Model Output Discussion - moving into Winter

[Wold Topper]

Last had a look in here at 3pm, 15 pages since, omg , best have a coffee n catch up!

[CSC]

For context on temperature probabilities.. I chose a random snapshot of southern England on the latest ECM. An incredible -9 is forecast, BEFORE wind chill. In the freezer!

 

 

[Mike Poole]

ECM clusters T72-T96:

Just to note clusters 1 (inc op) and 4 don’t cut off the low initially.  There was no cluster similar on the 0z, so a shift to the GEFS take on this particular aspect.  T120-T168:

Interesting the op cluster 1 makes the most of the storm feature in the atlantic.  T192-T240:

Cluster 2 contains the op and opens up the NE flow again.  Emphasis on Scandi heights in cluster 3 in particular. 

Edited December 3, 2022 by Mike Poole

[weatherguy]

1 hour ago, Nick123 said:

Can someone please explain to a novice what are the fundamental differences between this modelled cold spell to 2010? Sorry if this has been asked and also sorry to the mods if this isn't appropriate 

Take a look at my profile pic, that was 2010 

An outrageously strong GH with an entire segment of PV dropping straight onto us...Followed by a brutal easterly...Followed by another brutal northerly...Followed by another brutal easterly...Etc etc.  

**Edit: As I was a numpty and put the wrong years for the next 3 charts, the actual progression was as follows:

Brutally cold easterly, which then dragged the block up to greenland, all the while drawing in more cold air from the east, which developed into the monster PV lobe dropping on us. **

I think in 11/12 years it's easy to forget just how special that was, absolutely mindblowing that we effectively spawned our own coldpool.

Onto this modelled setup:

We have a big shot from the north, due to a strong GH (block around greenland), followed by an easterly with potential undercutting LP systems.  Long story short, very good yes, and the initial source is pretty similar, but not absolutely outrageous as 2010 was.  2010-2011 also was incredibly prolonged, and we are yet to see if this will have the same longevity - it hasn't begun yet!

Don't get me wrong, I am absolutely ecstatic that this current cold spell seems to be on the way, and with the first cold coming into the very reliable period and other signals suggesting this could go on for a while, then things could indeed get very interesting!

Edited December 3, 2022 by weatherguy

[Mike Poole]

8 minutes ago, Met4Cast said:

Here's the Dalmatian plot from todays 12z ECM. I appreciate its a complete mess but each dot represents where a member places the centre of the low (red circle is the low in question) Broad support for a slider/more southerly tracking low vs a northerly one. I.e, UK remains cold.

Well, that’s cleared that up!

[clark3r]

I am starting to believe that I will get my snow cover for the first time since 2010. Excited by charts, it is def coming home England

[Jeremy Shockey]

ECM 12 z ensemble mean

Permission to get fairly excited ........... granted i think !

[Daniel*]

Had a quick look at models all but firmed up on a cold and wintry period establishing middle of next week. Noticed models pushing troughing south, all quite predictable a robust well positioned -NAO block often does wonders… there is reason historically for high success rate… we should let past examples guide us. Time for some of us to relax, and to take a break from computer screen?  

[Nick123]

7 minutes ago, weatherguy said:

Take a look at my profile pic, that was 2010 

An outrageously strong GH with an entire segment of PV dropping straight onto us...Followed by a brutal easterly...Followed by another brutal northerly...Followed by another brutal easterly...Etc etc.  

I think in 11/12 years it's easy to forget just how special that was, absolutely mindblowing that we effectively spawned our own coldpool.

Onto this modelled setup:

We have a big shot from the north, due to a strong GH (block around greenland), followed by an easterly with potential undercutting LP systems.  Long story short, very good yes, and the initial source is pretty similar, but not absolutely outrageous as 2010 was.  2010-2011 also was incredibly prolonged, and we are yet to see if this will have the same longevity - it hasn't begun yet!

Don't get me wrong, I am absolutely ecstatic that this current cold spell seems to be on the way, and with the first cold coming into the very reliable period and other signals suggesting this could go on for a while, then things could indeed get very interesting!

Thank you so much for that amazing analysis 

[Mark wheeler]

22 minutes ago, January Snowstorm said:

The jma is very good also

Interestingly it just obliterates the azores low, which for me is the most natural resolution....

Folks pinch yourself we are on the cusp..

Yes the Jma wasn't too bad either .  
 

Looks like we might be bringing back an old dinosaur, in the form of Cold snowy weather, Bring it on !!!

Edited December 3, 2022 by Mark wheeler

[Liam Burge]

Who needs movies when you have this type of setup at Christmas and the Netweather forums?

[Catacol]

7 minutes ago, weatherguy said:

Take a look at my profile pic, that was 2010 

An outrageously strong GH with an entire segment of PV dropping straight onto us...Followed by a brutal easterly...Followed by another brutal northerly...Followed by another brutal easterly...Etc etc.  

I think in 11/12 years it's easy to forget just how special that was, absolutely mindblowing that we effectively spawned our own coldpool.

Onto this modelled setup:

We have a big shot from the north, due to a strong GH (block around greenland), followed by an easterly with potential undercutting LP systems.  Long story short, very good yes, and the initial source is pretty similar, but not absolutely outrageous as 2010 was.  2010-2011 also was incredibly prolonged, and we are yet to see if this will have the same longevity - it hasn't begun yet!

Don't get me wrong, I am absolutely ecstatic that this current cold spell seems to be on the way, and with the first cold coming into the very reliable period and other signals suggesting this could go on for a while, then things could indeed get very interesting!

Though Dec 2010 didn’t last much beyond the end of the month. You’ve got the winter of 09/10 tacked on there rather than Jan 11.

The big difference for me this time is the background state. Dec 10 always looked likely to break down though it kept being delayed. This time around a breakdown is much harder to see - at least at the moment.

[The Enforcer]

1 hour ago, Met4Cast said:

Just for fun the ECM produces a technical polar low to the NE of Scotland

Could someone please explain what's going on in the 'red box' below?

Cheers, TE.

[danm]

32 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

Epic EC ..

Some really low max and mins on offer ..

Dickens December is ON !!

Does this mean you’re talking to your missus again?

[MattStoke]

2 minutes ago, Liam Burge said:

Who needs movies when you have this type of setup at Christmas and the Netweather forums?

I hope it’s not The Nightmare Before Christmas.

[weatherguy]

10 minutes ago, Catacol said:

Though Dec 2010 didn’t last much beyond the end of the month. You’ve got the winter of 09/10 tacked on there rather than Jan 11.

The big difference for me this time is the background state. Dec 10 always looked likely to break down though it kept being delayed. This time around a breakdown is much harder to see - at least at the moment.

I did think after I posted hang on that doesn't exactly fit my recollection oops, blame the Saturday night festivities  

Broad point still stands mind, as I recall the Dec 2010 spell started in November and did last a very long time with reloads, so fortunately my post wasn't full of complete gunk! 

I have edited my post to show the actual progression now!

Edited December 3, 2022 by weatherguy

[Sweatyman]

4 minutes ago, The Enforcer said:

Could someone please explain what's going on in the 'red box' below?

Cheers, TE.

Dry as a bone!

[Nick123]

2 minutes ago, weatherguy said:

I did think after I posted hang on that doesn't exactly fit my recollection oops, blame the Saturday night festivities  

Broad point still stands mind, as I recall the Dec 2010 spell started in November and did last a very long time with reloads, so fortunately my post wasn't full of complete gunk! 

Nov 24th was our First significant snowfall in the NE of England and it didn't stop snowing unti Middle of Dec! 

[The Enforcer]

2 minutes ago, Sweatyman said:

Dry as a bone!

But then what is the difference between that and the darker green over Southern England?

[Jackski4]

1 minute ago, The Enforcer said:

But then what is the difference between that and the darker green over Southern England?

Cloud cover

[pdiddy]

14 minutes ago, clark3r said:

I am starting to believe that I will get my snow cover for the first time since 2010. Excited by charts, it is def coming home England

I grew up in Sompting and there was plenty of snow in the 70s.  Less so since, I'm sure.  I think there could be a few surprise snow events in the coming days with cold air in situ

[danm]

14 minutes ago, Catacol said:

Though Dec 2010 didn’t last much beyond the end of the month. You’ve got the winter of 09/10 tacked on there rather than Jan 11.

The big difference for me this time is the background state. Dec 10 always looked likely to break down though it kept being delayed. This time around a breakdown is much harder to see - at least at the moment.

Yes agree. It was really the calendar year of 2010 that was quite remarkable. Early Jan 2010 very cold and snowy, after a cold December 2009, and then a frigid December the following winter, which actually started early in late November. 

Edited December 3, 2022 by danm

[phil nw.]

Understandably anticipation is building for this cold spell but please guys try to keep on topic.Too many one liners and unrelated chat do clutter up what is a good thread tonight.

Remember others are reading to learn about the model outputs,

Thanks everyone.

[Mark wheeler]

Can I ask please . Am I looking in the right place here for the Ens / Mean etc? Seems people post these means quicker than I can ever get access . Is there a better way ? Thanks in advance .

Edited December 3, 2022 by Mark wheeler

[Vikos]

The site is really slow in building up, maybe time for a new threat?