Winter 2022/23 - Moans, Ramps & Chat

[snowspotter]

I really enjoyed winter . Now we’ve moved into spring I guess it’s when the first 20c is forecast can’t be long now can it ?

[Andy Bown]

1 hour ago, markyo said:

Well, same old story now, Winter 2022/23 is none existent, one slightly cooler spell in December, not cold by any means and now zonal for the foreseeable, just praying the up coming summer hasn't the misery of record breaking temps again. There is only so much crap weather that can be endured.

Well it was cold in December, the coldest spell since 2010. 

[Weather-history]

14 minutes ago, Andy Bown said:

Well it was cold in December, the coldest spell since 2010. 

8th-17th Dec 2022 CET: -1.9°C

Apparently that is a slightly cooler spell...........

Will someone wake me up?

[Derecho]

More uninspiring output today. I'm really not liking this January at all. Excessively mild which in itself I don't mind as long as it isn't unsettled... but it is.

Just like the failed easterly of late January 2019, the failure to keep the cold going and allow for a Euro high to sit in place has resulted in a pattern that has been hard to shift.

The first thing to go wrong was that shortwave over Iceland that prevented a really cold northerly from sticking. We then had that low over the west deepen too much returning most of us to much milder then average temperatures.

Had we returned to much colder air following that deep low and it's milder air the weekend before christmas, I think the pattern now would have been very different.

However we are stuck in this rut. A Greenland High around Christmas didn't materialise (only the GFS really went for it) and that has just allowed the Polar Vortex to consolidate after such a promising start to the winter with that deep cold.

We need some major source of amplification. The Scandi High that formed at the start of December retrogressed and allowed for a prolonged cold spell despite an unfavourable strat. No such evidence of one within the next 10 days at least though. 

So I'm now having to put faith in an SSW delivering something. La Nina's often have mild Februaries and it's hard not to believe this one will go the same way. Even if we get an SSW, the Vortex has to split in a way that favours us. It ain't much use if all the cold air around an Arctic high ends up in NE Canada for example.

Of course, late February and March can see snow but the sun in stronger at that point and any snow often melts quickly unless we see a really cold airmass.

Whatever happened to the toppler northerlies of the 2000s? Even in milder winters we got them and I remember looking forward to snow showers coming in off the North Sea. They seem to be rare these days.

Edited January 6, 2023 by Quicksilver1989

[mb018538]

27 minutes ago, Quicksilver1989 said:

More uninspiring output today. I'm really not liking this January at all. Excessively mild which in itself I don't mind as long as it isn't unsettled... but it is.

Just like the failed easterly of late January 2019, the failure to keep the cold going and allow for a Euro high to sit in place has resulted in a pattern that has been hard to shift.

The first thing to go wrong was that shortwave over Iceland that prevented a really cold northerly from sticking. We then had that low over the west deepen too much returning most of us to much milder then average temperatures.

Had we returned to much colder air following that deep low and it's milder air the weekend before christmas, I think the pattern now would have been very different.

However we are stuck in this rut. A Greenland High around Christmas didn't materialise (only the GFS really went for it) and that has just allowed the Polar Vortex to consolidate after such a promising start to the winter with that deep cold.

We need some major source of amplification. The Scandi High that formed at the start of December retrogressed and allowed for a prolonged cold spell despite an unfavourable strat. No such evidence of one within the next 10 days at least though. 

So I'm now having to put faith in an SSW delivering something. La Nina's often have mild Februaries and it's hard not to believe this one will go the same way. Even if we get an SSW, the Vortex has to split in a way that favours us. It ain't much use if all the cold air around an Arctic high ends up in NE Canada for example.

Of course, late February and March can see snow but the sun in stronger at that point and any snow often melts quickly unless we see a really cold airmass.

Whatever happened to the toppler northerlies of the 2000s? Even in milder winters we got them and I remember looking forward to snow showers coming in off the North Sea. They seem to be rare these days.

You can't really get excessively mild weather in winter without it being unsettled sadly. Mild temperatures always associated with W/SW'erly winds, which bring cloud and rain along with them. I'd just like a break from the rain now. Everything is sopping wet. From a selfish IMBY point of view, 3 of my local golf courses are water logged, which prevents me playing! Just a couple of weeks to dry off would be great. Doesn't look like coming any time soon though.

[Derecho]

1 hour ago, mb018538 said:

You can't really get excessively mild weather in winter without it being unsettled sadly. Mild temperatures always associated with W/SW'erly winds, which bring cloud and rain along with them. I'd just like a break from the rain now. Everything is sopping wet. From a selfish IMBY point of view, 3 of my local golf courses are water logged, which prevents me playing! Just a couple of weeks to dry off would be great. Doesn't look like coming any time soon though.

It is possible, Feb 1998 and Feb 2019 saw lots of fine weather despite being exceptionally mild, problem at the moment is the pattern is very cyclonic so it is the worst of both worlds.

[mb018538]

21 minutes ago, Quicksilver1989 said:

It is possible, Feb 1998 and Feb 2019 saw lots of fine weather despite being exceptionally mild, problem at the moment is the pattern is very cyclonic so it is the worst of both worlds.

Yep, this is true. February benefits from the lengthening days and more solar input than Dec/Jan too.

Need some very strong, dry and warm anticyclones to get warm weather in winter without a SW feed.

This was the day in 2019 that saw 21c. Exceptional set up with 850s in excess of 10c. I remember being outside in a T shirt and it felt more like May or June.

[emmett garland]

4 hours ago, snowspotter said:

I really enjoyed winter . Now we’ve moved into spring I guess it’s when the first 20c is forecast can’t be long now can it ?

Feb 22nd Id imagine

[SummerShower]

If we are to have weeks of zonal weather, at least give us a named storm for a bit of interest! (without any destruction though)  

We've not even had a named storm this whole season yet!

[S Bragg]

Well, that's your lot for winter then?  See you next December I suppose.

[TwisterGirl81]

6 hours ago, Kentspur said:

Cold March anyone? Latest CFS zonal winds forecast

S*d that, i'm ready for sun and warmth now  seeing as snow or shall I say decent snow is so rare for us down in southern coastal counties. I'd rather it mild as will save on energy bills too.....

Edited January 6, 2023 by TwisterGirl81

[al78]

7 hours ago, snowspotter said:

I really enjoyed winter . Now we’ve moved into spring I guess it’s when the first 20c is forecast can’t be long now can it ?

There was one recent year when it was in February.

[al78]

2 hours ago, S Bragg said:

Well, that's your lot for winter then?  See you next December I suppose.

Writing off any chance of wintry weather now is like writing off the chance of a heatwave in early July just because the summer has been mediocre up to that point. There is plenty of time for cold and snow and severe winter weather can occur into March as in 2013 and 2018.

[al78]

5 hours ago, mb018538 said:

You can't really get excessively mild weather in winter without it being unsettled sadly. Mild temperatures always associated with W/SW'erly winds, which bring cloud and rain along with them. I'd just like a break from the rain now. Everything is sopping wet. From a selfish IMBY point of view, 3 of my local golf courses are water logged, which prevents me playing! Just a couple of weeks to dry off would be great. Doesn't look like coming any time soon though.

You can in the south with a high in an optimal place centred just east of the UK to advect very mild air from a long way south.

UK experiences hottest winter day ever as 21.2C is recorded in London | UK weather | The Guardian

WWW.THEGUARDIAN.COM

---

Parts of Britain exceed temperatures in Malibu, Athens and Crete

 

[alexisj9]

7 hours ago, snowspotter said:

I really enjoyed winter . Now we’ve moved into spring I guess it’s when the first 20c is forecast can’t be long now can it ?

Nope just a wet and windy part of winter.

[Sunny76]

9 hours ago, Weather-history said:

lol, you know when things are bad when this old chestnut is starting to be wheeled out.

Saying that, winter 1854-55 CET was something like 5.6°C by the 9th of January and then came the 2nd half.......

 

Winter 1852-53 had a CET of 6.4°C by the start of February.......and this Birmingham tailor gave up on winter and started flogging off his winter gear.    

 

 

Guess what the CET for February was.........0.6°C   and March was 3.4°C

If only he had held his nerve...........

 

Don’t write things off just yet.

[MP-R]

52 minutes ago, al78 said:

Writing off any chance of wintry weather now is like writing off the chance of a heatwave in early July just because the summer has been mediocre up to that point. There is plenty of time for cold and snow and severe winter weather can occur into March as in 2013 and 2018.

Well technically it’s early July now in equivalence. Difference of course is it’s much easier for heatwaves to pop up in summer than it is to detonate such a pestering winter westerly spell.

[swfc]

19 minutes ago, Sunny76 said:

Don’t write things off just yet.

Don't think it's a case of writing things off but the mo and nhp is shocking. I'm a real coldie but looking at things there's a chance the rest of winter could be rank. Bit like looking into the future ie ssw etc

[Don]

2 hours ago, TwisterGirl81 said:

S*d that, i'm ready for sun and warmth now  seeing as snow or shall I say decent snow is so rare for us down in southern coastal counties. I'd rather it mild as will save on energy bills too.....

Nope, although I would rather have snow now than in March, I would take it anytime!! 

[Vikos]

Can someone please tell me the rules when you can officially call the winter dead/gone?

[That ECM]

2 minutes ago, Vikos said:

Can someone please tell me the rules when you can officially call the winter dead/gone?

May

[Summer8906]

On 05/01/2023 at 18:53, NEVES SCREAMER said:

Yes people talking about 'seasonal ' weather. In UK mild wet and windy in winter, spring, summer, autumn is just as seasonal as anything else. How many years have we had appalling summers because of southerly tracking low pressures on a never ending jet stream. Loads. Same with winter. In fact same anytime the jet stream gets in to such a position. Like now.

It isn't really seasonal weather in the classic sense though, except between, say, mid-September and early December.

Most people would, I suspect,  agree that the term "seasonal weather" means warm (above 20C maxima), sometimes sunny, and sometimes thundery in summer; cold (certainly single-figure maxima almost every day) with occasional snow in winter; and variable but not overly wet weather with sharp temperature swings in spring.

Edited January 6, 2023 by Summer8906

[Mike Poole]

12 minutes ago, Vikos said:

Can someone please tell me the rules when you can officially call the winter dead/gone?

I think it is usually done in late November on here.  This year was an exception with the nailed on cold start.

Edited January 6, 2023 by Mike Poole

[*Stormforce~beka*]

15 minutes ago, Vikos said:

Can someone please tell me the rules when you can officially call the winter dead/gone?

1st February ...

[BLAST FROM THE PAST]

33 minutes ago, *Stormforce~beka* said:

1st February ...

Nope, April 30th

 

BFTP