Model Output Discussion - moving into Winter

[sheikhy]

My god what a mean from start to finish!!talk about a direct hit....

 

[Ali1977]

Just now, sheikhy said:

My god what a mean from start to finish!!talk about a direct hit....

 

It’ll be nice if the pub run follows, having the mean follow the op is surely a positive thing - especially with the GFS app being an outlier within its suite. 

[CoventryWeather]

Wouldn't mind some small disturbances next week, like the GFS is showing. Would have thought there would be a small surface low somewhere across the south. 

[Lukesluckybunch]

Well that was a great ECM run..would anybody guess where the next run would go the next couple of days...would the main part of that PV drop over the uk?..or would it edge west?

[Iceman2606]

Lovely

[Scuba steve]

Looking out am I correct in assuming a weak PV ?

[I remember Atlantic 252]

Just now, CoventryWeather said:

Wouldn't mind some small disturbances next week, like the GFS is showing. Would have thought there would be a small surface low somewhere across the south. 

EC no good for us, Sat to Mon, cold is too far north

[Sweatyman]

Whats all this then?

[MATTWOLVES 3]

Superb ECM mean and hopefully gfs and ukmo was having a little off day...European model remains steadfast! 

I think you will find on this Forum (message to newbies) is that when gfs and gem go full on Greenland heights,we will all say the American and Canadian models handle this best due to being closer to there vicinity,but when they downplay those said heights...we will assure you its actually the ECM that handles that location better...and when things get really bad...it will be the model in the backhole of calcutta that handles them best you sense where I'm going with this.

Anyway it looks colder the Blocking potential remains solid as far as I'm concerned...yes uppers still not gr8...but like me great great gran used to tell me...Matthew,get the snow in first and the cold will be sure to follow...mind you she did get sectioned in the end when she was caught wearing her slippers as ear rings..

Everybody be cool...you be cool.

Edited November 29, 2022 by MATTWOLVES

[stodge]

Evening all

A significant pattern change underway and the first manifestation was my unexpected two-hour downpour over East London last evening as the rain band stopped with no energy to push it further east.

Classic "Col" situation - only 3% of UK's energy being supplied by wind currently - as we await the rise of pressure to the east and the onset of our E'ly from tomorrow onward.

Plenty of options into next week and the question seems to be whether we keep the trough to the south of us or whether the trough extends across the whole of the British Isles.

Looking at some T+144 charts tonight: - GFS OP, ECM, GEM, UKM and JMA respectively

I'm struck by the lack of consistency - FI is certainly T+96 or at worst T+120 and I really don't know where we go next week. Ideally, we'd like the LP to stay well to the south initially and keep the ridge strong to the north. ECM creates a classic Greenland HP N'ly but at the other end GFS pulls us back into a mild Atlantic flow. 

I don't know.

[Lukesluckybunch]

6 minutes ago, I remember Atlantic 252 said:

EC no good for us, Sat to Mon, cold is too far north

That's true the coldest uppers showing are north england..the South is just about hanging onto the cold air..having said I would still expect temps to only be 3-6 across the country..thoughts?

[Neilsouth]

Why are people evening bothering with GFS if it's showing a huge dartboard low to the south west?!?!

[Eagle Eye]

I'm not going to be looking at distant means just yet but if you aren't taking that 144 hour ECM mean then you really are nitpicking.

[bluearmy]

10 minutes ago, Sweatyman said:

Whats all this then?

MJO has been pedicted to return to the COD for a while 

I dont mind it going in there whilst we are in an amplified state

[Cheshire Freeze]

11 minutes ago, Sweatyman said:

Whats all this then?

I guess he’s saying we’re going to lose the amplification and return to a flatter pattern.

[phil nw.]

The ECM mean charts continue with their consistency with a solid Greenland block and dropping down the Scandinavian trough.

Very reassuring output after the GFS op runs earlier threw a few doubts into the mix.

We are now entering the transition phase where the Atlantic is stopped and the easterly sets in.

Next week looks to be where we see another step forward as the cold builds towards us.

Too early yet to pin point any detail.Low pressure towards Biscay next week may move north and create a battleground setup across the Uk but modeling will pick this up nearer the time.

What a NH pattern to start Winter  though.Plenty of interest to come I think.

[Cheshire Freeze]

1 minute ago, bluearmy said:

MJO has been pedicted to return to the COD for a while 

I dont mind it going in there whilst we are in an amplified state

We don’t want it lingering there for too long. It’s perhaps why the GFS wants to try and flatten things somewhat compared to earlier runs.

[bluearmy]

biggest cluster not so great. But a fair spread of support. The control is close to the op 

[phil nw.]

1 minute ago, bluearmy said:

MJO has been pedicted to return to the COD for a while 

I dont mind it going in there whilst we are in an amplified state

Yes Blue it's been forecasted for a while.

There's usually a lag effect of a 10/14 days hopefully we have time to see a decent cold spell.

[TSNWK]

What is Cod?  

[WorldExplore]

1 hour ago, Cloud 10 said:

Polar vortex in complete self-destruct mode at day 10.

 

"The day after tomorrow"

 

[bluearmy]

1 minute ago, TSNWK said:

What is Cod?  

Circle Of Doom - low amplification of the MJO 

Edited November 29, 2022 by bluearmy

[sheikhy]

Ecm control looks like the op!!good support it seems!!!

Ecm control looks like the op!!good support it seems!!!

[Cheshire Freeze]

1 minute ago, bluearmy said:

Circle Of Doom - low amplification of the MJO 

Any idea when we might climb out of it blue?

[lorenzo]

Wouldn't worry too much about the MJO...