Model Output Discussion - moving into Winter

[Snowy L]

Of course the GFS and ECM switch roles lmao.

[Tim Bland]

Precip turns widely to snow from this time next week on 06z GFS, just need to hope that a few more troughs / fronts pop up at short notice .. 

Edited December 1, 2022 by Tim Bland

[Skullzrulerz]

7 minutes ago, Snowy L said:

Of course the GFS and ECM switch roles lmao.

Double Turn indeed

 

[Battleground Snow]

Big shift in the mean too, with regards to cold encroaching from the North East, I imagine the graph form will have some much colder members later on.

Edited December 1, 2022 by Battleground Snow

[NewEra21]

Much, much better GFS run. The only trouble is, is it still just playing catchup up like the past few days and the ECM is one step ahead? That's why caution is needed.

[Met4Cast]

The GEFS mean is much improved in a number of ways. Cold pooling sharper into Scandi and as a result is much further south compared with the 00z & there also seems to be a trend for the Iberian low to sit further south, reducing the brief window of less cold air pushing into the south next week. 

Worth commenting though that there does appear to be a considerable amount of spread from day 3/4, largely down to the positioning of the Iberian low. The broad trend southwards is a good thing though.

All looking good from where I'm sitting following a slightly worrying 00z run.

[That ECM]

Gfs sees the trend, ecm picks up the ball, gfs goes off on one, ecm goes off on one, gfs picks up the ball as does ecm and Ukmo plods along to T168 sitting in the middle.  We’ve seen this numerous times. 

Edited December 1, 2022 by That ECM

[tight isobar]

An- overall v- good @6z and engagement Synoptics getting real.. the collision of masses are screaming notable possibility’s of snow events potential!!.. 

[BLAST FROM THE PAST]

21 minutes ago, IDO said:

We see the difference with the longevity of the pattern if we get a sustained trough flow like the GFS versus the cut-off low of the ECM 0z:

GFS 06z: ECM 0z:

The GFS manages to hold that "spoiler" low back, whilst the ECM drags the low north into the cut-off low. So by D12 we see an entrenched pattern on the GFS:

The ECM may still give us some colder weather but is clearly not close to what we want to see.

When you see them like that they aren’t ‘overall’ dissimilar…..which for me says either is plausible and neither can/should be binned at this range

 

BFTP

[blizzard81]

Whatever you lot say on here, don't ever say that the next set of runs are 'crucial'. To some it will feel like the proverbial red hot poker has been inserted up their rear ends

[Tim Bland]

Some widespread snow in the south at the end of the run.. fine margins though… don’t want that low to head any further north 

[nick sussex]

In typical model fashion yesterdays friendless GFS becomes today’s super hero !

I certainly wouldn’t trust the GFS given its recent performance but let’s hope its trend is the way to go because it does sustain the cold and delivers some snow .

Theres no point in trying to spin this mornings ECM op run which was a bitter disappointment after day 7 .

Theres plenty of time for changes though given the timeframes involved .

[LRD]

Looking back at some Dec 1981 charts and comparing them with recent modelling, the next few weeks has the potential to be more like that month and less like Dec 2010

And it's almost New Year's Eve 1978 (but with less cold uppers) on this frame:

[That ECM]

1 minute ago, Tim Bland said:

Some widespread snow in the south at the end of the run.. fine margins though… don’t want that low to head any further north 

And people in Aberdeen are having to leave the house via the upstairs bedroom window.

[TSNWK]

if I could draw a run it would be something like GFS06 start to finish is cold / very cold - unstable air entrenched, even a channel runner towards the end that exits to the east and we are looking at reload 3.

BANK!

[Daniel*]

Well ECM ens are coldest yet. Confidence higher of wintry cold further north…

Edinburgh

 

Manchester

 

London

[tight isobar]

5 minutes ago, Tim Bland said:

Some widespread snow in the south at the end of the run.. fine margins though… don’t want that low to head any further north 

Indeed 1 more run but packs potential  

[danm]

13 minutes ago, That ECM said:

Gfs sees the trend, ecm picks up the ball, gfs goes off on one, ecm goes off on one, gfs picks up the ball as does ecm and Ukmo plods along to T168 sitting in the middle.  We’ve seen this numerous times. 

I was about to say. In 15 years or more of model watching, this is textbook. Until you get into a reliable timeframe, i.e within about 96-120hrs, the models will inevitably churn out variations on the general theme. We can't expect any one model to countdown from t200 to t0 with the same, clean evolution. There will be different outcomes within an envelope that get shown. This morning's ECM was on the less good side of that envelope for cold and snow lovers - but by no means terrible - and this afternoon's may show it swing back again. The only time to worry is when you see less good/poor scenarios repeat over multiple model runs and between different model suites. 

[LRD]

3 minutes ago, nick sussex said:

In typical model fashion yesterdays friendless GFS becomes today’s super hero !

I certainly wouldn’t trust the GFS given its recent performance but let’s hope its trend is the way to go because it does sustain the cold and delivers some snow .

Theres no point in trying to spin this mornings ECM op run which was a bitter disappointment after day 7 .

Theres plenty of time for changes though given the timeframes involved .

Nah, this, from 2020, is what I would class as bitter disappointment

This morning's ECM is still a cold run, even though it's a warmer member of the ensemble suite at the end. It's only a disappointment if every single run past 168 has been taken too literally. There was always going to be an ECM scenario thrown out that shows something less dramatic within a cold envelope

It could be wrong, it could be right. We don't know. What we do know is the broadscale, bigger picture still looks very good. I've been a bit sceptical about this (and 20% of my brain still is) but it looks like things might turn significantly wintry from this time next week (if it does, timed to the day that Dec 81 started too)

[Methuselah]

Well, I say: Isn't today's 06Z operational run a stonker! Though it does beg the question: Is it an outlier?

    

    

Anyhoo, expect a series of 'upgrades' and 'downgrades' as that series of Atlantic depression gets moved northwards and southwards, over subsequent runs... Bernie, the bolt!

    

So, do we bin it? No! Do we take it as gospel? No! I think I'll file it the Stonker File for now, and see what happens?

[That ECM]

4 minutes ago, Ed Stone said:

Well, I say: Isn't today's 06Z operational run a stonker! Though it does beg the question: Is it an outlier?

    

    

Anyhoo, expect a series of 'upgrades' and 'downgrades' as that series of Atlantic depression gets moved northwards and southwards, over subsequent runs... Bernie, the bolt!

    

So, do we bin it? No! Do we take it as gospel? No! I think I'll file it the Stonker File for now, and see what happens?

Won’t be an outlier.

[Downburst]

13 minutes ago, LRD said:

Looking back at some Dec 1981 charts and comparing them with recent modelling, the next few weeks has the potential to be more like that month and less like Dec 2010

And it's almost New Year's Eve 1978 (but with less cold uppers) on this frame:

And News Years Eve 1979, I remember walking to a neighbour's house holding my mother's hand so we wouldn't slip in the snow, so two years in a row back then with snow for new years

Dec 31 1979 , It was flartastic, in a Boney M kind of way chart viewers)

[legritter]

Hi gang ,very good winter synoptics are on the table, colder weather gradually reaching most of the uk .And even deeper cold waiting in the wings . 3 Months of Model watching , Ecm and Met office two runs per day =182 runs each and our friend the Gfs a total of 364 runs .Garden paths galore,prozack times ,throwing in the Towel ,curtain twitching, telling neighbours its going to snow ,visions and dreams of Minus 510 Damm lines and a frozen english channel you can walk on .Todays model runs are very good for cold wintry weather ,Let the Hunt commence gang , sausage baps all round .

 

[seb]

10 minutes ago, Downburst said:

And News Years Eve 1979, I remember walking to a neighbour's house holding my mother's hand so we wouldn't slip in the snow, so two years in a row back then with snow for new years

Dec 31 1979 , It was flartastic, in a Boney M kind of way chart viewers)

NYE 1978 - I was only a few months old but my parents had a party in our new house. People arrived in pouring rain. By midnight there were nearly 10cm of snow. By 3am it was up to 20cm and when everybody woke up around 10am there was well over 30cm, blue skies and a hard frost.

My parents still talk about it. Never seen anything like it before and never since.

They lived in central Germany at the time but from what I know things were similar everywhere?

Edited December 1, 2022 by seb

[Downburst]

2 minutes ago, seb said:

NYE 1978 - I was only a few months old but my parents had a party in our new house. People arrived in pouring rain. By midnight there were nearly 10cm of snow. By 3am it was up to 20cm and when everybody woke up around 10am with well over 30cm, blue skies and a hard frost.

My parents still talk about it. Never seen anything like it before and never since.

They lived in central Germany at the time but from what I know things were similar everywhere?

There are archive charts out there somewhere, WetterZentral only goes to 1979, someone will know Reanalysis archives (wetterzentrale.de)