Model Output Discussion - moving into Winter

[blizzard81]

Not too bad I suppose

[Rain All Night]

21 minutes ago, tight isobar said:

Let the dripping commence!.. Edit: the Pacific lower basin is going to be imo the lord of dynamics

Dripping! Now I understand all your posts I've been reading for the past month! 

Edited November 28, 2022 by RainAllNight

[Wold Topper]

GFS model update, postponed until Wednesday??

[seabreeze86]

2 minutes ago, CreweCold said:

Close to the perfect set up on the ECM at D10

 

Almost like you broke into ECM headquarters Crewe 

Would love to see days 11/12 

Edited November 28, 2022 by seabreeze86

[ICE COLD]

Haven’t had time to read trough but the ECM is an upgrade tonight. Cold from T120 all the way to T240 with the main course just bout to hit

[Cheshire Freeze]

1 minute ago, seabreeze86 said:

Almost like you broke into ECM headquarters Crewe 

Hahaha well if I could control the output I'd have tweaked that D10 chart a little bit but it really is decent enough and better than this morning's urgh offering.

[Day 10]

4 minutes ago, Mike Poole said:

ECM T240, shot at an early jackpot, but it missed!  Just want that a bit further east. 

Still should go on from there well…

 

Nice to see it trending back east after that wild swing west this morning

[Ali1977]

5 minutes ago, ICE COLD said:

Haven’t had time to read trough but the ECM is an upgrade tonight. Cold from T120 all the way to T240 with the main course just bout to hit

There could well be some snow events with those uppers

[sheikhy]

1 minute ago, Ali1977 said:

There could well be some snow events with those uppers

Yup and on multiple days as well!cold air coming straight from the continent and not exactly over the north sea!

[weirpig]

Cold temps on the ecm  some areas not much above freezing  during the day  colder by night as low as -6 probably lower in sheltered areas 

[LRD]

4 minutes ago, CreweCold said:

Hahaha well if I could control the output I'd have tweaked that D10 chart a little bit but it really is decent enough and better than this morning's urgh offering.

Indeed. Just a tweak or two here and there and it would be perfection - move the centre of the GH more towards Iceland and the centre of the French low to Northern/central Italy

Superb chart though regardless

[Johnp]

8 minutes ago, Wold Topper said:

GFS model update, postponed until Wednesday??

Good, it’s been all over the shop recently. 

[Downburst]

If you’re looking for winter you’ll not get much better than air sourced directly from the pole itself.

 

the temps negative widely at 100 meters midday December 8. Humidity down too. Happy for this change.

[Anthony Burden]

Evening all,Excellent ECM 12z  along with hopefully a prolonged cold /very cold further outlook,going to be a big shock to the system with temperatures heading lower as the week progresses.Will be keeping a close eye on hpa temperatures to allow for showers to turn more wintery.

[CanadaAl]

1 minute ago, Anthony Burden said:

Evening all,Excellent ECM 12z  along with hopefully a prolonged cold /very cold further outlook,going to be a big shock to the system with temperatures heading lower as the week progresses.Will be keeping a close eye on hpa temperatures to allow for showers to turn more wintery.

Agreed. I also think MetOffice website forecasts will start to fall in line which will come as a bit of a surprise to some. With these charts i fail to see how it would be 7 in London on Sunday. 

[AdrianHull]

15 minutes ago, Ali1977 said:

There could well be some snow events with those uppers

Agreed. It's looking great.

A few posts stating earlier that we need at least -8 uppers for snow is highly misleading. It's way more complexed than just using uppers as snow potential.

[Chesil View]

26 minutes ago, blizzard81 said:

Not too bad I suppose

Ah.......the fabled cross polar flow.....and with our name on it

[Nick F]

Think we still have some way to go to say all roads lead to deep cold from the northeast, but we appear to be inching there slowly with the ECWMF at least.

Would like to see the Russian high and burgeoning Greenland high to separate and the Russian high to move out the way to let the deep cold vortex to drop down via Svalbard, as EC hints at. Trouble is with GFS op keeps the two highs linked until deep F.I., but I'm growing a little more convinced today that that deep cold vortex will eventually head into NE Europe and allow us to tap into that deep cold.

[northwestsnow]

I'll take EC 12Z det right now..

Very seasonal run and incoming Arctic airmass at day 10.

We've hit the jackpot if that run is right.

EC 46 out soon..

Edited November 28, 2022 by northwestsnow

[bluearmy]

This could be ultra frustrating over the next couple of weeks with days of grey skies and cold drizzle at times followed by a cold trough that’s just not quite cold enough with wet snow at best away from hills 

or it could be an amazing two weeks for snow starved coldies 

incidentally, the day 10 mean a little improved on the trough placement 

Edited November 28, 2022 by bluearmy

[Nick F]

10 minutes ago, AdrianHull said:

Agreed. It's looking great.

A few posts stating earlier that we need at least -8 uppers for snow is highly misleading. It's way more complexed than just using uppers as snow potential.

If you are referring to my post, I didn't state that at least -8C is needed for all situations, but if the cold air is travelling over the anomalously warm North Sea - you'd need the uppers that cold to get lowland snow towards eastern areas. If the air is stagnant, i.e. little wind to mix out the cold air at the surface with no onshore flow nearby, then you can get away with a lot high uppers.

Edited November 28, 2022 by Nick F

[Cuban Zebra]

I tried, I said stay away till it’s showing at t+48, you’ll only get hurt again! But some of the charts! Oh my word!

F73977C3-53AC-4FF4-BD1B-1D72D846809E.webp

Edited November 28, 2022 by Cuban Zebra

[Phil Blake]

2 minutes ago, Nick F said:

If you are referring to my post, I didn't state that at least -8C is needed for all situations, but if the cold air is travelling over the anomalously warm North Sea - you'd need the uppers that cold to get lowland snow towards eastern areas. If the air is stagnant, i.e. little wind with not onshore flow nearby, then you can get away with a lot high uppers.

It wasn't that long ago we had sleet from -8 uppers from an easterly in the north east. I believe the air was originally sourced from the eastern med on that occasion and dew points were just slightly too warm. Air sourced from the north east should fair a bit better. 

[sheikhy]

What a fantastic mean all the way through!!!iberian low kept south and then disrupts into europe with cold air incoming from the north east!!what a greenland high as well!!

Edited November 28, 2022 by sheikhy

[Nick F]

9 minutes ago, Phil Blake said:

It wasn't that long ago we had sleet from -8 uppers from an easterly in the north east. I believe the air was originally sourced from the eastern med on that occasion and dew points were just slightly too warm. Air sourced from the north east should fair a bit better. 

Really is situational and not clear-cut to be honest. In a marginal set up it can swing so easily either way between snow/rain and so can't just rely on T850s as a guide, temperatures can change a lot more easily and winds can be a different direction at the surface compared to 1,500m up. 850-1000mb (partial) thickness is often a better guide, plus surface dew points can change over a short area, especially affected by variable winds that can change between offshore and onshore , 1 degree swing either side of 0C surface dew point can make the difference between snow / sleet / rain.

Edited November 28, 2022 by Nick F