Iberia a heat low and this could push north in time and sink heights back west again.. quite plausible in the current La Nina set up, but such a development may not arrive until later in July, meaning a good chunk of the middle of the month could be very fine and warm indeed - not heatwave but decent, and my view will be the best part of the summer, make the most of it!  those booked a holiday in the UK second and third full week of July (commencing 11th July, 18th July - may well be grinning!)..

Edited June 28, 2022 by damianslaw

[Don]

54 minutes ago, mushymanrob said:

Odd .... not sure why theres excitement over a Northerly in July!  It "fine" at best... the AZH is not good for warmth/heat/sun whilst its anchored to our West.

Would suit me just fine to have fine and dry weather without being too warm or hot!

[mountain shadow]

55 minutes ago, mushymanrob said:

Odd .... not sure why theres excitement over a Northerly in July!  It "fine" at best... the AZH is not good for warmth/heat/sun whilst its anchored to our West.

At least I'll get temperatures of 17C rather than the 12C of late.

June has been so bad that even a warmish cloudy high will have to do.

[Singularity]

Being under the eastern flank of a high that’s orientated west-east is very different to when the high is very circular or orientated north-south. 

It puts the UK in an area of decelerating winds where warm tropical maritime air can accumulate.

Cloud is likely to counteract that warming effect by day in the northwest, but further south & east, at least some sunny spells are likely and in those, temps should respond well.

Provided, of course, the models are right to have a west-east orientated high that overlaps the UK rather than staying more to the west.

[Iceman2606]

Goodness GFS 18z! An absolute beauty of a run keeping the high over us out to 384h. 18z is on major roids as usual...

[Kentspur]

2 hours ago, damianslaw said:

Agree to an extent but depends on how strong it becomes, this feature is forecast to be a large and strong one, and this would likely allow for 'homegrown' temp growth day by day.. whether it manages to build sufficiently through the UK to pull in warmer uppers we shall see, but some of the forecasts are suggesting this may well take place but could be a slow affair.. one slight concern is we end up with a weak cut off trough feature once again over Iberia a heat low and this could push north in time and sink heights back west again.. quite plausible in the current La Nina set up, but such a development may not arrive until later in July, meaning a good chunk of the middle of the month could be very fine and warm indeed - not heatwave but decent, and my view will be the best part of the summer, make the most of it!  those booked a holiday in the UK second and third full week of July (commencing 11th July, 18th July - may well be grinning!)..

Thanks very much im off from Monday until 24th July getting a bit of overtime before then. Does this weather channel app still use GFS by looks spot on im off to Wimbledon next week  

[Kentspur]

14 hours ago, TwisterGirl81 said:

Well if you want to live in an area that is dryer and warmer in summer than then south east of the england has always been the place to be.  They are the driest warmest part of the country in the summer. I live in the southwest and whilst we do get nicer weather than the north I accept than our climate is still more changeable and wetter than the south east as we are nearer the north Atlantic whilst the south east is closer to mainland Europe.  Even down here in summer temperatures can often be over 5c warmer in the usual south eastern parts than in the south west.  I'm sure someone has a more technical explanation for this and I would love to hear it

Dyou know what I've only ever seen 3 weather condition types in Devon and never rainfall!. April 1998 I was there for the first time hoping to travel to Cornwall but we had to turn back as there was a heavy snowfall! Everyone was saying how rare it is in the winter let alone in April time!!!.

 

I've been South Devon 6 times now! including a few days ago and only saw blue sky one day it reached 30c surprisingly your right it's usually cooler but very pleasant  whenever I visit the weathers perfect the occasional cloudy day when I came a few years ago but that was in early March!Still had no rain then either like the other times I've visited haha.

 

what are the chances in 6 visits only seeing snow and sun in Devon!!

My other halves dad is moving to possibly Brixham lager in the year too. Never had so many cream teas. Perhaps you need me to come back to bring the Kentish heat again

 

Funny thing is I'm kff work for 3 weeks again in a few days and the weathers looping glorious down here. WIMBLEDON and the Kent and Sussex coasts here I come. Wouldnt wsnt to live anywhere else in summer time. We have naff snowless winters after all didnt see a flake the enter just gone so we gotta make it up with our sunny summers 

Edited June 29, 2022 by Kentspur

[sheikhy]

Seems like a hiccup this morning on gfs between 96 and 120 hours a low comes sliding down over us!!seems to be a trend last few days of delaying that azores high with annoying shortwaves over the top!!hopefully an outlier!

[Frosty.]

The Ukmo 0z is hopefully on the right track for a more settled and warmer spell next week! ️  

[Man With Beard]

GFS and ECM both setting up for a long summery spell from next week onwards - a heatwave far from impossible too, part of the 2013 July heatwave had a similar set-up with a gentle westerly (it's the only time of the year that a heatwave is possible on a westerly!)

[sheikhy]

7 minutes ago, Man With Beard said:

GFS and ECM both setting up for a long summery spell from next week onwards - a heatwave far from impossible too, part of the 2013 July heatwave had a similar set-up with a gentle westerly (it's the only time of the year that a heatwave is possible on a westerly!)

Just concerned as soon as we get that high closer to 96 and 120 hours each time a shortwave will crop up out of no where and slide south east therefore not getting the high as far east as possible!!

[mb018538]

17 minutes ago, Man With Beard said:

GFS and ECM both setting up for a long summery spell from next week onwards - a heatwave far from impossible too, part of the 2013 July heatwave had a similar set-up with a gentle westerly (it's the only time of the year that a heatwave is possible on a westerly!)

Looks like it might take a bit longer to get there - first half of next week looking fairly cool with temperatures perhaps not even making 20c. Warming up from midweek, but depending on how the high is orientated will determine temperatures. Beyond that it could turn much warmer, but plenty of water under the bridge before then.

[Frosty.]

Here’s a small sample of what could be ours during July!.. …the GEFS 0z mean, albeit slowly, is taking us in the right direction towards a potentially prolonged summery spell…to be honest, I don’t mind a slow / gradual transition as long as we get there!!!!! ️  

[northwestsnow]

Thats a pretty good EC mean at day 10.

Hopefully a solid starting point for a protracted warm spell.

I wouldn't be at all surprised if we see drought like conditions across the SE by late July...

 

[mountain shadow]

2 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

Thats a pretty good EC mean at day 10.

Hopefully a solid starting point for a protracted warm spell.

I wouldn't be at all surprised if we see drought like conditions across the SE by late July...

 

Indeed. Looking forward to things drying up over this side of the Irish Sea. No drought here.

[Mike Poole]

1 minute ago, northwestsnow said:

Thats a pretty good EC mean at day 10.

Hopefully a solid starting point for a protracted warm spell.

I wouldn't be at all surprised if we see drought like conditions across the SE by late July...

 

Yes, the 1030 hPa line in the UK at T240 on a mean chart is into nailed on territory for me!  Some of the GFS runs lately in the later stages have shown a classic extended Azores ridge into the UK and beyond.  

Might be a slow burner to start with particularly in the NW, but summer warm settled spells that build slowly tend to last.  

[Methuselah]

It's nice to see the models heading in the right direction this morning. Is that a nascent Iberian LP I see in the latter stages?

    

    

    

If it is, it would be just what the Rain Doctor ordered!

[Singularity]

GFS seemingly determined to find complications with the weekend low pressure complex but continuing to look isolated compared to other modelling which still keeps the low’s influence away from SE UK & then begins the build of high pressure in from the west Sun-Mon.

GEM 00z cautioning that we might not be comfortably under the eastern flank of that high - only just reaches eastward enough on that run to bring sufficiently stable conditions via warm air aloft for avoiding a very cloudy outcome.

[Cambrian]

Ah, we all love day 10 charts, and these are a telling set of charts for me. On the 0z GFS op, we have a high encroaching from the west - not the southwest - into Ireland and the UK, it’s already done its hard lumping north way out west over the Atlantic. Northerly feed, it’s going to be bit cool, eh?  

 

Well not really, it’s actually going to be about right for good summer weather. 1030-1035mb and look at those heights, 584 dam into the north of Scotland. The op, mean and long term average coincide at day 10, so the op sitting happy with the ensemble.

Homegrown warmth from Cornwall to Grampian, 24 degrees for southern and eastern England and parts of eastern Scotland, 20 degrees or more for most, reliably dry for all. 

 

Great posts on here of late, and no wonder - July is the heart of the summer - if it looks like we’re going to get a good July, it looks like we’re going to get a good summer. It might not be a Mediterranean heatwave but it’s going to be very nice and more than good enough for me. 
 

So if you don’t mind, please hold my lemon water while I nip off to feed the cicadas. 

[minus10]

1 hour ago, Ed Stone said:

It's nice to see the models heading in the right direction this morning. Is that a nascent Iberian LP I see in the latter stages?

    

    

    

If it is, it would be just what the Rain Doctor ordered!

Thats got to be the hope ES...lovely to have summery conditions but please...interspersed with some rain as i would like to see green grass again...

 

[mb018538]

13 minutes ago, minus10 said:

Thats got to be the hope ES...lovely to have summery conditions but please...interspersed with some rain as i would like to see green grass again...

 

I know what you mean. Starting to look a bit like like the Sahara in places here!



6z has the high a bit far out west with a northerly setting in. The ECM mean looks a lot better!



Would be a shame if this pattern change to high pressure gets scuppered a bit with it staying too far west so that not everyone benefits.

[sheikhy]

Good thing is gfs has dropped that little low at 120 hours that was on the 00z run!!much drier!!

[Methuselah]

Well, even though we all know things won't work out as the GFS 06Z predicts -- the potential exists (even for, dare I say it?) a hot easterly:

    

    

    

Don't count your chickens and all that!

Edited June 29, 2022 by Ed Stone

[mushymanrob]

1 minute ago, Ed Stone said:

Well, even though all know things won't work out as the GFS 06Z predicts -- the potential exists (even for, dare I say it?) a hot easterly:

    

    

    

Don't' count your chickens and all that!

Id like a hot Easterly... they arent common, that chart would be very thundery too...

[minus10]

8 minutes ago, Ed Stone said:

Well, even though we all know things won't work out as the GFS 06Z predicts -- the potential exists (even for, dare I say it?) a hot easterly:

    

    

    

Don't count your chickens and all that!

I was just looking at that thinking " ahh potential for some rain of a thundery nature" but....hold the front page!!!

Does this mean that AT LAST we will get some decent rain tonite here in drylands?????.....