Model Output Discussion - moving into Winter

[Geordiesnow]

Just now, Skullzrulerz said:

Although The ECM is excellent, it's on its own sadly.

I would strongly suggest to keep in mind unless GFS,UKMO start to go in that direction I would take it with a pinch of salt 

There has been some GFS runs showing similar at the 300 odd hour stage in previous days though. Obviously now we are in the 216/240 hour range so Arctic air flooding southwards is a fair possibility although by no means a certainty. 

[Cloud 10]

Polar vortex in complete self-destruct mode at day 10.

 

[GSP]

11 minutes ago, jellybaby1969 said:

ECM over GFS....Meto over both. Get ECM and Meto onboard together at T48 then you can rest.

That far out!

[phil b]

Hell of a lot of Blue on this chart and we're in the middle of it.

 

 

Edited November 29, 2022 by phil b

[IDO]

If you could script these upcoming dynamics, then the ECM follows the playbook. Good WAA via Atlantic, Arctic wedge goes to the GH, and no spoiler lows or highs in the northern quadrant spoiling that almost perfect flow as the Asian trough drops south.

You have to love it, but burnt too many times by the ECM when it simplifies the pattern. Occams Razor; maybe just overthinking!

For the record, ECM 12Z run November 29:

[blizzard81]

So the big question is. Has the ecm nailed this or is it in attention seeking mode?

[Cold Winter Night]

3 minutes ago, Skullzrulerz said:

Although The ECM is excellent, it's on its own sadly.

I would strongly suggest to keep in mind unless GFS,UKMO start to go in that direction I would take it with a pinch of salt 

On its own?

We'll have to await the EPS 12z clusters, but this scenario is well supported in this morning's EPS and in GEFS (and yesterday's etc).
Don't watch the Operationals as stand-alone runs , without their ensembles.

[SqueakheartLW]

Just now, phil b said:

Hell of a lot of Blue on that chart

 

 

Have we seen anything more blue than that on these charts before?

Feel for those in NE Canada who are having a winter heatwave there

[Polar Maritime]

Very locked in cold from the ECM tonight. A very interesting period of model watching continues !

[Chesil View]

Just now, Cold Winter Night said:

On its own?

We'll have to await the EPS 12z clusters, but this scenario is well supported in this morning's EPS and in GEFS (and yesterday's etc).
Don't watch the Operationals as stand-alone runs , without their ensembles.

So true.

[January Snowstorm]

I think the ECM has it right for 1 major reason. The Pro's such as the beeb have upped the ante for deeper cold next week. AS John Holmes mentioned recently they have access to much more information than we do and they are known for not ramping! They wouldn't have stuck their neck out this evening unless they were confident!

[GSP]

Just great seeing the charts pop out at the mo.

Low pressure seems to be getting pushed further south too.

[The PIT]

ECM nice but too far out to say with any confidence it's right.

[That ECM]

Plenty of support within the gefs. But more time needed.

[Nick F]

17 minutes ago, Tim Bland said:

Can I be really picky here …ECM is snow free for 99% of us….I’ll get my coat while the “get the cold in first and worry about snow later” posts come in  

Exactly that ... worry about getting the cold first, once that's ok, the snow will come. It shows precip / showers being generated over sea as the cold air crosses the relatively warmer SSTs, showers would likely blow inland too. And you can't realistically expect a model, even high res, to pick up features that may bring more organised snowfall at that range.

Edited November 29, 2022 by Nick F

[Cambrian]

To be fair, even with the less direct GFS, it doesn’t look like the shortwave distractions will deter the eventual enforcement of the long wave pattern and a lengthy cold spell. 

On the 12z GFS ensemble mean, what starts out as a 568+ gpm warm air advection up into Greenland at day 7, gets encircled within a 536 gpm ring by day 13. A dramatic change in air mass over a substantial area of Northern Europe and the North Atlantic. This sealing off and filling in of heights just looks so right for the formation of a proper cold block.

 

Albeit with lower heights, the amplification into Greenland is still there, high pressure (on a mean at day 13 of 1040mb!) maintaining the drag of lower heights our way from the northeast. 

Closer to the surface, the cold air already in place over the UK and Ireland by this weekend is still very much there the following weekend.

  

Cold set in good and proper.

[Iceman2606]

Bit of a wobble with the GFS 12z this evening although they are slight outliers. Things looking to turn colder through this weekend with a possible snow risk for mainly higher elevations. What happens after is still very much a .

GFS 12z mean still pretty decent.

 

Something for the coldies to mouth water at from ECM 12z. Shame it's 10 days away.

[Rain All Night]

19 minutes ago, Cloud 10 said:

Polar vortex in complete self-destruct mode at day 10.

 

More of a polar... antivortex?

[Ladyofthestorm]

7 minutes ago, Nick F said:

Exactly that ... worry about getting the cold first, once that's ok, the snow will come. It shows precip / showers being generated over sea as the cold air crosses the relatively warmer SSTs, showers would likely blow inland too. And you can't realistically expect a model, even high res, to pick up features that may bring more organised snowfall at that range.

I'm.trying to remember who told us to get the cold in first ... Chino maybe ? 

[legritter]

Get the cold in first Gang and the sausage baps will follow .I'm loving these winter synoptics and great posts ,big thank you to you posters for your inputs, cheers gang .. 

 

[Nick F]

Pretty cold UK and much of Europe days 9-10 on 12z EC

[Ali1977]

EC mean at 192 is awesome 

 

Ending with this at 240

Edited November 29, 2022 by Ali1977

[Allseasons-Si]

14 minutes ago, legritter said:

Get the cold in first Gang and the sausage baps will follow .I'm loving these winter synoptics and great posts ,big thank you to you posters for your inputs, cheers gang .. 

 

Ha ha,...love it

mean 192-240,...stunning! 

 

Edited November 29, 2022 by Allseasons-si

[damianslaw]

Short term - a sustained easterly flow up to the weekend, slightly colder uppers will be dragged in by then and it will feel very raw for most, possible wintryiness in any showers down to modest levels in the north I would think. Quite a bit of cloud, but in any breaks further west always threat of frost and fog.

Its from the 5th, that date again things become more interesting. Weak shallow trough/shortwave feature to our south notwithstanding the main theme is the transferal of heights to Greenland and the PV locked on the N Asian side wanting to move away and drop some of its energy. This is a much bigger force than the weak lower pressure feature to the south, and the way GFS develops this against the greenland high and PV looks very suspect to me. ECM shows a clean transition to somethign substantively colder and wintry from the north - Dec 09/10 redux anyone?

[Captain Shortwave]

ECM ens still going strongly for a Scandi trough/Strong Atlantic ridge (possible cut off high close to Greenland) for week 2. Given the murmurs elsewhere you would have to cautiously consider this to be the preferred option going forward. However it would be nice to see other models fully backing this.