Model Output Discussion - moving into Winter

[ICE COLD]

The EC mean is a stonker also so are the clusters.

[Crackerjack]

11 minutes ago, BLAST FROM THE PAST said:

The ECM like the GFS is SENSATIONAL. No other word will suffice.  Cold blocking LOCKED IN.  

I now work part time for a certain ‘supermarket’ as a delivery driver….up at 0400.  Enjoy the 18z, the models are showing excellence, I just see tweaks of excellence going forward and no real dramas….Good night
 

BFTP

I hope they provide you with snow tyres and a 4x4 delivery van BFTP  

[chris55]

30 minutes ago, terrier said:

Sorry guys but that ECM won’t verify. And I will tell you why……. Just been out and bought 3 sledges

Get em In the shed ready and waiting while they are still available!!  

Edited December 1, 2022 by chris55

[BLAST FROM THE PAST]

1 minute ago, Crackerjack said:

I hope they provide you with snow tyres and a 4x4 delivery van BFTP  

No I’ll be a slipping and a sliding and ‘power cornering’

 

BFTP

[Snowy L]

10 minutes ago, Cold Winter Night said:

On the EPS 12z Ensemble clusters, in the 120-168h range, the main difference between the three about equally sized clusters is the handling of the Scandi trough to the NE.
Operational is in cluster 2 (17 members).

192-240h this leads to no less than 5 clusters, all pretty good, but the Operational sits in a very small cluster 5 with only 4 members.

The extended I'll ignore with all that goes on before that. Too far out.

Really hoping cluster 4 verifies. We want as many lows from the Siberian lobe spilling down to us as possible before the Greenland High tilts into Scandi and cuts off the supply.

[andy989]

I’ve been too busy to study the models and read the forum past few days, anyone able to help me out and say if we are any closer than day 10 to real world results? 
Thanks 

[northwestsnow]

December 

EC 46

 

Edited December 1, 2022 by northwestsnow

[Rain All Night]

8 minutes ago, Snowy L said:

Bit of a shame there's a growing trend to not quite get the low south enough so southern areas are in danger of having some milder air mixed in. 300-500 mile shift south and it would be perfect.

Is that low not going to provide exactly the fronts that someone else just mentioned we'll need to get snow?

[Johnp]

Just now, northwestsnow said:

EC 46

 

Where’s the timestamps - what period does each chart cover?

[swfc]

11 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

WOWZERS those clusters are amazing

They are mate and folk still moaning

[northwestsnow]

Just now, Johnp said:

Where’s the timestamps - what period does each chart cover?

Basically covers Dec 

[Bricriu]

2 minutes ago, Snowy L said:

Really hoping cluster 4 verifies. We want as many lows from the Siberian lobe spilling down to us as possible before the Greenland High tilts into Scandi and cuts off the supply.

It would lead to a reload and prolonging the cold. If the Greenland high stays where it i wonder would the events Matt H spoke about lead to it sinking?

[iceman1991]

1 minute ago, northwestsnow said:

Basically covers Dec 

Whats it basically showing on this not gen up on models ? 

[tight isobar]

Belly dipping.. winter IS COMING...perhaps big time..

Edited December 1, 2022 by tight isobar

[swfc]

I literally can't see any reason to be moaning with the output today folk's how how many crap December's have  we endured friends. Just try and let it unfold and enjoy. Please stop going moaning

2 minutes ago, iceman1991 said:

Whats it basically showing on this not gen up on models ? 

What

[Allseasons-Si]

Here is a thought that i think might of been mentioned on here,i think it might of been @CreweCold

we have the easterly(tame)now thanks to the Scandi high then we have retrogression into Greenland but there are hints that the high might retrogress east again over Scandi to produce another easterly,i think this low over us will sink further S/SE on subsequent runs thanks to that retrogression i have just mentioned with a sausage shape high from Greeny to Scandi over the top

you can clearly see this on the day ten ECM goe pot heights

[swfc]

6 minutes ago, tight isobar said:

Belly dipping.. winter IS COMING...perhaps big time..

I think your correct my friend  but keep it quiet

Edited December 1, 2022 by swfc

[January Snowstorm]

Remember folks over the last few years in particular once patterns establish they tend to repeat! Of course it's usually the Euro High that was doing that over recent times.

Could it be the year that the Greenland high repeats right in the middle of Winter. What a story this is evolving into!!

[stodge]

Evening all

It's rare I sit slack-jawed at the model output but tonight is one of those occasions.

Last night's GFS OP wobble is firmly forgotten - the question now is not whether it will be cold but how cold and for how long and which areas will be lucky enough to see snow and which will miss out but that will be for the day to day modelling.

The first stage will be for the initial overcast conditions to be replaced by some colder, clearer and drier air from the east (may take 4-5 days) then to look for this really cold push from the north east and whether we can get the LP to sit just to the south rather than right over us.

Hopefully this will be our most "interesting" December weather since 2010.

[Gregulator]

22 minutes ago, Snowy L said:

Bit of a shame there's a growing trend to not quite get the low south enough so southern areas are in danger of having some milder air mixed in. 300-500 mile shift south and it would be perfect.

M4 corridor...I know that feeling well.

 

[Ali1977]

14 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

December 

EC 46

 

This could be locked in all month, Greenland and Scandy blocking signal still pretty strong around Xmas and New year

[swfc]

Just now, snowblizzard said:

I'm not moaning, but I'm a little disappointed that Met Office (10 day trend) are not expecting a severe cold spell like 2018 BFE! 

It's never been on the cards tho. The nhp abs synoptics havnt shown it. It's all good atm just let the weather do its dance, ie tammara. All good

[chionomaniac]

So so so….. another day has passed, and another day closer to achieving a superb looking Greenland high. Everything looks good at day 5 and post this we are somewhat unsure of the specifics other than deep cold will be getting entrenched. 
 

The background signals to keep the cold have remained and if anything have improved. If anyone has access to the 10hPa EPS anomaly chart at T +360 then the longer term signal is also fantastic. These suggest a wave 1 warming with a hint of wave 2 thrown in for good measure. And with the lower Strat set to be under pressure for some time, then the upper Strat will likely cut through this and continue the lower weak Strat vortex outlook. I can’t remember ever seeing this combination before, so this could be special, especially against the background of climate change warming. 
 

Time will tell…

[Eagle Eye]

1 minute ago, swfc said:

I literally can't see any reason to be moaning with the output today folk's how how many crap December's have  we endured friends. Just try and let it unfold and enjoy. Please stop going moaning

What

Totally agreed.

EC 46 just updated and is showing an almost perfect -NAO pattern compared to a -NAO Jan-March average, this is a more of a mid Winter setup we're going into, shows you how incredible it could be. There is no real reason to believe this will deviate from a normal -NAO and so cold is significantly likely and significant cold potential is most definitely in the mix.

Oh and there's such a large spread on the Stratospheric zonal winds, anything could really happen beyond this upcoming -NAO spell that we're already dipping in to.

 

[Vikos]

Anyone knows where to find similiar charts like those from FU Berlin?