Model Output Discussion - Autumn arrives

[Singularity]

1 hour ago, bluearmy said:

The ec suites are way less progressive on giving the MJO any amplitude in 4/5 compared to the gefs 

I believe there’s a combo of bias (low in 4/5 for EPS) & some misrepresentation by the HW method of plotting in play.

That said - the event is not a given, as noted in my post.

[Cambrian]

12z GFS operational run - after an improvement as we head into the first few days of July, by day 10 (4 July), crazy polar Yeti dude with a heart of ice shakes his fist menacingly at Siberia and looks to stick the boot in once more on the Northwest Europe summer. Grrrrrr.

 

 

[Scott Ingham]

On 22/06/2022 at 14:49, JayAlmeida said:

Wasn't AAM predicted to rapidly fall throughout the second half of June and thus the weather would be unsettled as a result? 

Apart from a few days here and there it has turned out to be the complete opposite (regional differences aside).

The background drivers seem very accurate at explaining weather after the fact rather than predicting it in advance.

Either that or the models themselves aren't very good at predicting the trajectories of the background drivers.

Theres a lag period after a drop in momentum its not instant. Middle of july unsettled for me

[Frosty.]

Looking at the GEFS 12z in the mid / longer term during early and towards mid July, there are some encouraging signs that the Azores high / ridge could become more influential for the u k once again?…at least the southern half!…there’s quite a fair scattering of ensemble support for July to evolve into a potentially reasonable month?… , at least there’s a chance that the main month of summer will bring some joy to summer fans! ️

 

 

 

[minus10]

5 minutes ago, jon snow said:

Looking at the GEFS 12z in the mid / longer term during early and towards mid July, there are some encouraging signs that the Azores high / ridge could become more influential for the u k once again?…at least the southern half!…there’s quite a fair scattering of ensemble support for July to evolve into a potentially reasonable month?… , at least there’s a chance that the main month of summer will bring some joy to summer fans! ️

 

 

 

Looks good JS, however before that is there a chance of the east getting some much needed rain next week according to gfs 12?

 

It would sure make this lot happy...

 

[Frosty.]

The longer term GEM 12z ensembles are similar to the GEFS, or, if anything, slightly better regarding July summery potential?! ️ ⛈ …anyway, I prefer to look on the bright side!  

 

 

[Cambrian]

The ECM is definitely latching on to an improvement towards the end of next week. Here again on the 12z run, the ENS mean Z500 anomalies show a marked ticking up between day 6 and day 9. 

There is a loss of the negative height anomalies that have lurked to our west then southwest until day 6….

 

….being replaced by day 9 by positive anomalies linking between the Atlantic and Scandinavian highs as raised heights surround us, importantly from the south too, sealing off the base of the trough. Looking a lot better for a more sustained build of seasonal weather. 

 

[damianslaw]

7 hours ago, Penrith Snow said:

Hmmm, looking at this mornings models the weather next weekend looks ok in SE England but decidedly cloudy and damp in the NW with a air flow off the Atlantic.

pressure pattern actually close to normal which TBH isn’t good news for my part of the world ? 

Andy

Indeed all very typical fayre for this juncture of the summer, interplay of the azores high and the fairly weak jetstream, neither of which having enough energy about them to override each other sufficiently, what it means is rather slow moving weather pattern, with one staying put for a few days followed by the other, the azores high never gaining enough traction to ridge and build enough to bring a long lasting fine warm spell, and the atlantic trough associated with the jetstream not strong enough or deep enough to usher in a sustained much more unsettled very wet spell. Temps as a result very average, and the weather all a bit indifferent. 

[ANYWEATHER]

44 minutes ago, Cambrian said:

The ECM is definitely latching on to an improvement towards the end of next week. Here again on the 12z run, the ENS mean Z500 anomalies show a marked ticking up between day 6 and day 9. 

There is a loss of the negative height anomalies that have lurked to our west then southwest until day 6….

 

….being replaced by day 9 by positive anomalies linking between the Atlantic and Scandinavian highs as raised heights surround us, importantly from the south too, sealing off the base of the trough. Looking a lot better for a more sustained build of seasonal weather. 

 

Really..? Can't see any settled weather on the horizon. ,potentially some very wet weather for uk later into the next weekend

[clark3r]

Poor outlook in terms of warmth this morning on the gfs, it’s is only Wednesday showing as the really warm day as in mid to high twenties, disappointing  run, hopefully some improvements in the coming days

[Cambrian]

Some crumbs of comfort perhaps from the 0z GFS - while the operational run keeps temperatures decidedly on the cool side throughout next week, the mean brings daytime maxima back up to around 20 degrees from around Wednesday onwards. This is for Birmingham. Might’nt be so bad. 

The 0z ECM op similarly has a gradually improving picture towards next weekend - we swap charts like this for Wednesday….

….for charts like this by next Saturday. . 

Winds are still coming in from the northwest and it’s still showery but the Azores high continues to attempt to ridge in from the southwest as the low pulls away north, and temperatures pick up a bit in central and eastern parts by a week today. 

 

I suppose it depends to a large extent on expectations, but around 20 degrees in between some summer showers doesn’t look too bad to me, cooler and more showery at times further north and west as is typical. It’s not a heatwave, but it’s hardly desperately bad either, it’s what we get at times in the UK and Ireland in a normal summer. 

Edited June 25, 2022 by Cambrian

[tight isobar]

The doom mongering on here @ times staggers me!!. I’m patchy at posting in the summer to say the least. Anyway there still admitidly a north south divide.. yet 1 that looks to gradually becoming more of a morphing, as we gain... here’s the main 3 ensembles this morning for London @00z.. And no prizes for noting an improving picture “All round”.. and already similarity to the lead of the last warm/hot snap.. yet with ever more encouragement as we’re hitting summer mid /proper.. enjoy your day.

[seb]

9 minutes ago, tight isobar said:

The doom mongering on here @ times staggers me!!. I’m patchy at posting in the summer to say the least. Anyway there still admitidly a north south divide.. yet 1 that looks to gradually becoming more of a morphing, as we gain... here’s the main 3 ensembles this morning for London @00z.. And no prizes for noting an improving picture “All round”.. and already similarity to the lead of the last warm/hot snap.. yet with ever more encouragement as we’re hitting summer mid /proper.. enjoy your day.

Agreed. 
At the start of the week it was apparently guaranteed that yesterday, today and tomorrow would be autumn-like throughout the country with copious amounts of rain.

We have not had a drop. It’s sunny with a nice breeze and temps will get to around 23 degrees. Could not wish for more (although we do need rain).

The past 5 days have been similar with some days actually reaching 27 degrees.

The next 10 days look similar with some days reaching >25 degrees again. No rain in sight other than maybe Thursday which will probably disappear once again. Overall trend is increasing temps.

[bluearmy]

1 hour ago, seb said:

Agreed. 
At the start of the week it was apparently guaranteed that yesterday, today and tomorrow would be autumn-like throughout the country with copious amounts of rain.

We have not had a drop. It’s sunny with a nice breeze and temps will get to around 23 degrees. Could not wish for more (although we do need rain).

The past 5 days have been similar with some days actually reaching 27 degrees.

The next 10 days look similar with some days reaching >25 degrees again. No rain in sight other than maybe Thursday which will probably disappear once again. Overall trend is increasing temps.

tonight’s anomoly chart                     Tonight’s anomoly chart from Monday mornings 00z ec op

 

we’re more aligned n/s on the low anom due to the sceuro ridge exerting a little more resistance than predicted but it’s a good prediction from the model. I suggest that what’s happening here is that people see a big low anomoly and assume terrible weather. You do need to take into account that it’s an anomoly and therefore the variance from June standard heights. We are seeing a west east split re precipitation and temps. 

and ref rainfall over the next ten days, you are in Kent - speak to someone in Lancashire in a weeks time !  
 

it’s not terrible - that’s for sure but this week is likely to be the poorest for useable outdoor weather across many parts of the country for a fair while. 

The route out of the upper trough stuck over nw europe continues to look uncertain …..the sceuro ridge continues to beat back operational forecasts of its demise and we remain prone to the trough whilst that’s the case. The Azores ridging across continues to look our best way out of this set up. 

Edited June 25, 2022 by bluearmy

[mountain shadow]

1 hour ago, seb said:

Agreed. 
At the start of the week it was apparently guaranteed that yesterday, today and tomorrow would be autumn-like throughout the country with copious amounts of rain.

We have not had a drop. It’s sunny with a nice breeze and temps will get to around 23 degrees. Could not wish for more (although we do need rain).

The past 5 days have been similar with some days actually reaching 27 degrees.

The next 10 days look similar with some days reaching >25 degrees again. No rain in sight other than maybe Thursday which will probably disappear once again. Overall trend is increasing temps.

Depends where you live of course. 

It is very Autumnal here this morning with worse to come next week.

[mushymanrob]

The progression on these charts suggest the Azores high edging closer and the troughing over the uk lifting/ becoming shallow.

IF this progression continues then after a cool, fresh, northwesterly start to July, it may well begin to settled down,  become largely dry, and warmer,.Who knows, it may even turn hot IF the Azores high continues tracking Eastwards, by mid month?

 

[Northern Sky]

15 minutes ago, mushymanrob said:

The progression on these charts suggest the Azores high edging closer and the troughing over the uk lifting/ becoming shallow.

IF this progression continues then after a cool, fresh, northwesterly start to July, it may well begin to settled down,  become largely dry, and warmer,.Who knows, it may even turn hot IF the Azores high continues tracking Eastwards, by mid month?

 

No measurable rain here since the 13th with very little if any forecast for the week ahead. I'm now chasing rain like I chase snow in Winter!

[mb018538]

31 minutes ago, mushymanrob said:

The progression on these charts suggest the Azores high edging closer and the troughing over the uk lifting/ becoming shallow.

IF this progression continues then after a cool, fresh, northwesterly start to July, it may well begin to settled down,  become largely dry, and warmer,.Who knows, it may even turn hot IF the Azores high continues tracking Eastwards, by mid month?

 

Doesn’t look too bad. If the MJO forces through that Nina standing wave then that could give the Azores high the eastwards push it needs as we head towards the end of the first week in July.

[SW Saltire]

1 hour ago, mountain shadow said:

Depends where you live of course. 

It is very Autumnal here this morning with worse to come next week.

The west coast of NI/Republic are certainly in for a bit of a battering. The forecast is bad enough for myself over the water from you. I guess it’ll even things up after the best weather of the summer so far

[minus10]

1 hour ago, Northern Sky said:

No measurable rain here since the 13th with very little if any forecast for the week ahead. I'm now chasing rain like I chase snow in Winter!

Yes the latest ecm precip forecast for next ten days shows some rain for far west and far eastern areas whereas a big swathe of central southern and ne areas stay relatively dry...

Grass definately browning up around my area with constant watering of plants needed. Butt near empty so will have to revert to tap...reminds me of a med climate this with weeks of relatively dry sometimes very warm/hot weather. Understand that if you live in the west, particularly the north west your perception will be very different. Yes i feel like i am chasing rain at present ...seems like with this weather pattern we will have to go on chasing it for some time...think that future garden planting schemes will be more predicated towards dry garden drought tolerant plants...back to the med....

Edited June 25, 2022 by minus10

[MATTWOLVES 3]

Firstly I hope your all having a top weekend...if your not feeling so good then the speediest of recovery to you.

Here's what I'm thinking gang....Next week we have showers at times with perhaps more general rain on Tuesday....Eastern areas look drier though...

Beyond this the more unsettled of the conditions look to become anchored further N/NW....not great news for you guys but I'm hoping and praying it improves for all with time.

Further South and East looks to become more settled and at times even very warm. GEM shows  heights to the NW quite robustly...and we do look boxed in all around...wow there's a lot of Heights on that chart...but I would say at times some very decent summer conditions look plausible at times and even some heat!

I'm feeling July could throw some very summary conditions towards us at times...especially further South! 

Bottom line its not all bad...away from the NW....hopefully you guys will get some just rewards with time.

Live it large and keep smiling regardless of what the Weather gods throw at you.

Just noticed I've used the words at times far too much with this post

Edited June 25, 2022 by MATTWOLVES

[clark3r]

I don’t know if it is me, but any warmth has now gone from the runs so far this evening for next week, in fact infact some days well below normal, see what ECM and UKM have to say, I’m off to turkey next Saturday for 2 weeks, so hoping things pick up for when I get back 

[ANYWEATHER]

8 hours ago, tight isobar said:

The doom mongering on here @ times staggers me!!. I’m patchy at posting in the summer to say the least. Anyway there still admitidly a north south divide.. yet 1 that looks to gradually becoming more of a morphing, as we gain... here’s the main 3 ensembles this morning for London @00z.. And no prizes for noting an improving picture “All round”.. and already similarity to the lead of the last warm/hot snap.. yet with ever more encouragement as we’re hitting summer mid /proper.. enjoy your day.

I don't think anyone is "doom mongering" ,folks are just looking at the latest output and to be honest this weekend looks absurdly windy and so does the middle of next week! Okay the outlook is not like 2012 ,but the outlook is far from a 2018 outlook either.. The outlook is not great for high summer

[tight isobar]

1 hour ago, ANYWEATHER said:

I don't think anyone is "doom mongering" ,folks are just looking at the latest output and to be honest this weekend looks absurdly windy and so does the middle of next week! Okay the outlook is not like 2012 ,but the outlook is far from a 2018 outlook either.. The outlook is not great for high summer

A fair initial comment. But the madden ju Osc-is in current switch/ transitions/ along with a get set.. ready .. wait tropical maritime response. So raw operationals are going to swing and sway with coordination/ dynamics!.. the ens will be forward in noting.. and a relaxing on the infant outs will likely catch up . Again for me July the summer show stopper.. and once nearing, @ early nxt week I’m sure we’ll get packing order in this. Tampering and compare ( IMO) the heat and uk swathers are immenent, and for the country as a whole..@ least on base scale.

Edited June 25, 2022 by tight isobar

[Guest]

1 hour ago, ANYWEATHER said:

I don't think anyone is "doom mongering" ,folks are just looking at the latest output and to be honest this weekend looks absurdly windy and so does the middle of next week! Okay the outlook is not like 2012 ,but the outlook is far from a 2018 outlook either.. The outlook is not great for high summer

It’s like posting at the end of December ‘6-10C, rainy and windy, pretty reasonable for cold weather fans’ imagine the uproar.