Model Output Discussion - moving into Winter

[Weather-history]

4 minutes ago, CreweCold said:

Cold rain for most

[Bats32]

Disappointing,doesn't look great this morning.

[Met4Cast]

Some right miserable buggers on here sometimes

All is good - GFS goes shortwave crazy yet again & ends up as an outlier for a while, ECM a little different but will wait for the ensembles before jumping the gun over the det run. 

[Cheshire Freeze]

4 minutes ago, Weather-history said:

Yeah, those snow charts are not worth the screen time. That’s been proven many times in the past.

That run is poor.

-4 uppers are not producing snow at the moment, any slight breeze and given above average SSTs, DPs will rise too much to support snowfall below elevated areas. This may have been different if we’d already had a freezing spell beforehand.

Edited December 1, 2022 by CreweCold

[Skullzrulerz]

4 minutes ago, Weather-history said:

Be careful with using these snow depths charts, it's goes under the impression that all precipitation will be snow.

Sadly with those uppers it won't be cold enough.

Not sure where the disappointment is coming from, but it wasn't expected that we would see anything beyond chilly, at least still mid December.

 

[northwestsnow]

3 minutes ago, CreweCold said:

Yeah, those snow charts are not worth the screen time. That’s been proven many times in the past.

That run is poor. 

I don't think it's poor mate but it's not my cup of tea ,I'm still sold on ukmo it looks less likely to go WB NAO

[TSNWK]

Drat and it was set to be relatively poor run when the plunge west further west at 168.. 

Still time  for a correction back and if ecm is over Amplified a smidge on this run we would be OK at verification.

Trends for me on the overnights for ukm gfs and ecm. Slightly less ompth to the plunge from the North east..  colder kinda washes out over us instead of barrels of cold heading further south.

Need this trend to correct back a smidge from 06z gfs

[knocker]

2 minutes ago, Skullzrulerz said:

Be careful with using these snow depths charts, it's goes under the impression that all precipitation will be snow.

Sadly with those uppers it won't be cold enough.

Not sure where the disappointment is coming from, but it wasn't expected that we would see anything beyond chilly, at least still mid December.

 

People are fixating on the 850mb temps once again instead of looking at the boundary layer

[Captain Shortwave]

4 minutes ago, Skullzrulerz said:

Be careful with using these snow depths charts, it's goes under the impression that all precipitation will be snow.

Sadly with those uppers it won't be cold enough.

Not sure where the disappointment is coming from, but it wasn't expected that we would see anything beyond chilly, at least still mid December.

 

In that set up, 850s of -4c should be enough for snow given it will be organised and I suspect winds will be fairly light in reality (there are plenty of other factors that will over ride the rather modest 850s).

That said it isn’t an ideal scenario as we lose that supply of cold from the Siberian section of the polar vortex and are left with trying to keep the jet stream far enough south to produce snow.

Edited December 1, 2022 by Captain Shortwave

[Weather-history]

9 minutes ago, CreweCold said:

Yeah, those snow charts are not worth the screen time. That’s been proven many times in the past.

That run is poor. 

 

7 minutes ago, Skullzrulerz said:

Be careful with using these snow depths charts, it's goes under the impression that all precipitation will be snow.

Sadly with those uppers it won't be cold enough.

Not sure where the disappointment is coming from, but it wasn't expected that we would see anything beyond chilly, at least still mid December.

 

True, I don't take the snow depths on these charts as a given but I take you back to the morning of the 28th December 2020 where infact it snow at my location near sea level. Look at those uppers and it wasn't evaporative cooling, it started off as snow. 

.

Edited December 1, 2022 by Weather-history

[bluearmy]

Ec is in a hurry - hopefully too much of a hurry and it will revert back. Historically, runs from the east or ne in that are in a hurry end up  too far west and often not far enough south. We need a little slower to get the enough of the trough south of the U.K. to lock us into the cold.  But not too much slower that the block is allowed to go too far west. 

clusters awaited to see where the control and rump of the members sit 

[Lukesluckybunch]

Not a terrible run from the ECM we at least stay in the cold side..But yes true compare to last 2/3 runs not great..7/10 I give it

[Cheshire Freeze]

Just now, northwestsnow said:

I don't think it's poor mate but it's not my cup of tea ,I'm still sold on ukmo it looks less likely to go WB NAO

It is poor, it’s as simple as that. There are a few reasons.

Firstly the deep cold air is cut off. That leaves a stagnated upper cold pool that actually mixes out, partly due to sea temperatures around the UK.

Secondly, it has ramifications going forward. Because the trough doesn’t get S enough and comes too far west, once the Atlantic pattern becomes unfavourable, we’re straight in the firing line of the Atlantic as there’s nothing to resist it. No dense cold pool, no cold surface HP, nothing.

It’s just a rotten evolution going forward. The only thing going for it is it maintains pressure on the strat for longer.

[mountain shadow]

10 minutes ago, Bats32 said:

Disappointing,doesn't look great this morning.

Ridiculous statement. 

The ECM Op is one run, where will it sit in its ens?

Still very snowy for many, particularly your location.

[Ali1977]

JMA is good too 

[Cheshire Freeze]

Just now, Ali1977 said:

JMA is good too 

That’s what we want to see.

[seb]

One word… CALM.

Models will wobble as always in this kind of setup. There’s no point worrying about “too far west” on charts showing a potential scenario at 9+ days and there’s definitely no reason to predict “cold rain” for all on 10 December.

The overall setup hasn’t changed.

[Cheshire Freeze]

3 minutes ago, seb said:

One word… CALM.

Models will wobble as always in this kind of setup. There’s no point worrying about “too far west” on charts showing a potential scenario at 9+ days and there’s definitely no reason to predict “cold rain” for all on 10 December.

The overall setup hasn’t changed.

No one’s predicting cold rain on the 10th December. It’s merely what the ECM shows. I haven’t a clue what the prevailing surface conditions will be on the 10th December and neither does the NWP yet.

It’s the model discussion thread, we’re discussing what the model shows as of now.

Edited December 1, 2022 by CreweCold

[BLAST FROM THE PAST]

All seem to be pickng up on a waxing and waning of blocking but overall blocking still being the boss.  I like them all as I can see reloading occurring.   Cold is the theme and it’s day 1 of winter.  Beautiful 

 

BFTP

[mbrothers]

Just now, CreweCold said:

No one’s predicting cold rain on the 10th December. It’s merely what the ECM shows.

It’s the model discussion thread, we’re discussing what the model shows.

I think the relentless ott reactions to every run from some does get boring after a while . The overall picture is still fantastic. 

[Met4Cast]

3 minutes ago, seb said:

One word… CALM.

Models will wobble as always in this kind of setup. There’s no point worrying about “too far west” on charts showing a potential scenario at 9+ days and there’s definitely no reason to predict “cold rain” for all on 10 December.

The overall setup hasn’t changed.

Yea, far too much over reaction to det runs. 

[seb]

1 minute ago, CreweCold said:

No one’s predicting cold rain on the 10th December. It’s merely what the ECM shows.

It’s the model discussion thread, we’re discussing what the model shows.

Come on. You posted a chart from the ECM Op for 10 December and said “cold rain for most”. There’s loads of people here who don’t have your knowledge and will take that as what will happen. 

[sheikhy]

Lovely set of runs this morning!!ecm very good again but a bit further west!!ukmo further east but a bit flatter and gfs improved but once again being a tit by dragging it out!!all in all if we blend all models together then nothing has changed and a direct hit is incoming!!!

[Cheshire Freeze]

1 minute ago, seb said:

Come on. You posted a chart from the ECM Op for 10 December and said “cold rain for most”. There’s loads of people here who don’t have your knowledge and will take that as what will happen. 

Yes…I posted the EC frame and analysed what it would bring as surface conditions. It’s what this thread is for?

As for your second point, I don’t just analyse the ECM you know

Edited December 1, 2022 by CreweCold

[chris55]

1 hour ago, CreweCold said:

If I had to bank a run, it'd be the control run btw

Absolute peach of a chart that! :0