Winter 2022/23 - Moans, Ramps & Chat

[Guest]

14 hours ago, S Bragg said:

To my untrained eye I see pretty good cross-model agreement for a sizeable low to move in in around 10 days' time, signalling the end of any cold weather (maybe temporarily, hopefully) and a reversion to a more typical December weather type.  Over on the model thread, I see nothing but wall-to-wall asserions that the models are basically wrong and that the cold will still be in place.

Am I missing something?  As I said, I have zero knowledge of how these models work and may well be missing something but to me all I see in the mod thread is denial, denial, denial.

Yes you have pretty much summed things up nicely there Bragg.

The lows passing our way in the Atlantic will be present, anything lower than 965mb will be enough to move any cold for sure, especially if ball shaped. Presently the odds are growing for such lows and enough to move the jet steam.

[Glaswegianblizzard]

I think the issue with the forecasted low is that many experienced posters don’t see any building blocks for such an intense low to even develop in the way that the models are suggesting.

[TheOgre]

The snow on the iPhone weather app has gone. Still looking bitterly cold but I have no snow on any of my apps. Dry cold spell?

[V for Very Cold]

Here’s a quandary for you....... World Cup watching or MOD thread watching tonight?
 

(never been a footy fan anyway lol)

Edited December 4, 2022 by V for Very Cold

[V for Very Cold]

And I thought I’d post one of these given the chaos in the models

 

[The Enforcer]

2 hours ago, Glaswegianblizzard said:

I think the issue with the forecasted low is that many experienced posters don’t see any building blocks for such an intense low to even develop in the way that the models are suggesting.

Polar Vortex: "Help. I've got stuck in Eurasia and the UK is about to get an extended cold spell."

Jet: "No can do, mate, I'm heading off to Africa, your only hope is if the Weather God can conjure up a hurricane."

Weather God: "Two hurricanes, actually."

[Guest]

42 minutes ago, The Enforcer said:

Polar Vortex: "Help. I've got stuck in Eurasia and the UK is about to get an extended cold spell."

Jet: "No can do, mate, I'm heading off to Africa, your only hope is if the Weather God can conjure up a hurricane."

Weather God: "Two hurricanes, actually."

Deep lows create thier own jet stream (boundaries), as such don't need permission of existing boundaries or streams...

Edited December 4, 2022 by DCee

[johncam]

Met really don't have any real snow away from far north and over mountains , think there is going to be a lot of disappointment on the mod thread

[emmett garland]

Good luck England

[Guest]

Just now, johncam said:

Met really don't have any real snow away from far north and over mountains , think there is going to be a lot of disappointment on the mod thread

Indeed. Scotland will do well enough to be called a cold spell. The North a cold snap, Midlands South a cool snap followed by mild and a very wet spell. It's really very clear to the professionals I think.

[johncam]

Just now, DCee said:

Indeed. Scotland will do well enough to be called a cold spell. The North a cold snap, Midlands South a cool snap followed by mild and a very wet spell. It's really very clear to the professionals I think.

Yep will be good to have our first air frost this week , how expectations have fallen 

[I remember Atlantic 252]

20 minutes ago, DCee said:

Indeed. Scotland will do well enough to be called a cold spell. The North a cold snap, Midlands South a cool snap followed by mild and a very wet spell. It's really very clear to the professionals I think.

Aye, it's Tues and Wed the days when many models have shown mild air winning, they cannot be ignored

[Chris Smith]

I was never a believer in GFS's 30cm/20cm forecasted snowfalls for Thurs/Fri here, but that appears to have been "downgraded" now to 1cm on Thursday morning. Oh, and some frosts. It sure beats the North Sea gloom though, so I'm happy.

Edited December 4, 2022 by Chris Smith
missing word

[cheese]

1 hour ago, DCee said:

Indeed. Scotland will do well enough to be called a cold spell. The North a cold snap, Midlands South a cool snap followed by mild and a very wet spell. It's really very clear to the professionals I think.

Potentially 4 ice days in a row showing up on the iOS weather app for Leeds. I’d call that a cold spell, assuming it materialises. 
 

Edited December 4, 2022 by cheese

[The Enforcer]

1 hour ago, I remember Atlantic 252 said:

Aye, it's Tues and Wed the days when many models have shown mild air winning, they cannot be ignored

This week or next week?

[northwestsnow]

 

Well the apps are now responding to my complaint about low minima

Onto 18z - frost  watch activated  

[The Enforcer]

2 hours ago, Frigid said:

Funny how the worst of the charts are in Fl, normally the other way around lol. Models really want to break down this cold spell.

 

2 hours ago, chris55 said:

We all remember the Iberian low dramas at 144+ ……. Look where it ended up, zero mild uppers feeding into the U.K. 

Just something to keep in mind when looking at the 168-240 charts, especially in this kind of set up.

 

2 hours ago, LRD said:

As I thought, ECM is a HUGE 850s outlier

I was thinking earlier that usually we find ourselves under a standard west-east mobile set-up and then the models start running with the idea that extremely cold air is going to head our way in 10 -14 days time. At any time between the 4-10 day range, reality kicks in and the cold is watered down in terms of potency and longevity at best or completely removed at worst.

This time the current and short-term set up is a blocked one, but highly likely leading to nothing really that extreme, however one chooses to measure it: 850s, 2m temps, dew points, wind chill or anticipated frontal/convection snowfall etc etc. Against that backdrop, where I have a reasonable expectation in 10 days time to be able to finally wake up to a frost, instead the models are trying to persuade me that a raging hurricane that is going to destroy my house is the more likely mid-range outcome.

Edited December 4, 2022 by The Enforcer

[The Enforcer]

8 minutes ago, Ben Sainsbury said:

Absolute corker. Beginning to develop our own cold pool over the UK with the slack low overhead. Can see it since 850s aren't mixing out.

Another one I'd been pondering:

I have been seeing many references to 850s mixing out as cold air reaches the UK, but why would this occur when the air coming in now from the east is below average, enabling lower temperatures to establish over the UK, then the northerly introduces polar air, which is only threatened by mild air if/when this hurricane turns up?

[Ben Sainsbury]

3 minutes ago, The Enforcer said:

Another one I'd been pondering:

I have been seeing many references to 850s mixing out as cold air reaches the UK, but why would this occur when the air coming in now from the east is below average, enabling lower temperatures to establish over the UK, then the northerly introduces polar air, which is only threatened by mild air if/when this hurricane turns up?

This is because the Norwegian/North Seas are both relatively mild (given the time of year & above average SSTs). So through the process of convection, heat is carried up through the atmosphere, leading then to modification of the air, which in this case making the airmass a little less cold.

Edited December 4, 2022 by Ben Sainsbury

[Frigid]

Yes please! Haven't seen these temps since 2018. Think these are based off the GFS 

[cheese]

iOS app now showing three consecutive days with highs of -1C

[Mapantz]

5 minutes ago, cheese said:

iOS app now showing three consecutive days with highs of -1C

In contrast, it should make it to 4 or 5°C here on those days. 

[The Enforcer]

13 minutes ago, Man With Beard said:

This is classic pub run. It really does feel like the GFS has been to the pub, the whole evolution made me dizzy, everything in the North Atlantic is going in the opposite way from normal!

Only to find that the ECM had already been in there for 6 hours.

[The Enforcer]

2 minutes ago, Battleground Snow said:

Gefs keeping below or around the -6 line for 9 days is pretty rare for early December...

I sense more upgrades in the depth of cold on the overnight runs

Eyebrows being raised at GFS 18z, but it seems to be offering a largely 'average' solution. ECM 12z, on the other hand required an extension to the y-axis:

2 hours ago, MATTWOLVES said:

Looks like a wild member of the pack as well regarding 850s. 

I've just noticed though a few straddlers towards runs end with that -10 being threatened!

Early sign of a festive run up to Xmas or just me talking through mistletoe and wine  

Either way folks something is coming home..I bloody well insist  either way a decent chunk of members keep us pretty cold.

 

[The Enforcer]

More meddling from the Weather God, yesterday evening: "Can't have frontal snow reaching lowland UK - go on a 'wishbone effect' course." This evening:

Edited December 4, 2022 by The Enforcer