Model Output Discussion - moving into Winter

[IDO]

Stating the obvious, big changes from small variables from 06z to 12z GFS:

12z 6z  

So a move to the cut-off trough and UK cold pool, which has been the trend of late, sadly.

[Eastern Scotland WX]

6 minutes ago, TSNWK said:

now to see if the troughs mix out or are enhanched with reloads - could be a frustrating few frames coming up.

 

GEM the hero for 12z runs then

[Ali1977]

GEM at T150 is

[Snowman.]

After the stagnant low for few days 9th Dec is an Ice day for much of us. 
 

Still little snow, but very cold. 

[Cloud 10]

GFS temperatures next thursday and friday.

 

[danm]

1 minute ago, Snowman. said:

After the stagnant low for few days 9th Dec is an Ice day for much of us. 
 

Still little snow, but very cold. 

I would just remind you and others that this chart from 18th December 2010 brought heavy snow to southern England. It isn't too dissimilar to what's being shown:

[Tim Bland]

5 minutes ago, Ali1977 said:

GEM at T150 is

Don’t look beyond that unless your on high ground further north 🥹

[Singularity]

1 minute ago, IDO said:

Stating the obvious, big changes from small variables from 06z to 12z GFS:

12z 6z  

So a move to the cut-off trough and UK cold pool, which has been the trend of late, sadly.

However... unlike when we saw such outcomes cutting off most of the cold drop to begin with, we now look likely to have quite a bit of cold air to the east.

Hence we've started seeing a few runs bringing a  new influx of cold continental air from over that way the following week. 

[Ice Day]

There's no doubting that the GFS is a little disappointing for those in the south of the UK with the low too far north, although it could be quite snowy for a while, especially for areas in the north with elevation.  However, the GEM is superb.  The 180 chart

[Ali1977]

Mmmm, I was hoping for better to be fair. Hopefully the ENS are more promising and the ECM brings the goods. 

[sheikhy]

Gimme the gfs and ukmo 12z over gem this evening!!slacker flow as well!!probably snowy surprises all over the place come the time!!

[Tim Bland]

2 minutes ago, Ice Day said:

There's no doubting that the GFS is a little disappointing for those in the south of the UK with the low too far north, although it could be quite snowy for a while, especially for areas in the north with elevation.  However, the GEM is superb.  The 180 chart

GFS has a dusting of snow for some but not much away from Scottish highlands as far as the run goes so far. GEM has snow for high ground north of midlands and Scotland. It could turn Cold enough for snow on the back edge as the low pulls south though 

[Frosty.]

Hey, I know we are on to the 12z now.. but, if you’re a coldie.. please explain what is so bad about the GEFS 6z mean @ T+138 hours…hmmmmm?…yep, didn’t think so! ….I have no pretensions  to be an expert, there’s far brighter sparks than me meteorologically speaking… …but I’ve been here for 17 years so I’ve picked up a few tips along the way + I have instinct!! …for example, the seagulls are behaving strangely right now!!! .. go figure!  

[Fourty Point Three Degrees]

CFS anomalies has been showing the cold spell is ending just in time for Christmas with mild air coming in from the Azores. Not sure where people are getting the idea that its going to be "December 2010" all over again.

[johncam]

7 minutes ago, Cloud 10 said:

GFS temperatures next thursday and friday.

 

Would peak an hour or so after that so could probably add 1C

[Rayth]

1 minute ago, 38.7°C said:

CFS anomalies has been showing the cold spell is ending just in time for Christmas with mild air coming in from the Azores. Not sure where people are getting the idea that its going to be "December 2010" all over again.

You lost me at ‘CFS’ 

[Daniel*]

A variation in theme notice cold high forming over Scandinavia. Would help pulling in a northeasterly. Where it turns slack like this gives potential for exceptionally cold nights. Btw GFS temp predictions are really not good in these situations where there is low level cold close to surface it will only build.

Edited December 2, 2022 by Daniel*

[Snowman.]

4 minutes ago, danm said:

I would just remind you and others that this chart from 18th December 2010 brought heavy snow to southern England. It isn't too dissimilar to what's being shown:

This is much more extreme however with lower MSLP, also much colder too.

It will be a "wait and see" affair. But I would argue that there is a huge risk of things being too far north for those in the south, which is why I am trying to urge caution.

[IDO]

4 minutes ago, Singularity said:

However... unlike when we saw such outcomes cutting off most of the cold drop to begin with, we now look likely to have quite a bit of cold air to the east.

Hence we've started seeing a few runs bringing a  new influx of cold continental air from over that way the following week. 

There is a wedge block stopping access to cold from that direction at D9:

I have seen too many GEFS with this synoptic lead to a break-down of the core cold and it is def not the direction of travel we wanted. Gets very messy with that wedge.

[Cloud 10]

Frosty is Frosty again.

[Johnp]

I think this might be a ‘practice’ run and we’ll have a reload a short time after day 10 via another Atlantic amplification towards Greenland. 

[Ali1977]

The GEFS mean at T114 looks good so far , unlike the op at this point. 

[Skullzrulerz]

9 minutes ago, Ali1977 said:

Mmmm, I was hoping for better to be fair. Hopefully the ENS are more promising and the ECM brings the goods. 

Me too, it's a bit of shame to be honest, well let's hope ECM is a bit better but that was trending west too

[Mark wheeler]

Ukmo 168

[Paul_1978]

8 minutes ago, 38.7°C said:

CFS anomalies has been showing the cold spell is ending just in time for Christmas with mild air coming in from the Azores. Not sure where people are getting the idea that its going to be "December 2010" all over again.

No one has said this?