Snow and Ice in the Northern Hemisphere: Winter 22/23

[Midlands Ice Age]

16 hours ago, Aleman said:

N. Hemisphere sea ice is building well at the moment but snow extent has fallen back. Significant snow is expected down the Rockies, possibly to the Mexican border this weekend, though, so that might get it back on track.

 

I will also point out that  the chart above, also shows the extension of the snow into central/western Russia over the weekend and early next week, even up into Scandinavia..

MIA

[Katrine Basso]

 

IMS Snow and Ice Charts

USICECENTER.GOV

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U.S. National Ice Center's Interactive Multisensor Snow and Ice Mapping System (IMS) daily snow and ice charts for the Northern Hemisphere.

 

[Midlands Ice Age]

As it is pouring down with rain here, I thought I'd look at an update on the general weather patterns in the NH.

About 10 days ago, I mentioned that Cambrian had put a long range chart onto the MOD, which dictated a complete about-turn in the Arctic.

Well it seems a brilliant forecast,  and that change is well underway.

The Climate Reanalyser shows this perfectly...

Instead of the intense low pressure of 10 days ago, centrered around Chuckchi and Laptev, we have a major high cell centrered to the north of Alaska and joining up with the Greenland high to form a block. It even looks as if its trying to join up with the Azores high. 

The Arctic high pressure seems to be gradually extending northwards, and is pushing the old,  now filling,  chuckchi low pressure southwest-wards towards the Russian coastline. At the same time another low is forming towards the Bering Straits.

The net impact of the changes are that we are returning to the situation which prevailed before the Chuckchi low developed, and is now forecast to being dominated by an anticyclone. This will cause a complete turnaround on the ocean winds  in the Arctic. 

See the CR for 3days time and see the Arctic high being circled by all the depressions once again, It reminds  me of a wolf pack.

The likely impact that we will see is that  the lows will be pushed more into Russia, causing more snowfall (and as the temps are falling) snow will be extending westwards towqrds Europe over there. The same sitiuation appliies to the North of America where the cyclonic situation is already taking over.   >>I expect more snowfall there also, as reported by Aleman above.

As for the sea ice,  the change likely to happen is that northern Russian ice development will go into the 'opposite' oceans..

 I think we will soon see that the eastwards ice extensions into Chuckchi towards the Bering will halt around Wrangel Island, as the winds will become easterly.  However as the winds start to back clockwise towards the WNW to the south of the high (pullingin the colder Arctic airmass) we will see increases in  Beaufort (towards Alaska).  Again,  I expect this to happen very soon.

The other change likely to happen is that northern Russian ice development will go into 'reverse'. Not literally, but in other corners/directions. However, before that happens, Laptev will rapidly complete its infill (from the ESE), and the current slow build up of ice in Kara will accelerate and start  to move towards the Berants Sea.    Again  driven by the NE  strengthening winds.

This latter region (Kara,Berants)  has been in 'slow' mode for the last10 days, as the winds have been feeding in from the Atlantic. A switch to NE will have some impact there. 

So, another change is occuring, but (of some interest) will it eventually affect us?

OR,        will I be incorrect, and instead it all changes again.

MIA 

Edited October 21, 2022 by Midlands Ice Age

[Midlands Ice Age]

1 hour ago, Midlands Ice Age said:

As it is pouring down with rain here, I thought I'd look at an update on the general weather patterns in the NH.

About 10 days ago, I mentioned that Cambrian had put a long range chart onto the MOD, which dictated a complete about-turn in the Arctic.

Well it seems a brilliant forecast,  and that change is well underway.

The Climate Reanalyser shows this perfectly...

Instead of the intense low pressure of 10 days ago, centrered around Chuckchi and Laptev, we have a major high cell centrered to the north of Alaska and joining up with the Greenland high to form a block. It even looks as if its trying to join up with the Azores high. 

The Arctic high pressure seems to be gradually extending northwards, and is pushing the old,  now filling,  chuckchi low pressure southwest-wards towards the Russian coastline. At the same time another low is forming towards the Bering Straits.

The net impact of the changes are that we are returning to the situation which prevailed before the Chuckchi low developed, and is now forecast to being dominated by an anticyclone. This will cause a complete turnaround on the ocean winds  in the Arctic. 

See the CR for 3days time and see the Arctic high being circled by all the depressions once again, It reminds  me of a wolf pack.

The likely impact that we will see is that  the lows will be pushed more into Russia, causing more snowfall (and as the temps are falling) snow will be extending westwards towqrds Europe over there. The same sitiuation appliies to the North of America where the cyclonic situation is already taking over.   >>I expect more snowfall there also, as reported by Aleman above.

As for the sea ice,  the change likely to happen is that northern Russian ice development will go into the 'opposite' oceans..

 I think we will soon see that the eastwards ice extensions into Chuckchi towards the Bering will halt around Wrangel Island, as the winds will become easterly.  However as the winds start to back clockwise towards the WNW to the south of the high (pullingin the colder Arctic airmass) we will see increases in  Beaufort (towards Alaska).  Again,  I expect this to happen very soon.

The other change likely to happen is that northern Russian ice development will go into 'reverse'. Not literally, but in other corners/directions. However, before that happens, Laptev will rapidly complete its infill (from the ESE), and the current slow build up of ice in Kara will accelerate and start  to move towards the Berants Sea.    Again  driven by the NE  strengthening winds.

This latter region (Kara,Berants)  has been in 'slow' mode for the last10 days, as the winds have been feeding in from the Atlantic. A switch to NE will have some impact there. 

So, another change is occuring, but (of some interest) will it eventually affect us?

OR,        will I be incorrect, and instead it all changes again.

MIA 

PS  What is happening to the Polar Vortex this year?

[Midlands Ice Age]

Latest update from Masie is showing a reduced rate of increase in the ice extent over the last 2days... (+63k, followed today by +77K).  

Not totally unexpected, since  as discussed above, we are in the middle of a change of weather regime up there.

It leaves us slightly behind the rapid advance recorded last year, though well above the previous 5years records..

Today most ocean areas recorded small increases (5K - 10k), with the exception of the CAA which dropped by 18K, and both the Laptev and Kara which showed increases of (+16K) and (+13K) respectively, and as I suggested prev. a good increase of (+31K) in the Beaufort Sea.

It could be the start of a trend for the next phase of the ice refreeze.

MIA

 

Edited October 21, 2022 by Midlands Ice Age

[Geordiesnow]

What an interesting Autumn this has been over Eurasia, from a chilly September to a very warm October and it's little wonder snowcover is struggling to expand. Then I see the temperature anaomolies and they are just utterly depressing too see quite frankly, probably less than 20% of the northern hemisphere is below average with little areas seeing significant below average temperatures. 

Im not one of those that believes a rapid snow cover increase can increase a cold winter theory, I just don't buy into it but what I do buy into is near record breaking temperatures will mean it will be exceptionally difficult to get a cold winter for the UK. Chilly spells and even snow events can't be ruled out but the PV lobes are just much weaker these days(gone are the days you see uppers of - 40hpa in the Arctic for example). 

[SteveB]

Unfortunately I have to agree with you. 

Something must be very wrong, if at the beginning of the Winter season, I'm wondering if I'll see any snow at all this season. 

We live in depressing times in an equally depressing Country if it's snow and cold you like. 

[jonboy]

Good to see the doom and gloom has started early this year means we have a better chance of cold and snow latter!

[Penrith Snow]

I am hoping to go to Chamonix in the French Alps next month to see some early snow but have just looked at the forecast and next Thursday the temperature at 3,000 feet is forecast to be 22c!

Won't be much snow at that temperature but I might get a tan.

Surely temperatures like that will be record breaking for late October and doesn't bode well for the coming winter  

Andy

[Don]

2 hours ago, Penrith Snow said:

I am hoping to go to Chamonix in the French Alps next month to see some early snow but have just looked at the forecast and next Thursday the temperature at 3,000 feet is forecast to be 22c!

Won't be much snow at that temperature but I might get a tan.

Surely temperatures like that will be record breaking for late October and doesn't bode well for the coming winter  

Andy

It's difficult to get things to bode well for our winters these days with climate change really kicking in!

[SteveB]

44 minutes ago, Don said:

It's difficult to get things to bode well for our winters these days with climate change really kicking in!

It loathes me to say it, but I think you're right. 

[Dorsetbred]

4 hours ago, Penrith Snow said:

I am hoping to go to Chamonix in the French Alps next month to see some early snow but have just looked at the forecast and next Thursday the temperature at 3,000 feet is forecast to be 22c!

Won't be much snow at that temperature but I might get a tan.

Surely temperatures like that will be record breaking for late October and doesn't bode well for the coming winter  

Andy

Go North young man go North. First snow covering today in Finland AND you get the Northern Lights as an added treat

The person made slope is already taking skiers

Edited October 22, 2022 by Dorsetbred

[Don]

I think the slow build up of snow over Eurasia and Scandinavia does not bode well for winter.

[Midlands Ice Age]

6 minutes ago, Don said:

I think the slow build up of snow over Eurasia and Scandinavia does not bode well for winter.

I think.....     Who knows.....  as it is still very early in the refreeze season.

Sea ice extent is at number 8 highest in the last 16 years. The build up above Russia has been  better than average.

Snow cover is also still within the average ranges for the middle of October..

Both have had a set back caused by the Chukchi cyclone of 2 weeks ago, as previously both were above average for the last 10 years..

It looks as if there may well be a shift westwards of the cold and snow from Russia next week. Though it has never extended to Europe this early, and I would be amazed if it happens this year.

Early November is when the first snows can reach Moscow,  not Berlin. 

You guys should be less expectant and downbeat.

Look on the bright side - a warm winter in Europe coud save us from excessive energy charges. 

MIA 

   

[Don]

23 minutes ago, Midlands Ice Age said:

Look on the bright side - a warm winter in Europe coud save us from excessive energy charges.    

I know where you're coming from and yes that's true, however as I've said before, hypothetically I could not imagine many heat seekers not moaning about the prospect of a washout summer, even if it were a case that it could save us from severe drought.  That said what will be will be!

Edited October 22, 2022 by Don

[Midlands Ice Age]

19 hours ago, Geordiesnow said:

What an interesting Autumn this has been over Eurasia, from a chilly September to a very warm October and it's little wonder snowcover is struggling to expand. Then I see the temperature anaomolies and they are just utterly depressing too see quite frankly, probably less than 20% of the northern hemisphere is below average with little areas seeing significant below average temperatures. 

 

can increase a cold winter theory, I just don't buy into it but what I do buy into is near record breaking temperatures will mean it will be exceptionally difficult to get a cold winter for the UK. Chilly spells and even snow events can't be ruled out but the PV lobes are just much weaker these days(gone are the days you see uppers of - 40hpa in the Arctic for example). 

GS..

After your note I looked into  this. I was expecting much worse after reading your doom laden note above..

Today is showing  the highest the world temperature has been for about 2 months  Over this period the average  has been between +0.1C and +0.3C.  with the NH being around +0.5C and the SH around -0.2C.

It seems to have been the last week that it has warmed up a bit.

I am not  certain where you see less than 20% being cold in the NH.

  

I admit that the warm blobs are 'warmer' currently in the NH, but as KW has been posting in the other NH thread it has not stopped many cold temperature records being set during this time and manysome  areas in N.A. have had there earliest snows since the 19th century. 

The pattern above is an almost perfect fit for a La Nina temperature distribution pattern, with a cold southern hemisphere (particulalry South America and Africa) and the warmth transferred northwards into the Northern Hemisphere..

I think we need to wait about 1month until winter is due to take hold (Its still currently mid Autumn), before we declare the NH winter a disaster.

In the mean time I'll continue to monitor the temperatures and report them in my reports.

 

Edited October 22, 2022 by Midlands Ice Age

[Katrine Basso]

IMS Snow and Ice Charts

USICECENTER.GOV

---

U.S. National Ice Center's Interactive Multisensor Snow and Ice Mapping System (IMS) daily snow and ice charts for the Northern Hemisphere.

 

[Bradley in Kent]

I get the idea that early cold means estabshed pools the UK can tap into into winter. However over the years October snow cover in thr NH has apparently increased as per attached graph. 

It's fair to say early snows do not guarantee anything especially for the UK, in fact, you could even argue the opposite!

[ANYWEATHER]

9 minutes ago, Bradley in Kent said:

I get the idea that early cold means estabshed pools the UK can tap into into winter. However over the years October snow cover in thr NH has apparently increased as per attached graph. 

It's fair to say early snows do not guarantee anything especially for the UK, in fact, you could even argue the opposite!

 

Thanks for the graph.....of note as you say is the increase of snow cover in the last two decades or so, from the late 1990s. What is of note ,is that the early 1980s had well below average snowfall for October . Late 1981/82 had an exceptionally cold spell with record lows ,minus 23c recorded in Shropshire during January of 1982 and metres of snowdrifts. So the concept of above average early snowfalls in the Northern Hemisphere, have no implications whatsoever for the upcoming Winter in the UK when record low snowfall in the Northern Hemisphere back in 1981/82 gave the UK one of its coldest Winters of the 20th century

[Aleman]

We still seem to get some people who get very gloomy about the prospects of seeing snow on the back of a short period of very warm weather or very low snowfalls yet historical records show snow levels can vary tremendously over short periods of time. Northern Hemisphere snow extent has a history of varying considerably away from its central trend from month to month:

Rutgers University Climate Lab :: Global Snow Lab

CLIMATE.RUTGERS.EDU

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Rutgers University Global Snow Lab

The lesson is that regional weather can still cause massive winter weather events. We've even had articles explaining why unusually high levels of cold and snow in some places (e.g. Texas in Feb 2021 when Houston hit -12C and oil rigs in the Gulf of Mexico had equpiment freeze up) are still consistent with global warming and falling sea ice levels. So the prospects of snow in the UK have probably not really dipped a great deal despite warmer temperatures and lower sea ice. When weather systems can swing temperatures +/-10C or even +/-20C on rare occasions, and warming only amounts to a fraction of a degree per decade, there is still plenty of potential for an unusual weather system to bring weather to the UK that that will be so cold or snowy that it will cause massive disruption and damage. Indeed, statistically you can almost guarantee it will happen in coming decades, even if we continue to see a gradual reduction in numbers of moderate cold and snow events.

Edited October 23, 2022 by Aleman

[ANYWEATHER]

9 minutes ago, ANYWEATHER said:

Thanks for the graph.....of note as you say is the increase of snow cover in the last two decades or so, from the late 1990s. What is of note ,is that the early 1980s had well below average snowfall for October . Late 1981/82 had an exceptionally cold spell with record lows ,minus 23c recorded in Shropshire during January of 1982 and metres of snowdrifts. So the concept of above average early snowfalls in the Northern Hemisphere, have no implications whatsoever for the upcoming Winter in the UK when record low snowfall in the Northern Hemisphere back in 1981/82 gave the UK one of its coldest Winters of the 20th century

PS,  1978 was another very cold Winter, with record low October snowfall.

[SteveB]

I love your optimism, however, there is no escaping the fact that we are breaking more warm records than cold. And doesn't seem to be changing anytime soon. 

While the rest of the Northern hemisphere can still get cold and snowy Winters, even record breaking cold Winters. The UK and indeed Western Europe seem to be stuck in a perpetual mild/warm pattern. 

I fear the same thing happening this Winter as it did in Summer, high temperature records being broken. 

I love this thread, because it allows me to see what cold and snowy weather looks like,  while sitting here at home admiring the warm Autumn weather. 

[Catacol]

1 hour ago, Aleman said:

So the prospects of snow in the UK have probably not really dipped a great deal despite warmer temperatures and lower sea ice. When weather systems can swing temperatures +/-10C or even +/-20C on rare occasions, and warming only amounts to a fraction of a degree per decade, there is still plenty of potential for an unusual weather system to bring weather to the UK that that will be so cold or snowy that it will cause massive disruption and damage. Indeed, statistically you can almost guarantee it will happen in coming decades, even if we continue to see a gradual reduction in numbers of moderate cold and snow events.

A grain of truth in an otherwise off target assessment. Snow chances in the U.K. are reducing apace - the warmer sources of air to both north and east are well documented and observable. The sub tropical highs are edging north. The cooling stratosphere is enhancing vortex strength on average as the years roll by. It is true that extreme weather events are becoming more extreme as forecast by CC models, but few of these are of the icy cold variety. We will see more heat records, more storms emerging from the tropics to higher latitudes as our oceans warm. The U.K. is in absolutely the wrong place to avoid the warmest/wettest winter impacts of these.

The grain of truth lies in the ongoing chances of vortex disruption. Observation may be hinting that a warming world means more frequent vortex disruption events but in truth we don’t have the longitudinal record to be confident of that. And unless the vortex splits these events are not guaranteed to bring anything remarkable. 

I agree that extreme events will occur and at some point snow will feature. I was in Santiago in 2007 when they saw snow at sea level for the first time in 40 years. These things happen. But we may also be edging ever closer to a context where, when they DO happen, our media will be reporting on “heaviest snow for 15 years” - because lowland snow in the south will become that rare. I say this with no joy whatever. I think we have passed a fairly substantial global tipping point in climate and for our generation there is no going back. Perhaps our grandchildren might see temperatures stabilise. Or perhaps politicians will continue to fail to act, and extremes magnified by +2 global averages will become an ongoing nightmare for many.

[SteveB]

10 minutes ago, Catacol said:

A grain of truth in an otherwise off target assessment. Snow chances in the U.K. are reducing apace - the warmer sources of air to both north and east are well documented and observable. The sub tropical highs are edging north. The cooling stratosphere is enhancing vortex strength on average as the years roll by. It is true that extreme weather events are becoming more extreme as forecast by CC models, but few of these are of the icy cold variety. We will see more heat records, more storms emerging from the tropics to higher latitudes as our oceans warm. The U.K. is in absolutely the wrong place to avoid the warmest/wettest winter impacts of these.

The grain of truth lies in the ongoing chances of vortex disruption. Observation may be hinting that a warming world means more frequent vortex disruption events but in truth we don’t have the longitudinal record to be confident of that. And unless the vortex splits these events are not guaranteed to bring anything remarkable. 

I agree that extreme events will occur and at some point snow will feature. I was in Santiago in 2007 when they saw snow at sea level for the first time in 40 years. These things happen. But we may also be edging ever closer to a context where, when they DO happen, our media will be reporting on “heaviest snow for 15 years” - because lowland snow in the south will become that rare. I say this with no joy whatever. I think we have passed a fairly substantial global tipping point in climate and for our generation there is no going back. Perhaps our grandchildren might see temperatures stabilise. Or perhaps politicians will continue to fail to act, and extremes magnified by +2 global averages will become an ongoing nightmare for many.

So sad to hear, but so very true.

[Aleman]

To get back on topic:

There's lots of new snow and ice after a bit of a pause. The main pack has linked to Alaska/Yukon and the low that brought those northerlies has driven widespread snow down the western USA, almost to the Mexican border. There's a bonus the latest system bringing some westward expansion to Russia. Meanwhile, Laptev is filling in.

Edited October 24, 2022 by Aleman