Model Output Discussion - Autumn arrives

[MP-R]

1 hour ago, KTtom said:

You do have to laugh when looking at the 06z GFS, we pretty much have the same low dancing around the UK from 72 hours to 372 hours! Its just got nowhere to go!

A very bizarre run. One for the bin.

[Methuselah]

Well, given the brown and withered state of all the grass around here, my Zimbabwean rain dance might bear fruit:

    

    

     

Should that LP stagnate and fill right atop Blighty like that, the No Storms Club will be stripped of all its members!

[bluearmy]

2 hours ago, mb018538 said:

Looks like it'll emerge from there in phase 5 in the days after though on the ECM.



Latest GFS run has it clearly into phase 4 (albeit fairly low amplitude) and moving towards phase 5 as we go into July.

Yesterdays 46 show the mean struggling to escape the COD through first half july although individual ens members could well allow an escape into reasonable amplitude phase 4 later week 3. 

[northwestsnow]

10 minutes ago, bluearmy said:

Yesterdays 46 show the mean struggling to escape the COD through first half july although individual ens members could well allow an escape into reasonable amplitude phase 4 later week 3. 

You are worrying me ! I've a week camping in Buxton from the 8th July .. really really don't want a UK trough !!!

[minus10]

50 minutes ago, Ed Stone said:

Well, given the brown and withered state of all the grass around here, my Zimbabwean rain dance might bear fruit:

    

    

     

Should that LP stagnate and fill right atop Blighty like that, the No Storms Club will be stripped of all its members!

Yes....talk about a 'Jim Bowen' special

.

 

[bluearmy]

1 hour ago, northwestsnow said:

You are worrying me ! I've a week camping in Buxton from the 8th July .. really really don't want a UK trough !!!

Pointless worrying at that range ……

[Captain Shortwave]

The Arpege is going for a high of 29c both tomorrow and Thursday. With very light winds it is going to feel very warm or even hot across a large part of the country.

   

Is it just me, but the models seem to be moving towards a rather lack pressure pattern over the weekend. Heights are low but the gradient is slack as seen on the UKMO. That certainly raises the risk of localised high rainfall totals as any showers will be slow moving. There is also the chance of convergence zones, more so in the east where a warmer airmass might still be present.

Edited June 21, 2022 by Captain Shortwave

[sheikhy]

33 minutes ago, Captain Shortwave said:

The Arpege is going for a high of 29c both tomorrow and Thursday. With very light winds it is going to feel very warm or even hot across a large part of the country.

Is it just me, but the models seem to be moving towards a rather lack pressure pattern over the weekend. Heights are low but the gradient is slack as seen on the UKMO. That certainly raises the risk of localised high rainfall totals as any showers will be slow moving. There is also the chance of convergence zones, more so in the east where a warmer airmass might still be present.

On the other hand where there is sun and no showers could be really warm and muggy with temps low to mid twenties maybe?!

[Frosty.]

2 hours ago, minus10 said:

Yes....talk about a 'Jim Bowen' special

.

 

Aye, you can’t beat a bit of Bully!  

As for the GEFS longer term, the 6z mean improved in early ish July with the Azores high starting to flex it’s muscles..hopefully the 12z mean will too! ️ 

Edited June 21, 2022 by jon snow

[Frosty.]

I figured the majority on here don’t want to look at cool unsettled / cyclonic charts ad infinitum in the height of summer!!!!!!… …so here’s a few more optimistic charts for early July from the GEFS 12z! ️

    

[Earthshine]

Fantastic outlook for the next few days.  Widespread warm sunshine.  Today was a pretty perfect summer's day here in Exeter.

[damianslaw]

17 minutes ago, Earthshine said:

Fantastic outlook for the next few days.  Widespread warm sunshine.  Today was a pretty perfect summer's day here in Exeter.

Perhaps 2 days, later Thursday and into Friday frintal feature moving in from the south, with the trough anchoring down on the UK from the west thereafter, becoming very slow moving. A cool wet cyclonic outlook for most, showery rather than wet further south. We are in a very up and down period temp wise.. 

[minus10]

Well the weather maybe changing with the trough however it appears that the se is not going to see much rain with the warmest and driest of the weather. There may be an odd thundery sourced downpoor to the east but not relying on that. Much of the land over the south and east is very dry and while i like sunny warm weather as much as anyone we do need some meaningful rain...pref at night ha ha...parched grass and rock hard soil will be causing us gardeners  and farmers increasing problems...just had 2mm of rain here from the last weekend thundery spell...

[bluearmy]

The ec 12z collapses the sceuro ridge - looks progressive but at least it’s something to hang your summer hat on 

[sheikhy]

30 minutes ago, bluearmy said:

The ec 12z collapses the sceuro ridge - looks progressive but at least it’s something to hang your summer hat on 

Is this a good thing or bad thing!!?so does ecm look better this evening mate?!!

[Mildcarlisle]

Business as usual here in Lewis,not been any ‘heatwave’ and no talk of a ‘breakdown’ from said either however,one comforting fact is,that the weather is perfectly normal here and ‘progged’ to continue as such.

[bluearmy]

7 minutes ago, sheikhy said:

Is this a good thing or bad thing!!?so does ecm look better this evening mate?!!

It’s better in that it removes the upper trough trap over nw europe

however, the mean ecm is growing the sceuro ridge (in comparison to the previous run) at the same time that the op is removing it! 

on the positive side, it also drops the low anomoly further south allowing the Azores ridge to push across the top in the extended 

[sheikhy]

5 minutes ago, bluearmy said:

It’s better in that it removes the upper trough trap over nw europe

however, the mean ecm is growing the sceuro ridge (in comparison to the previous run) at the same time that the op is removing it! 

on the positive side, it also drops the low anomoly further south allowing the Azores ridge to push across the top in the extended 

Yup and quite a dry run i see!!for me anyway!7mm only in the next 10 days!!very dry!!!ukv looks pretty dry for a lot of areas as well up to 120 hours!!whoever gets these storms will know about it though i reckon such shall be the slow moving nature of them!!

[summer blizzard]

Euro has a somewhat more average pattern as the low fills. 

The GFS run is beautiful for those of us ready for Autumn.

[bluearmy]

Eps clusters down to one - could be seeing a move from the ‘miserable’ outlook we’ve had for a while now or it could be a dodgy run 

Edited June 21, 2022 by bluearmy

[Captain Shortwave]

The UKMO appears to follow the ECM suite with high pressure beginning to claw its way back by day 7.

 

The GFS and GEM operationals Keep low pressure in charge. There are some better members within the GFS ensembles. The contrast is quite stark where a couple of hundred miles is the difference between cyclonic conditions and a sunny and very warm southerly.

Edited June 22, 2022 by Captain Shortwave

[SunSean]

13 minutes ago, Captain Shortwave said:

The UKMO appears to follow the ECM suite with high pressure beginning to claw its way back by day 7.

 

The GFS and GEM operationals Keep low pressure in charge. There are some better members within the GFS ensembles. The contrast is quite stark where a couple of hundred miles is the difference between cyclonic conditions and a sunny and very warm southerly.

Yeah just see this. If there was a way to pay the weather gods to ensure we get the warm southerly, i would pay anything they want to them in a shot! Lol.

[mb018538]

1 hour ago, Captain Shortwave said:

The UKMO appears to follow the ECM suite with high pressure beginning to claw its way back by day 7.

 

The GFS and GEM operationals Keep low pressure in charge. There are some better members within the GFS ensembles. The contrast is quite stark where a couple of hundred miles is the difference between cyclonic conditions and a sunny and very warm southerly.

Depends on which half of the country you are in!



The sort of set up showing in most of the output for the coming week looks like potentially being quite wet across the western half of the country. Drier the furhter S/E you head, with the best of the conditions here. 



Meanwhile - the ECM this morning throws up another set of charts much like what we've seen recently, with some very warm/hot unstable air being wafted up:

[bluearmy]

The ec op doesn’t drop yesterdays 12z idea completely and whilst less keen to remove the sceuro ridge, it does sheer the top off it. So should expect the eps to be little less supportive of a strong feature up there in n scandi days 8/10.  

it does present a different route with another cut off low -  thundery for nw europe 

it now seems to be fishing for a new solution post day 6/7. 

Edited June 22, 2022 by bluearmy

[bluearmy]

1 hour ago, bluearmy said:

The ec op doesn’t drop yesterdays 12z idea completely and whilst less keen to remove the sceuro ridge, it does sheer the top off it. So should expect the eps to be little less supportive of a strong feature up there in n scandi days 8/10.  

it does present a different route with another cut off low -  thundery for nw europe 

it now seems to be fishing for a new solution post day 6/7. 

Eps clusters have one option from day 5 …… whilst I could be onboard with that being reasonable to day , beyond that it surely cannot be. 

we have days 3 to 6 on the mean with lower height anoms across the U.K. and away from that period we are in ‘no man’s land’. Of course, no man’s land in June is going to be more often than not decent for surface conditions. 

overall the drift is away from the poor outlook weeks 2 to 3 that we were looking at with a general rise in heights. Of course as was mentioned yesterday this won’t allow for incursions of a day or two of less pleasant conditions from time to time.