Model Output Discussion - moving into Winter

[Northwest NI]

This cold spell is nailed on because we have people now moving on to the breakdown

[BLAST FROM THE PAST]

3 minutes ago, CreweCold said:

I wonder if there’s anyway we can maintain the cold pattern until the next phase of favourable background signals potentially come along later in the month?

The HP doing a complete retrograde is probably the worst outcome as it leaves the trop PV free to wind itself up uninhibited thereafter.

I think we need to hope for Arctic heights, however muted, to remain and some legacy of ridging in the N Atlantic (wedges) or to our E. We need to be good to go straight off the bat during the next phase.

I think that’s very much in the pipeline Aaron

 

BFTP

Edited November 30, 2022 by BLAST FROM THE PAST

[bluearmy]

6 minutes ago, Ali1977 said:

Guessing the cold breaks down quickly on the control? 

No it doesnt - the pattern at the very end looks like its about to with Atlantic low and warm front inbound …..post transient ridge west to east 

[Ali1977]

Slightly diff at T138, not quite as good around Greenland (although not sure if that will be an issue) , but the latest run also keep the Iberian low much further south. 
The Iberian lows position should aid a better northerly I think  

Edited November 30, 2022 by Ali1977

[Snowy L]

Iberian Low position similar to ECM out to t144.

[keithlucky]

29 minutes ago, Bricriu said:

Ah it can easily change. We can go from amazing charts to mild muck quite quickly. You can never say with confidence blocked conditions will last a considerable time in our neck of the woods, unfortunately.

Rapid expanding Greenland HP could be the Largest Greenland  HP for 50 years .Odds are stacking for a sustained cold spell.

[Northwest NI]

Is it possible December will bring to an end to both 56 and 12 years of hurt…..

Edited November 30, 2022 by Northwest NI

[Allseasons-Si]

The 18z is good,...we have lower height's over C Europe with cold-er pool over the UK @144.

[Ali1977]

Next Wed could offer a snow event as the cold air meets the LP in the south 

 

It’s kind of showing up

Edited November 30, 2022 by Ali1977

[Polar Maritime]

3 minutes ago, Northwest NI said:

Is it possible December will bring to an end to both 56 and 12 years of hurt…..

Yes, It's pretty remarkable to say the least,

[chionomaniac]

Now I know I shouldn’t but I am liking this run so far. The weak low pressure is to the south and not the west around day 6. Should assist the northerly

[Nick F]

Evening, not had any time to input today, but I'm currently watching the deep cold being pushed across the pole and down across Svalbard next Tuesday, that has our name on it hopefully, expect this deep cold to be a formidable force that no Iberian low can defend against, buckle up guys and gals, the polar express is coming....

[Snowy L]

1 minute ago, Nick F said:

Evening, not had any time to input today, but I'm currently watching the deep cold being pushed across the pole and down across Svalbard next Tuesday, that has our name on it hopefully, expect this deep cold to be a formidable force that no Iberian low can defend against, buckle up guys and gals, the polar express is coming....

Don't think it's happening on this run, GH didn't amplify enough. At least it's finally sorted out the Iberian Low problem, one climbdown will do this run. It can split the PV properly in the morning.

[Northwest NI]

2 minutes ago, Nick F said:

Evening, not had any time to input today, but I'm currently watching the deep cold being pushed across the pole and down across Svalbard next Tuesday, that has our name on it hopefully, expect this deep cold to be a formidable force that no Iberian low can defend against, buckle up guys and gals, the polar express is coming....

Oh wow!

[tight isobar]

The oomph of the Iberian (pain) low is as I expected- losing its puff... the formidable block will as again- simply  extinguish it’s agg!!.. on we roll

Edited November 30, 2022 by tight isobar

[Ali1977]

I really think there could be a big snow event next Wed/Thurs, as the cold air wraps round the LP followed by the Arctic blast.

one to watch. 

[MarkM]

1 hour ago, Allseasons-si said:

The 12z ECM control would pack in some good convection from the north sea,...lake effect snow?,...to be concluded

192...

 

You may enjoy this article 

Sea Effect Snow - the UK version of Lake Effect snow. Very cold air across the North Sea

WWW.NETWEATHER.TV

---

Very cold easterly flow, found when a high pressure sits over Scandinavia and brings air to the UK from Siberia. If conditions are right, significant snow can result.

 

[Nick F]

1 minute ago, Snowy L said:

Don't think it's happening on this run, GH didn't amplify enough. At least it's finally sorted out the Iberian Low problem, one climbdown will do this run. It can split the PV properly in the morning.

Ignore the GFS run to run swings with throwing lows NE towards / over the UK, they will correct south like EC - IMO.

[Allseasons-Si]

@chionomaniac and @Nick F ramping it up

snow in some area's at 180...

 

[Eagle Eye]

9 minutes ago, Northwest NI said:

Is it possible December will bring to an end to both 56 and 12 years of hurt…..

And seeing as I was 3 for the 2010 business, could end 15 years of December hurt for me, if we do get that lucky, I might enter the lottery, might ask out my 'crush', might run for prime minister. 

Could be the best December for years lol.

But we need to get it first.

[damianslaw]

1 minute ago, tight isobar said:

The oomph of the Iberian (pain) low is as I expected- losing its puff... the formidable block will as ago- simple extinguish it’s agg!!.. on we roll

18z GFS going with a 1080mb Greenland high as early as 7th, that is some formidable pressure rise and a mighty block that will take some beating... all eyes to the NE next week. Cold incoming.

[Ali1977]

5 minutes ago, Snowy L said:

Don't think it's happening on this run, GH didn't amplify enough. At least it's finally sorted out the Iberian Low problem, one climbdown will do this run. It can split the PV properly in the morning.

The real cold is associated with this area - let’s hope that rattles off south right through the heart of the U.K.  !! 

Edited November 30, 2022 by Ali1977

[Johnp]

18z is having a laugh with this ruddy low. Clear off!

[TSNWK]

Where did this annoying low pop up over us.. stopping the cold March.. leaving us generally in -4 uppers.

[Derecho]

How often have we been looking at model output, hoping for a big Greenland high only to be spoiled by a shortwave?

GFS has an 1050mb high there and  550+ geopotential heights by T108 which shows how unique things are.

The question is will the cold air be focused over NE Scandi / western Russia or will it move towards us instead and phase with that low over us? The former option is better as we tap into the cold quicker. The latter may set up a battleground between cold and mild but the cold uppers won't be moderated as much if they are advected from Scandi.

EC sticking to its guns, the new GFS parallel proving to be a bit of a spoilsport