Model Output Discussion. 3/12/2022. How cold will it get?

[Lukesluckybunch]

Just now, northwestsnow said:

By this point 

North = frozen solid

South = snow drifts..

Come on ECM bring it home

But that's a day 10 chart again...feet in ground!

[TSNWK]

Anywhere north of -2 850 would be safe on those 168 and 192 charts.. -2 to -1 margin and 0 rain..I’ll say north of Thames estuary across to Gloucester is in the safe zone. Just Cornwall in the plus zone.. 

[northwestsnow]

Just now, Lukesluckybunch said:

But that's a day 10 chart again...feet in ground!

Haha 

Mild outlier.

[Johnp]

9 minutes ago, Lukesluckybunch said:

But what about the milder spell..between 168-192

I guess you’re a glass half empty kind of guy!

[ICE COLD]

Morning, haven’t had time to read through the forum but all I have to say is WALLOP . Great run across the board .

[TSNWK]

1 minute ago, Lukesluckybunch said:

But that's a day 10 chart again...feet in ground!

Yes.. but it’s not like it’s day 10 after mild dross.. it’s a day 10 that is extending and intensifying an already decent if not very good 1 week spell of winter weather..

[Liam Burge]

Good morning to the 30 people that just hopped onto the forums! I love the little feature showing you how many people are viewing the thread. Jumped from 70 to 100 in like 5 seconds, guess everyones alarm is set for 7am for the ECM run!

[Johnp]

4 minutes ago, Lukesluckybunch said:

But that's a day 10 chart again...feet in snow !

Corrected for you. 

[V for Very Cold]

It’s obviously not that cold yet..... servers not crashed! 

great charts this morning.... expecting to see stats of close to 1000 members tonight.,

[That ECM]

Worth taking a second to view.

[Turnedoutniceagain]

Seriously??

Snowmageddon for the South

 

 

 

[Johnp]

Just now, Turnedoutniceagain said:

Seriously??

Bank! Seriously, please let that happen. Unfortunately anything is likely to be a downgrade compared to that. 

[Premiere Neige]

8 minutes ago, Liam Burge said:

Good morning to the 30 people that just hopped onto the forums! I love the little feature showing you how many people are viewing the thread. Jumped from 70 to 100 in like 5 seconds, guess everyones alarm is set for 7am for the ECM run!

Alarm on for 7am, go to phone, see 10 pages of comments since about 9pm last night, feel good inside!

[mulzy]

11 minutes ago, TSNWK said:

Anywhere north of -2 850 would be safe on those 168 and 192 charts.. -2 to -1 margin and 0 rain..I’ll say north of Thames estuary across to Gloucester is in the safe zone. Just Cornwall in the plus zone.. 

We shouldn't get too fussed about the snowline in days 7-10.  Just wonder at the broadscale pattern across all the models - it's cold or even very cold.

[Weathizard]

As the excitement settles down, worth remembering charts like that aren’t that uncommon at day 8+ range, we’ve seen many many times in the past and they always seem to be just out of touching distance.

I'm sceptical about that ECM run as it’s out of kilter with its longer range ensembles from the 12z suite yesterday and this mornings 0z GEFS suite.

 

Also, ALL ABOARD the BLIZZARD bus. 🌨

 

[mountain shadow]

25 minutes ago, January Snowstorm said:

@216hrs we're locked into a freezing spell!

As others said earlier when the background signals are good it seems all roads lead to cold.

If that ECM is anywhere correct, it's a locked in bitter spell until month end.

[Beanz]

Has everybody left their kids in charge of their computers this morning?? 
 

 

[frosty ground]

25 minutes ago, Lukesluckybunch said:

But what about the milder spell..between 168-192

What about it? 

[chris55]

24 minutes ago, Lukesluckybunch said:

But what about the milder spell..between 168-192

If you want heavy frontal snowfall you need the cold/milder boundary to meet. The moisture is held within the milder air.

ECM is perfect as the cold pushes back! Meaning those staying on the right side of the boundary hit the jackpot (and that’s a fair chunk on the 00z

[Man With Beard]

Just now, chris55 said:

If you want heavy frontal snowfall you need the cold/milder boundary to meet. The moisture is held within the milder air.

ECM is perfect as the cold pushes back! Meaning those staying on the right side of the boundary hit the jackpot (and that’s a fair chunk on the 00z

Yes, the closer the milder air flirts with the UK, the more the heavy snow chances increase.

However, when you see charts like ECM at T192, you also have to accept it's not a given that we will remain cold - every mile correction further north represents a location taken out of the freeze. 

The runs of the last 48 hours have generally not had the low reaching the UK, so will be interesting to see if the 12Zs back the 0Zs up or not.

[Nick F]

Just checked the models, wow, an edge-of-the-seat knife edge thriller next week, especially for those in the south. Those lows are rather close for comfort on 00z GFS and EC re: mild/cold boundary. UKMO has the lows approaching further south, but the precip on the northern flank of the low(s) not reaching the south. So swings and roundabouts. Keep cold and dry like UKMO or high risk high rewards for snow lovers from GFS/EC.

[The Tall Weatherman]

OMG. The latest ECM run needs to calm down. Would be quite nice though !️

[Snowboy111]

You just know that the low will correct south and it’ll be another 2013 Channel Islands event again.

[Sky Full]

Pre-Christmas blizzard, anyone….?     
 

    
 

   
 

Courtesy of GFS +252h.  But it really looks like this kind of setup will occur at some point…..

Edited December 6, 2022 by Sky Full

[Windysun1]

4 minutes ago, chris55 said:

If you want heavy frontal snowfall you need the cold/milder boundary to meet. The moisture is held within the milder air.

ECM is perfect as the cold pushes back! Meaning those staying on the right side of the boundary hit the jackpot (and that’s a fair chunk on the 00z

Personally i would rather that first Low to end up in say...the ivory coast! I believe it would be just a sloppy mess in the South unless you were above 250 metres. It would be more beneficial to get the colder air more established and entrenched before looking for any battle ground situation. This Low could change proceedings further down the line.

No expert just my 2 pence.

Having said all that models are excellent in the unreliable infact they are some of the best ive ever seen. BOOM