Model Output Discussion - Deeper into Autumn

[LRD]

ECM - synoptics great.

Uppers awful

Got a 2020-21 feel about this - terrific patterns but not enough cold air.

That wasn't helped by a Kazakhstan high that winter which often mixed in warm air from the SE med

Having said that if the pattern does persist, I'm sure those warmer uppers will be washed out and proper cold will come in. Looking good but not quite convinced so far

Edited November 23, 2022 by LRD

[MATTWOLVES 3]

5 minutes ago, Bradley in Kent said:

Evening all, hope everyone is well.

Like many in the past couple of days I've started to tentatively look out for the building blocks.

Obviously way, WAY too early to anticipate but put it this way, I'd rather have cold members in the mix rather than complete mild full house. At least there are avenues to go down where there's a chance of something seasonal.

We all know it can and in all likelihood will go wrong, but if it's full house mild there's no route at all where it's a no show for at least another fortnight.

Not having a dig mate but this if it can go wrong it will go wrong attitude seems to be a weather fanatics...(who is desperate for a certain outcome mentality! Either that or people who have confidence and negativity issues who feel the best outcome will never happen.

The weather is a fantastic and mysterious beast and it as know friends or enemies when it comes to what it may or may not throw at us.

Not a dig at you good man,just a reminder for some that all good things come to those who are prepared to wait and have a little patience

Edited November 23, 2022 by MATTWOLVES

[Methuselah]

Who'da thunk it... the GFS12Z operational run was a partial outlier!

    

[TSNWK]

26 minutes ago, Beanz said:

It's been asked every year, but unfortunately it's not a popular choice (but I do agree with you).  I'm sitting here wondering why we're discussing the possibility of cold at 16 days out...I get the 'trends' argument, but every year it's the same formula. 

384hr "BFTE v.2" -> 264hr "MetO and ECM must come on side" -> 240hr "GFS is rubbish" -> 168hr "winter is over" 

 

 

And that precisely is all part of the sport and fun in this place.

[bluearmy]

Housekeeping on the day 15/16 gefs run to run variance has goodish and possible less good news

06z to 00z                                                          12z to 06z

      

whilst we see euro heights dropping back again (although not to the depth of the 00z mean), to our west, we see a possible failure of any mid Atlantic ridging and the 00z strong s greeny upper ridge looks in doubt now 

my take is that the current output makes southerly tracking lows meeting undercutting continental cold air more likely 

12z mean day 15

 

 

[Kasim Awan]

I haven't seen such convincing charts at this stage in the season since 2012. As coldies we should be grateful at the output on offer, and relish in the potential that could result rather than focus on any perceived negatives regarding specific uppers etc.

[damianslaw]

Strong synergies between GFS 12z and Ecm crucially just within the reliable, which I usually class as 120 hrs. Both show the azores high ridging north into the atlantic early next week, allowing amplification of the atlantic trough ahead, and then squeezes the shallow feature away allowing the azores high to link in with the very strong heights out to our NE. End result is an easterly flow, at first perhaps not bringing much cold air, but in time things would become much colder, with the signal for heights to ridge west and north as highlighted by GFS 12z.  A 1055mb high to our east against a weak atlantic will take some beating to fend off..

Edited November 23, 2022 by damianslaw

[LRD]

1 minute ago, Kasim Awan said:

I haven't seen such convincing charts at this stage in the season since 2012. As coldies we should be grateful at the output on offer, and relish in the potential that could result rather than focus on any perceived negatives regarding specific uppers etc.

True but that EXACT thing was said in 2020-21. Which was a great winter for Scotland and the hilly north of England. But thin gruel in most of lowland southern England for most of the time

[Kirkcaldy Weather]

2 more OP runs to add to the really really good... blocked ..and loaded with wintry opportunity category  

 

 

ECM very nice progression too,

strong block and this particular run if it went further you could imagine would evolve something like this (I'll add my images once I sketch it out on my tablet ) 

 

Edited November 23, 2022 by Kirkcaldy Weather

[Skullzrulerz]

33 minutes ago, Beanz said:

It's been asked every year, but unfortunately it's not a popular choice (but I do agree with you).  I'm sitting here wondering why we're discussing the possibility of cold at 16 days out...I get the 'trends' argument, but every year it's the same formula. 

384hr "BFTE v.2" -> 264hr "MetO and ECM must come on side" -> 240hr "GFS is rubbish" -> 168hr "winter is over" 

 

 

Couldn't of agree more with this, yes there are promising trends for colder weather and perhaps snow.

However it's not even in the semi reliable time frame, if we truly want a chance of getting this cold weather it has to get into the reliable time frame.

We have seen time and time again what happens with these "trends" bit hopefully this year will be different.

[Man With Beard]

Welcome back wintry outliers, it's been a long time

[Kasim Awan]

1 minute ago, LRD said:

True but that EXACT thing was said in 2020-21. Which was a great winter for Scotland and the hilly north of England. But thin gruel in most of lowland southern England for most of the time

because the setup was more atlantic based, and when easterlies set up they lacked undercutting troughs

relax and enjoy the chase, because the synoptics might just work in your favour this time. no guarantee. also i havent seen a flake since April, and getting snow out of a weak easterly is like getting blood out of a stone, so in reality im in the same boat as you.

[LRD]

5 minutes ago, Kasim Awan said:

because the setup was more atlantic based, and when easterlies set up they lacked undercutting troughs

relax and enjoy the chase, because the synoptics might just work in your favour this time. no guarantee. also i havent seen a flake since April, and getting snow out of a weak easterly is like getting blood out of a stone, so in reality im in the same boat as you.

Yeah, you're right of course. And I'm more interested in trends than detail even as close out as 144. And the uppers issue will probably sort out. But, as a warning to new members, it might not

I'm relaxed though. Been disappointed so many times down the years that it's water off a duck's back so I don't worry about it anymore. My expectations are very, very low. I'd love to see severe cold and snow, of course, but if it doesn't happen, it doesn't. Philosophical now but that also means my own bias doesn't cloud me as much as it used to

Edited November 23, 2022 by LRD

[damianslaw]

14 minutes ago, Kasim Awan said:

I haven't seen such convincing charts at this stage in the season since 2012. As coldies we should be grateful at the output on offer, and relish in the potential that could result rather than focus on any perceived negatives regarding specific uppers etc.

Those who have been around a while, may remember that ECM in 2012! I think it showed a potent easterly beast of sorts in the 4 day timeframe around mid month, but then dropped it last minute, and the high collapsed and we brought in mild atlantic flow, alas the cold came back just after christmas. Certainly winter 12-13 started on a cold note. Last time we were seeing charts with similiar possible prospects for the start of winter was probably 2012. 2017 and 2020 also started cold, but the dynamics were different, as you say atlantic was more in play, wedges rather than significant large blocking features.

 

[sukayuonsensnow]

1 hour ago, Jamie M said:

And the crowd goes wild

Part of me wants to say "The Beast cometh"

But the winds are ESE from Ukraine/Black Sea, so temperatures would probably more likely be mid single figures with rain/hill sleet showers for some.

[I remember Atlantic 252]

1 minute ago, damianslaw said:

Those who have been around a while, may remember that ECM in 2012! I think it showed a potent easterly beast of sorts in the 4 day timeframe around mid month, but then dropped it last minute, and the high collapsed and we brought in mild atlantic flow, alas the cold came back just after christmas. Certainly winter 12-13 started on a cold note. Last time we were seeing charts with similiar possible prospects for the start of winter was probably 2012. 2017 and 2020 also started cold, but the dynamics were different, as you say atlantic was more in play, wedges rather than significant large blocking features.

'

Certainly remember that! Wed 5th wasn't it @That ECM

[Weather-history]

2 minutes ago, damianslaw said:

Those who have been around a while, may remember that ECM in 2012! I think it showed a potent easterly beast of sorts in the 4 day timeframe around mid month, but then dropped it last minute, and the high collapsed and we brought in mild atlantic flow, alas the cold came back just after christmas. Certainly winter 12-13 started on a cold note. Last time we were seeing charts with similiar possible prospects for the start of winter was probably 2012. 2017 and 2020 also started cold, but the dynamics were different, as you say atlantic was more in play, wedges rather than significant large blocking features.

 

[Kasim Awan]

Just now, LRD said:

Yeah, you're right of course. And I'm more interested in trends than detail even as close out as 144. And the uppers issue will sort out. But, as a warning to new members, it might not

I'm relaxed though. Been disappointed so many times down the years that it's water off a duck's back so I don't worry about it anymore. My expectations are very, very low. I'd love to see severe cold and snow, of course, but if it doesn't happen, it doesn't. Philosophical now but that also means my own bias doesn't cloud me as much as it used to

The uppers are unlikely to be cold enough during this initial easterly to support low level snow. The ssts are too warm, depth of continental cold too weak to produce a sub 200m asl snowline. It's the promise and potential that this pattern offers which raises interest for more favourable developments later on. I see this as a slow but steady progression of blocking which could offer several opportunities.

For new members, add a silent "no guarantee" to the end of every post, will make life easier.

[minus10]

Pretty strong signal for a mean z500 anom chart for ecm 12z..

Edit just noticed that is the 0z ...still a good signal. Lets see what the 12z looks like..

Edited November 23, 2022 by minus10

[northwestsnow]

2 minutes ago, minus10 said:

Pretty strong signal for a mean z500 anom chart for ecm 12z..

Thats 0z mate 

[LRD]

3 minutes ago, Kasim Awan said:

The uppers are unlikely to be cold enough during this initial easterly to support low level snow. The ssts are too warm, depth of continental cold too weak to produce a sub 200m asl snowline. It's the promise and potential that this pattern offers which raises interest for more favourable developments later on. I see this as a slow but steady progression of blocking which could offer several opportunities.

For new members, add a silent "no guarantee" to the end of every post, will make life easier.

This is why, IMHO, Greenland Highs are so much better than Scandi Highs. Colder uppers in quicker, little chance of warmer uppers mixing in from more southerly quarters of Europe and, when they establish, they seem to prove far more stable than Scandi Highs, which just seem to collapse, these days, under the merest pressure from the Jet. That might be a misconception from me but it's how I see it

If the Scandi sets up over Norway or between Norway and Iceland it can provide a cleaner evolution to cold but, for me, the orientation on a Scandi has to be almost perfect nowadays. Of course, if it is, the rewards are massive for my neck of the woods

[Jackski4]

No one has even mentioned the ECM 12Z so far. Bad I’m presuming…

 

 

aside from the people posting last nights charts by accident!

[LRD]

10 minutes ago, Weather-history said:

The most epic of epic model fails. Looked nailed on for the 3rd frigid December in 4 after 2009 and 2010 and it unravelled in dramatic fashion

We haven't even come close to a cold December since despite 2017's promising start

[Eagle Eye]

I've been saying it for a while now, the background signals look to almost constantly be in our favour. MJO recycling through phases 6 and 7 causing the Nino AAM, trend towards a -NAO, there is very little wrong with this...

Blocking seems highly likely with this sort of setup, beyond that and it's up to the strength of WAA to decide our fate, all I'm saying is that we're in with a very decent chance here. Plus 

Oh and above average SST's in the North Sea, lake effect snow possible in right setup, etc..

Just nobody say anything to your friends and family otherwise the net weather jinx may continue .

The models will toy with our emotions of course, it just wouldn't be the GFS, ECM or any other model without any drama. 

[LRD]

9 minutes ago, Jackski4 said:

No one has even mentioned the ECM 12Z so far. Bad I’m presuming…

 

 

aside from the people posting last nights charts by accident!

Kasim and I have been discussing it mate

Pattern, great. Uppers, crud

Edited November 23, 2022 by LRD