Model Output Discussion. 3/12/2022. How cold will it get?

[Ali1977]

These are max temps for the 10 days from this Thurs - MAX Deep ice on rivers and lakes

[Howie]

Just now, Quicksilver1989 said:

Not without support in the ens, up to day 7 you could argue the control might be even better. P19 is the best:

Azores low looks less threatening scanning through the ens.

If anything it looks like the low is servibg to pump warm tropical air into the block and strengthen it

[ICE COLD]

Don’t really no what to say except for GFS 18=

MENTAl

[Eagle Eye]

1 minute ago, Quicksilver1989 said:

Not without support in the ens, up to day 7 you could argue the control might be even better. P19 is the best:

Azores low looks less threatening scanning through the ens.

You weren't kidding about P19 

Let's hope that somehow all of the models start to trend towards this (unless you want your energy bills to stay within the bounds of numbers)

[SizzlingHeat]

The issue with this is that it would be so cold, there is going to be a huge health crisis with so many people not able to afford to put their heating on. This would be catastrophic for millions of people, literally frozen in their homes. From that perspective if this was anywhere near close, it has picked the wrong year! There would be so many excess deaths. 

[Snowy L]

I make that 2 weeks of -5 uppers or below for much of central/northern England

[Singularity]

So now we know the next modelling saga - a an easier-going one for many: How squashed south will the low across the UK be this weekend?

GFS has its own trend toward more of that but other modelling hasn’t been so keen. Least of all ECM. Yet all of those kept all of the UK very cold at the surface through next week. What a situation to be in.

 

[TallPaul]

41 minutes ago, Lampostwatcher said:

Gfs 18z is exactly what we all want 

For the weekend 

❄🌨🌨🌨🌨

Hmmm, dilemma... lampost watching, or watching England bury France? 

Give me those big flakes falling past those lights anytime!! 🌨

[SouthLondonCold]

And to think just a few months ago I could hear the sirens of fire engines putting out wildfires in greater London...

Now GFS showing nearly a fortnight of ice days

Cheers all around guys, these charts really are special and if any year is gonna deliver it's gonna be crazy 2022.

[Bats32]

Just now, SouthLondonCold said:

And to think just a few months ago I could hear the sirens of fire engines putting out wildfires in greater London...

Now GFS showing nearly a fortnight of ice days

Cheers all around guys, these charts really are special and if any year is gonna deliver it's gonna be crazy 2022.

Feels like yesterday I was watching the models predicting over 40C and thinking "surely not". Now I'm doing exactly the same again but with a big freeze all in the same year!

[Johnp]

3 minutes ago, Snowy L said:

I make that 2 weeks of -5 uppers or below for much of central/northern England

I think other parts of the country will be cold for just as long too. The coldest air on your example there is towards the south east. 

[danm]

Nothing better than a pub run special to send you to bed in a good mood!

[Allseasons-Si]

High pressure pulls in but by god it will be cold with the snowfields covered in white,...i don't think there would be much thaw either with low solar input.

who knows what may happen in the next two weeks but i suspect there will quite a few happy bunnies

Edited December 5, 2022 by Allseasons-si

[Ice Day]

The Control out to 180 keeps the positive theme going

 

The mind really boggles of what *could* be possible over the next few weeks.  BUT - those who have been here for some time all wear the scars of previous failed chases, so we aren't over the line yet!

[Paul_1978]

28 minutes ago, MATTWOLVES said:

 

 

I know it won’t end up like this, but 2cm on the M62 corridor between Goole and Leeds (basically my neck of the woods)

[Bricriu]

Being greedy, assuming the latest GFS is correct, I wonder in the latter stages of this run would the mild air eventually win out. I would be ecstatic if the cold could somehow how hang on for Christmas. I know it's highly unlikely that  it will.

[lorenzo]

 

Enjoyed the Siberia Action on this run, the pacific conduit lighting up 

[Snowmadsam]

Just for fun!! 18z shows a 1060mb scandi! 
 

[Downburst]

10 minutes ago, blizzard81 said:

This forum is on fire now. Not bad for a Monday night lol.

You’ll be lighting a fire, fire place or not this time next week  

[Cheshire Freeze]

In terms of brutal, prolonged cold I can't see this GFS run being topped. Right out to the 21st it shows us being completely frozen over.

[blizzard81]

Just now, Ice Day said:

The Control out to 180 keeps the positive theme going

 

The mind really boggles of what *could* be possible over the next few weeks.  BUT - those who have been here for some time all wear the scars of previous failed chases, so we aren't over the line yet!

So true. So nice to see but we must remember that this is the pub run. The glass half full part of me says most of the greatest cold spells slowly build like this one is but then suddenly upgrade greatly at short notice.

[TallPaul]

42 minutes ago, Johnp said:

Hey Siri, show me where the M4 is:

 

Pains me to say, I had to hit the 'like' button with that...

[Darkcloud]

22 minutes ago, CreweCold said:

It really is an extreme run...probably one at the extreme end of the envelope of possibilities, but nevertheless we'd be looking at a CET well below freezing for the period and this scenario would potentially set us up for the coldest December on record. That may be somewhat unlikely, but the fact it's even shown as a possibility is bonkers.

That's what we said about this summers temps......

Truly insane!

[Frosty_wsm]

2 minutes ago, Paul_1978 said:

I know it won’t end up like this, but 2cm on the M62 corridor between Goole and Leeds (basically my neck of the woods)

Be thankful for that 2cm, I'm in the white clear patch down south lol. 

[icykev]

5 minutes ago, Ali1977 said:

These are max temps for the 10 days from this Thurs - MAX Deep ice on rivers and lakes

You could say a slight chill in the air❄

Seriously cold windchill +204 

Many other days too

Night all