Model Output Discussion - Autumn arrives

[bluearmy]

9 minutes ago, Howie said:

Always in time for the weekend it seems 

True but never as bad as it looks from a distance …. Of course those who were soaked for the whole of yesterday may not feel this way but today is very useable for them. 

[sheikhy]

26 minutes ago, bluearmy said:

True but never as bad as it looks from a distance …. Of course those who were soaked for the whole of yesterday may not feel this way but today is very useable for them. 

I can officialy say the gfs was wrong and i got an asbolute soaking from 12pm till 2!!and then 7pm till 11 pm!!!so much cooler today though!!

[Lincs Observation]

24 minutes ago, sheikhy said:

I can officialy say the gfs was wrong and i got an asbolute soaking from 12pm till 2!!and then 7pm till 11 pm!!!so much cooler today though!!

Morning

In lincs it’s been a fairly dry summer so far as yesterdays steady rain gave some relief to the greenery, the issue with sudden downpours is flooding so a day with steady rain is much better. Like I asked the other day I have a sneaky feeling this will be a rinse and repeat scenario for a few weeks, temps will be on the high side at certain points with spells of rain rather than sudden flood downpours like in previous summers. 
 

LO

[Methuselah]

I've nae bothered much with this particular thread, of late. But that heat looks mighty impressive, down over Southern Europe. Even by recent years' standards:

   

   

   

And, to the best of my knowledge, there's no off-the-scale IOD this year?

Edited June 19, 2022 by Ed Stone

[Earthshine]

3 hours ago, Ed Stone said:

I've nae bothered much with this particular thread, of late. But that heat looks mighty impressive, down over Southern Europe. Even by recent years' standards:

   

   

   

And, to the best of my knowledge, there's no off-the-scale IOD this year?

Heat never far away.  Think we're in for a few more surprises this summer.

[Lincs Observation]

1 hour ago, Earthshine said:

Heat never far away.  Think we're in for a few more surprises this summer.

I’m of the same opinion, my best guess would be a ratchet up of the rinse and repeat of Friday on each progression from Southern Europe as the heat continues to build. The evolution each time taking a few days to set in and possibly lasting longer on each ingress. With this in mind I think the chance of storms will now doubt increase as we go along.

now I’m no suthsayer or pro just a very amateur hunch.

 

LO

[Man With Beard]

Agreement on a pretty hot day on Thursday. Won't be far away from 30C if current modelling holds.

[The Tall Weatherman]

The End of the UKV run on Thursday after the heat some storms are showing over central England ! I am going to keep a keen eye on this setup !

[sheikhy]

How are friday saturday looking on ecm ukmo and gfs?!still humid and sunny or unsettled?!!

[summer blizzard]

34 minutes ago, sheikhy said:

How are friday saturday looking on ecm ukmo and gfs?!still humid and sunny or unsettled?!!

Friday looks like it may see showers develop (thundery?), Saturday and Sunday see the front progressing.

[Allseasons-Si]

Well,...now what do we have here then!

last evenings day ten EPS had the upper trough stuck over the UK but this evenings one has it backing or lifting out further NW

i had a feeling that this might be the scenario that plays out later next week onwards as i know this all too well,if you have a block to the E/SE,these are stubborn to shift...

500mb heights,MSLP and temp anomalies

i know that this is just one run and i hope it comes off,yes it may not be a heat wave but it will suit almost everyone with warmer than average temps with some thundery showers knocking about,..upper winds from the SW fluctuating from south maybe at times

i do sense a rinse and repeat in the models over the next week>two weeks with upper trough out west/northwest

have a good evening

Edited June 19, 2022 by Allseasons-si
typo

[mb018538]

Morning all,

There seems to be a growing trend for something more unsettled to finally arrive for us by around Friday/Saturday. Until then it's a nice week - so if sunshine and warmth floats your boat, make the most of the next 4 days.
With increasing temperatures day on day, there is a chance that we could see 30c again by Thursday afternoon:




Beyond this - low pressure really taking over, with cooler conditions and potential for heavy rain.

 

Edited June 20, 2022 by mb018538

[sheikhy]

34 minutes ago, mb018538 said:

Morning all,

There seems to be a growing trend for something more unsettled to finally arrive for us by around Friday/Saturday. Until then it's a nice week - so if sunshine and warmth floats your boat, make the most of the next 4 days.
With increasing temperatures day on day, there is a chance that we could see 30c again by Thursday afternoon:




Beyond this - low pressure really taking over, with cooler conditions and potential for heavy rain.

 

That is not great at all for the weekend!that chart for sunday looks dire!!!more like october or november!!

[Earthshine]

41 minutes ago, mb018538 said:

Morning all,

There seems to be a growing trend for something more unsettled to finally arrive for us by around Friday/Saturday. Until then it's a nice week - so if sunshine and warmth floats your boat, make the most of the next 4 days.
With increasing temperatures day on day, there is a chance that we could see 30c again by Thursday afternoon:




Beyond this - low pressure really taking over, with cooler conditions and potential for heavy rain.

 

Finally arrive?? We've just had a pretty rainy weekend!

[Howie]

58 minutes ago, mb018538 said:

Morning all,

There seems to be a growing trend for something more unsettled to finally arrive for us by around Friday/Saturday. Until then it's a nice week - so if sunshine and warmth floats your boat, make the most of the next 4 days.
With increasing temperatures day on day, there is a chance that we could see 30c again by Thursday afternoon:




Beyond this - low pressure really taking over, with cooler conditions and potential for heavy rain.

 

Do you think there's a chance that this may be toned down or pushed back? It's crazy how it lines up perfectly for the weekend yet again

[seb]

1 hour ago, mb018538 said:

Morning all,

There seems to be a growing trend for something more unsettled to finally arrive for us by around Friday/Saturday. Until then it's a nice week - so if sunshine and warmth floats your boat, make the most of the next 4 days.
With increasing temperatures day on day, there is a chance that we could see 30c again by Thursday afternoon:




Beyond this - low pressure really taking over, with cooler conditions and potential for heavy rain.

 

Just as it happens almost always in the current setup and at this range, most of what is shown will weaken and all but disappear. Even at this time range there’s plenty of data which disagrees with your preferred(?) outcome.

Edited June 20, 2022 by seb

[minus10]

8 hours ago, Allseasons-si said:

Well,...now what do we have here then!

last evenings day ten EPS had the upper trough stuck over the UK but this evenings one has it backing or lifting out further NW

i had a feeling that this might be the scenario that plays out later next week onwards as i know this all too well,if you have a block to the E/SE,these are stubborn to shift...

500mb heights,MSLP and temp anomalies

i know that this is just one run and i hope it comes off,yes it may not be a heat wave but it will suit almost everyone with warmer than average temps with some thundery showers knocking about,..upper winds from the SW fluctuating from south maybe at times

i do sense a rinse and repeat in the models over the next week>two weeks with upper trough out west/northwest

have a good evening

Yes the gfs 0z seemingly in line with the EPS Si  for next week..

Potential for warm weather with thundery showers...again only one run but lets hope this is a trend....

[mb018538]

10 minutes ago, seb said:

Just as it happens almost always in the current setup and at this range, most of what is shown will weaken and all but disappear. Even at this time range there’s plenty of data which disagrees with your preferred(?) outcome.

Is there? Any chance you could show us this 'plenty of data'?

By Sunday/Monday all of the 00z ECM ensembles show low pressure directly over the UK or in very close proximity and dictating the weather. NOAA 6-10 day anoms also have a large trough sat over the UK for day 6-10.



With high pressure starting to develop around Greenland, then there isn't far for it to go. 



Your best hope for now may be something more like the ECM run which holds the trough just far enough out west to allow for a bit of warmth to be shunted up from the south.

[seb]

21 minutes ago, mb018538 said:

Is there? Any chance you could show us this 'plenty of data'?

By Sunday/Monday all of the 00z ECM ensembles show low pressure directly over the UK or in very close proximity and dictating the weather. NOAA 6-10 day anoms also have a large trough sat over the UK for day 6-10.



With high pressure starting to develop around Greenland, then there isn't far for it to go. 



Your best hope for now may be something more like the ECM run which holds the trough just far enough out west to allow for a bit of warmth to be shunted up from the south.

Not much different to what we were presented with this time last week for now, is it? Especially the infamous trough bang on or next to the UK...

The fact that both ECM and GFS ensemble means have temps back to the mid 20s by Wednesday (for the southern half, away from Wales at least) after two days of <20 degrees points to exactly what I said in my earlier post; whatever happens at the end of the week and over the weekend, if it does, is most likely going to turn into another blip. 2-3 days of more typical UK summer weather.

Edited June 20, 2022 by seb

[Methuselah]

43 minutes ago, minus10 said:

Yes the gfs 0z seemingly in line with the EPS Si  for next week..

Potential for warm weather with thundery showers...again only one run but lets hope this is a trend....

That looks reminiscent of what the last three summers have produced, to me: excessive heat away to the SE, and a slack LP system floating around Blighty? Where the LP settles will, I suspect, determine the likely temperature regime; anything from rather cool to rather warm. Things do look quite good for thundery showers, though, whatever the outcome temperature-wise?

Edited June 20, 2022 by Ed Stone

[mountain shadow]

11 minutes ago, seb said:

Not much different to what we were presented with this time last week for now, is it? Especially the infamous trough bang on or next to the UK...

The fact that both ECM and GFS ensemble means have temps back to the mid 20s by Wednesday (for the southern half, away from Wales at least) after two days of <20 degrees points to exactly what I said in my earlier post; whatever happens at the end of the week and over the weekend, if it does, is most likely going to turn into another blip. 2-3 days of more typical UK summer weather.

Yes, only the North West really suffering (as ever) into the weekend and next week if the ECM cumulative rain chart is anything to go by. Very little rain for the South East.

 

[Captain Shortwave]

Good week 2 consistency from the ECM with low pressure lifting out and allowing heights over Europe to edge further north west. The GFS and GEM operational are also sniffing at this now.

A crunch time moment potentially coming as to how this summer will unfold. July was bookmarked for an uptick in fortunes, will the high to east gain the upper hand as we progress into the middle of summer, or will something more unsavoury prevail.

Overall a lot of showers from Friday onwards, but not feeling too bad in the sun and for some temperatures will remain on the warm side.

[mushymanrob]

2 hours ago, seb said:

Not much different to what we were presented with this time last week for now, is it? Especially the infamous trough bang on or next to the UK...

The fact that both ECM and GFS ensemble means have temps back to the mid 20s by Wednesday (for the southern half, away from Wales at least) after two days of <20 degrees points to exactly what I said in my earlier post; whatever happens at the end of the week and over the weekend, if it does, is most likely going to turn into another blip. 2-3 days of more typical UK summer weather.

So, in effect, you havnt got "plenty of data", but point to the charts being wrong once as "evidence" that it is likely to happen again.

Of course nothing is set in stone, and the predicted trough domination from later this week onwards might not materialise.... but when theres strong cross census from all differing predictove sources then the chance of them all being "wrong" is slim, id suggest.

[jules216]

Checking in here from Slovakia. We have been so far spared from the worst(best) of heat this year, on the other hand since start of May only had 3 days of below 20°C Max. Its just been hitting the right temperature interval of 25-29°C mostly with 4 days of over 30°C, nothing like 2003,2012 or 2019(yet). The feeling is however we might be only one southerly away from records it just needs to hit the trajectory Egypt-Italy-Hungary-Ukraine. What does bother me is the severe drought never seen in my life,only 145mm rain since 1.1. this alone adds about a degree to Tmax as less solar energy is expended on evaporation as there in no moisture in soil. This 7 day forecast is just horific. My local corn field today looks like this, in the western part where more rain fell the height is already 4ft, here like 5 Inches. The 2 week trend is a lot of rain in west and north west Europe but nothing is south,south-central or south east. What is unfolding is the worst combination of summer analogs we were talking a lot about from this list - 2003,2007 or 2012. It is taking the hot temperatures from 2003 but dryness of 2012. God help us if longer spells of -NAO develop, they are very hot here. End of report.

[seb]

2 hours ago, mushymanrob said:

So, in effect, you havnt got "plenty of data", but point to the charts being wrong once as "evidence" that it is likely to happen again.

Of course nothing is set in stone, and the predicted trough domination from later this week onwards might not materialise.... but when theres strong cross census from all differing predictove sources then the chance of them all being "wrong" is slim, id suggest.

Of course there’s plenty of data, even just looking at the clustering of the different ensembles. Other than Saturday and Sunday being similar to yesterday there is nothing coming close to any agreement on “Beyond this - low pressure really taking over, with cooler conditions and potential for heavy rain”.

Even on the mean of both GFS and ECM, precipitation in the south is negligible apart from Saturday and temps never fall below 20. In fact, apart from Saturday and possibly Sunday they nicely hover in the mid 20s.

Of course, as per my earlier post, based on history (not just this last weekend), any trough at >T+6 is almost always overstated during setups where heat is firmly established over Western Europe, more so when it’s also in place in the western half of Central Europe.

Again, if we would have taken models (including NOAA anomalies) as presented last Monday as gospel, then right now I’d look out on rain and 18 degrees. Instead we have lovely summer weather.

Edited June 20, 2022 by seb