Model Output Discussion - Autumn arrives

[Scorcher]

49 minutes ago, seb said:

Again, if we would have taken models (including NOAA anomalies) as presented last Monday as gospel, then right now I’d look out on rain and 18 degrees. Instead we have lovely summer weather.

This is very true Seb, it doesn't take much of an adjustment to leave us in great summer conditions at this time of year. Only 4 or 5 days ago we were staring down the barrel of potentially a very cool and unsettled week this week according to the NOAA anomalies.

[sunnijim]

1 hour ago, seb said:

Of course there’s plenty of data, even just looking at the clustering of the different ensembles. Other than Saturday and Sunday being similar to yesterday there is nothing coming close to any agreement on “Beyond this - low pressure really taking over, with cooler conditions and potential for heavy rain”.

Even on the mean of both GFS and ECM, precipitation in the south is negligible apart from Saturday and temps never fall below 20. In fact, apart from Saturday and possibly Sunday they nicely hover in the mid 20s.

Of course, as per my earlier post, based on history (not just this last weekend), any trough at >T+6 is almost always overstated during setups where heat is firmly established over Western Europe, more so when it’s also in place in the western half of Central Europe.

Again, if we would have taken models (including NOAA anomalies) as presented last Monday as gospel, then right now I’d look out on rain and 18 degrees. Instead we have lovely summer weather.

The title of this discussion has been resolved at least, very warm and sunny.

A hunch that I felt was very likely after the 'hot blast' but was shot down in flames for as 'all the data' pointed to a trough dominated Northerly this week.

I have lost count this late Spring and Summer how many times the data has suggested Summer is on hold to day 10,yet the beaches have been full of sun bathers for the majority of the last 5 weeks.

[mb018538]

49 minutes ago, sunnijim said:

The title of this discussion has been resolved at least, very warm and sunny.

A hunch that I felt was very likely after the 'hot blast' but was shot down in flames for as 'all the data' pointed to a trough dominated Northerly this week.

I have lost count this late Spring and Summer how many times the data has suggested Summer is on hold to day 10,yet the beaches have been full of sun bathers for the majority of the last 5 weeks.

Maybe we should do away with all weather models and just go back to forecasting on a hunch then? Like the 1500s or something

[mushymanrob]

2 hours ago, seb said:

Again, if we would have taken models (including NOAA anomalies) as presented last Monday as gospel, then right now I’d look out on rain and 18 degrees. Instead we have lovely summer weather.

 

1 hour ago, Scorcher said:

This is very true Seb, it doesn't take much of an adjustment to leave us in great summer conditions at this time of year. Only 4 or 5 days ago we were staring down the barrel of potentially a very cool and unsettled week this week according to the NOAA anomalies.

 The prediction was "below average unsettled", or cool if you want. The prediction was never "very cool with rain". Unsettled allows for transient ridges to produce a nice day here and there when youre talking the mean charts.

Its true that so far the NOAA Anomalies have not called this spell bang on..... NO suite does... but they are the best at identifying the emerging pattern in the timeframe they cover... i know this to be true, as ive researched them over the last 7-8 years...John Holmes who first brought this to light even longer.

Im not sure why you are trying to deny so fervently what is very obvious... Low pressure is going to be in charge bringing cool showery conditions, in my 17 years of model watching, i have never seen such agreement as this be wrong. The Anomaly chart is centred on the 27th, the ECM and GFS charts are the average charts for the 27th. This isnt a borderline issue here... theres no alternatives, and its certainly not what i want to see!!!!! But these charts are about as solid as you can get.... ok, the detail isnt nailed and wont be until much nearer the time... This is what is predicted for a weeks time...

[seb]

8 minutes ago, mb018538 said:

Maybe we should do away with all weather models and just go back to forecasting on a hunch then? Like the 1500s or something

No but I think we can all agree not to state something with certainty if it is 6 days away, even if two models agree.

We don’t have access to many things which the pros do so applying some historic knowledge and also taking the MetO mid range forecast into consideration, and dare I say, even some of the automated apps that show 14 days (none of which show any cool washout conditions after Sunday) is helpful when looking at what we have access to.

[Guest]

I don't think Scorcher is denying what the NOAA, GFS, ECM charts show, more that it wouldn't take much to shift the worst of the conditions further north and west and leave many areas further south and east in a continuation of summer. The NOAA charts aren't capable of picking up such subtle shifts in the broader pattern. It's why we still have a significant number of GFS members clustering well above the operational in terms of SLP towards the end of the month, either from a weaker upper trough or a re-position further to the NW.

It is highly likely that we switch to a cooler and more unsettled period of weather come the weekend - across a wider area, but for low long and how significantly so? We're talking fine margins here and the heat remains close by. I'm not sure there's any confidence at all in low pressure dominating for long, away from the far north and west  

Edited June 20, 2022 by Steel City Skies

[seb]

2 minutes ago, mushymanrob said:

 

 The prediction was "below average unsettled", or cool if you want. The prediction was never "very cool with rain". Unsettled allows for transient ridges to produce a nice day here and there when youre talking the mean charts.

Its true that so far the NOAA Anomalies have not called this spell bang on..... NO suite does... but they are the best at identifying the emerging pattern in the timeframe they cover... i know this to be true, as ive researched them over the last 7-8 years...John Holmes who first brought this to light even longer.

Im not sure why you are trying to deny so fervently what is very obvious... Low pressure is going to be in charge bringing cool showery conditions, in my 17 years of model watching, i have never seen such agreement as this be wrong. The Anomaly chart is centred on the 27th, the ECM and GFS charts are the average charts for the 27th. This isnt a borderline issue here... theres no alternatives, and its certainly not what i want to see!!!!! But these charts are about as solid as you can get.... ok, the detail isnt nailed and wont be until much nearer the time... This is what is predicted for a weeks time...

For two days (next weekend), if it comes off, not “beyond this” (i.e. from Friday for the foreseeable future) as stated in the post I responded to.

And that is summed up perfectly in the MetO mid range forecast.

A generally unsettled start to the period as a band of potentially heavy rain continues to move east across the UK on Saturday. This is followed by sunny spells and showers, some heavy and possibly thundery. Sunny spells and showers, the latter being most frequent in the north, continue to dominate into the start of next week. It may be rather windy at times, especially in the north and west. Near normal or rather cool temperatures are expected. Further into the period, showers are likely to continue, being most prevalent initially in the north and west, and later in the north and east. Southern parts will probably see more in the way of dry weather. Conditions look to become more settled by the start of July as high pressure builds.

[Frosty.]

Fingers crossed early July will look something like these 6z perturbations which I’ve just cherry picked  from the mostly steaming pile of Dino doo-doo ️ 

 

[Scorcher]

50 minutes ago, mushymanrob said:

Im not sure why you are trying to deny so fervently what is very obvious... Low pressure is going to be in charge bringing cool showery conditions, in my 17 years of model watching, i have never seen such agreement as this be wrong. The Anomaly chart is centred on the 27th, the ECM and GFS charts are the average charts for the 27th. This isnt a borderline issue here... theres no alternatives, and its certainly not what i want to see!!!!! But these charts are about as solid as you can get.... ok, the detail isnt nailed and wont be until much nearer the time... This is what is predicted for a weeks time...

Not denying anything Mushy, all I'm saying is what you've admitted yourself- that the anomaly charts haven't been on the money this week. Although I agree they are one of the best ways of understanding the direction of travel, I don't think they are a panacea of forecasting by any means- they are wrong too sometimes.

[Methuselah]

43 minutes ago, Scorcher said:

Not denying anything Mushy, all I'm saying is what you've admitted yourself- that the anomaly charts haven't been on the money this week. Although I agree they are one of the best ways of understanding the direction of travel, I don't think they are a panacea of forecasting by any means- they are wrong too sometimes.

Aye, I would agree with that, Scorcher, no models/charts/human interpretations can ever be 100% correct. And, when it comes to unexpected (and often only minor) pressure drops around Iberia, the resultant changes to wind-vectors can make all the difference between a transient hot southerly and a much less noteworthy Atlantic southwesterly -- in a global sense the difference is minuscule? I guess that's why I've spent the last 20-odd-years divining 'anomalies' from the normal daily flip-flopping of deterministic model-runs?

And, the next 16 days? Who the devil knows!

Anyway, here's the Met Office's Weekly:

 

Edited June 20, 2022 by Ed Stone

[I remember Atlantic 252]

41 minutes ago, Scorcher said:

Not denying anything Mushy, all I'm saying is what you've admitted yourself- that the anomaly charts haven't been on the money this week. Although I agree they are one of the best ways of understanding the direction of travel, I don't think they are a panacea of forecasting by any means- they are wrong too sometimes.

good, don't understand 'um, I just stick to basics on the main models

[TomB]

Is there still room for change for the weekend from what the models show now? Thanks.

I will be at Glastonbury  

[sunnijim]

1 hour ago, mb018538 said:

Maybe we should do away with all weather models and just go back to forecasting on a hunch then? Like the 1500s or something

it was not  quite a case of sticking two wet fingers in the air or checking the consistency of seaweed for the hunch,

Can't find the post I made a week ago,but my take on the models then was that ridging of the High across the UK was a likely result rather than the Atlantic ridge and UK troughing.

[clark3r]

Warm 3/4 days ahead then much cooler for the weekend again, next week looks changeable but too early to call 

[Bradley in Kent]

It's looking like a block will be settling up over Scandi this weekend.

These can be high risk high reward; if the blocking high is more east, you just allow lows to come barrelling in shoving warm air away, but if the high is slightly more south and west, lows will still be around but scooping in more continental air from the south.

Of course, we'll need to look at the Atlantic, best case is a deep trough out in the middle allowing Scandi heights to build further west with lows stalling west of Ireland. 

If we get Mid-atlantic heights, I'm afraid there's only one place those lows will go...

[ANYWEATHER]

Looks horrible for the weekend, hope the the precipitation charts are wrong as well.

[StormChaseUK]

3 minutes ago, ANYWEATHER said:

Looks horrible for the weekend, hope the the precipitation charts are wrong as well.

Oh abc what is it about weekends,  lol

[sparky1972]

35 minutes ago, StormChaseUK said:

Oh abc what is it about weekends,  lol

lets hope the weekend of the 2nd July bucks the trend and is dry, my 50th birthday party in the garden, lol

[jamesthemonkeh]

Possibility of a fair soaking for some areas on Saturday, though UKMO not interested.

[Bansobaby]

On the matter of the anomaly charts: I’m fairly new to all this but always am fascinated by the posts on the anomaly charts by the likes of John Holmes, it seemed like voodoo to start with.

But genuine question…… surely the anomaly charts are not capable of picking up the nuances such as we had a few days ago, i.e. 40 degrees in northern France and 12 degrees literally 100 miles away??

I understand that the geography of Northern Europe and the UK in particular presents macro scale weather anomalies, but the charts we are looking at NOAA etc don’t really pick them up, or do they??

I suppose that what I’m trying to ask is: can the anomaly forecasts be broadly speaking correct, but the on the day actual weather in any given spot in the UK absolutely the opposite?

Looking back on the last couple of sentences, I reckon I can answer the question myself:      
 

yes, absolutely, its the weather…..

[Earthshine]

A couple of plumey Bois but generally temperatures recovering after a cooler spell this weekend.  Fabulous weather in the meantime, hope everyone can find at least a bit of time to enjoy the sunshine!

[mushymanrob]

4 hours ago, seb said:

For two days (next weekend), if it comes off, not “beyond this” (i.e. from Friday for the foreseeable future) as stated in the post I responded to.

And that is summed up perfectly in the MetO mid range forecast.

A generally unsettled start to the period as a band of potentially heavy rain continues to move east across the UK on Saturday. This is followed by sunny spells and showers, some heavy and possibly thundery. Sunny spells and showers, the latter being most frequent in the north, continue to dominate into the start of next week. It may be rather windy at times, especially in the north and west. Near normal or rather cool temperatures are expected. Further into the period, showers are likely to continue, being most prevalent initially in the north and west, and later in the north and east. Southern parts will probably see more in the way of dry weather. Conditions look to become more settled by the start of July as high pressure builds.

Whats the point of a model discussion thread if we dont discuss what the models show?
The models and anomalies DO suggest at this point in time that low pressure to our near North is set to dominate from the weekend onwards with no major change for the foreseeable future .... Thats what the models are suggesting... now if you can find any "evidence" that this is in any doubt other than an unsupported, unreasoned, opinion then please present it!
We all know that the current model projections are liable to change, we all know that no model suite is perfect, all you are doing is stating the obvious thats taken as read anyway!
The models all suggest that itll be on the cool side and unsettled from Friday onwards... Yes it might well start to settle down towards the start of July, lets hope so! but the cooler unsettled spell is certainly longer then "two days", according to what all the current output says!
 

3 hours ago, Scorcher said:

Not denying anything Mushy, all I'm saying is what you've admitted yourself- that the anomaly charts haven't been on the money this week. Although I agree they are one of the best ways of understanding the direction of travel, I don't think they are a panacea of forecasting by any means- they are wrong too sometimes.

Then we are on the same page

Edit... the latest NOAA chart into July doesnt suggest much of a change is likely, with troughing in control. Maybe this is wrong, maybe not... lets just see.
 

Edited June 20, 2022 by mushymanrob

[seb]

10 minutes ago, mushymanrob said:

Whats the point of a model discussion thread if we dont discuss what the models show?
The models and anomalies DO suggest at this point in time that low pressure to our near North is set to dominate from the weekend onwards with no major change for the foreseeable future .... Thats what the models are suggesting... now if you can find any "evidence" that this is in any doubt other than an unsupported, unreasoned, opinion then please present it!
We all know that the current model projections are liable to change, we all know that no model suite is perfect, all you are doing is stating the obvious thats taken as read anyway!
The models all suggest that itll be on the cool side and unsettled from Friday onwards... Yes it might well start to settle down towards the start of July, lets hope so! but the cooler unsettled spell is certainly longer then "two days", according to what all the current output says!
 

Then we are on the same page

Edit... the latest NOAA chart into July doesnt suggest much of a change is likely, with troughing in control. Maybe this is wrong, maybe not... lets just see.
 

But the models are not showing no change for the foreseeable future after the weekend. Both the ECM and the GFS have temps recovering quickly to the mid twenties and negligible precipitation away from the NW. The scatter of the individual ensembles is wider than for this week but we both know that this is always the case for >T+6.

Pointing that out does not mean there is nothing to discuss. 

[MATTWOLVES 3]

22 minutes ago, mushymanrob said:

Whats the point of a model discussion thread if we dont discuss what the models show?
The models and anomalies DO suggest at this point in time that low pressure to our near North is set to dominate from the weekend onwards with no major change for the foreseeable future .... Thats what the models are suggesting... now if you can find any "evidence" that this is in any doubt other than an unsupported, unreasoned, opinion then please present it!
We all know that the current model projections are liable to change, we all know that no model suite is perfect, all you are doing is stating the obvious thats taken as read anyway!
The models all suggest that itll be on the cool side and unsettled from Friday onwards... Yes it might well start to settle down towards the start of July, lets hope so! but the cooler unsettled spell is certainly longer then "two days", according to what all the current output says!
 

Then we are on the same page

Edit... the latest NOAA chart into July doesnt suggest much of a change is likely, with troughing in control. Maybe this is wrong, maybe not... lets just see.
 

Hey Rob... I think your getting suckered Into a debate on what model data is the most accurate on here...I think some agree with you and some don't...thats just the way of the world..  Like you say all models are prone to errors! Many models the other week had this week down as cool and showery,and that was a forecast being issued by several online weather sites!

Those Noaa charts are mixed at best for the 6-10 day period but subject to change as you and John would be well aware...The fact is you do a very good job with the updates on them,and John H is a master of them with many years experience,so credit and respect as to be given regarding them.

Like others have said a cracking week this week for many....mid to high 20s possible....it does break come Friday with the weekend looking less promising,especially the first part of the Weekend!

Beyond that showers and sunny spells,and most likely that further South and S/E the better the conditions...very fine margins on temps being average or tapping Into warmer conditions at times. I'm still thinking July could be the month that delivers proper Summer...and a chance of some good heat spikes.

Tonight's ECM perhaps hinting at those late month improvements,and perhaps being backed up by tonight's mean.

Big up Netweather have a positively balmy week ahead.

[mushymanrob]

20 minutes ago, seb said:

But the models are not showing no change for the foreseeable future after the weekend. Both the ECM and the GFS have temps recovering quickly to the mid twenties and negligible precipitation away from the NW. The scatter of the individual ensembles is wider than for this week but we both know that this is always the case for >T+6.

Pointing that out does not mean there is nothing to discuss. 

But that is simply not true! They do not show "temps recovering quickly to the mid 20's " .... the only place to get anywhere near that is the Southeast whilst the majority of the Country have average at best, but mostly below average. And theres rain/showers in the forecast EVERY DAY on both the latest GFS and ECM runs... see for yourself.

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