Model Output Discussion - New Year and Beyond

[feb1991blizzard]

36 minutes ago, mushymanrob said:

It might do, but theres no sign of anything here...

 

I think he's talking about a trop response from the displacement that has just occurred, not future SSW potential.

[mushymanrob]

16 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:

I think he's talking about a trop response from the displacement that has just occurred, not future SSW potential.

Fair play

[phil nw.]

Later in week 2 on GFS 06z shows the displaced spv away from the pole hence the forecasted rise in the 10hPa temperatures then.

The spv still shows it's intact over the Atlantic side but somewhat weaker.

Modeling at 500hPa won't really show any effects yet as it is only now showing this polar displacement at the extended range.

[Mark wheeler]

No comments on the 12z so far , so I will break the silence in here with a small observation. 

GFS, UKMO and Gem at 144 hrs . GFS and Gem have high pressure in control but the UKMO less so with it quite windy for many especially the further north you go .

Edited January 27, 2023 by Mark wheeler

[That ECM]

25 minutes ago, Mark wheeler said:

No comments on the 12z so far , so I will break the silence in here with a small observation. 

GFS, UKMO and Gem at 144 hrs . GFS and Gem have high pressure in control but the UKMO less so with it quite windy for many especially the further north you go .

Ukmo just a bit slower getting there?

[MattH]

4 hours ago, Catacol said:

Yep - outer edges of GFS is likely to be the best place to look for cold at the moment because I don't see much other than westerly dominated weather over the next 2 weeks at least. I'm going to hunker down and get through to the first round of the Six Nations and launch my consciousness at the one week's holiday coming to me in the middle of February and try and switch off from the weather for a bit. Even in our best winters (bar 62/63) we know westerlies dominate numerically and are never far away - so while it is disappointing to see a flattish spell it goes with the territory for us. Strat disruption has not fallen kindly (and precursor pattern has gone), pacific drivers not helping, ENSO/QBO/Solar from a seasonal perspective not in the right zone either. AAM now firmly heading negative too, a sign of reducing amplification

Anomaly chart remains solidly westerly

If anything changes, I'll be back.... 

Finally, in days, a realistic post. Those continuously using MJO phase 3 Feb anom plots and searching for a Scandinavian high are way off it and, oddly that includes some mets as well! - can't understand why MJO phase 3, in Jan(!) is being misused as a Feb phase 3 precursor for Scandinavian height rises and then filtered into a few rediculous GFS runs beyond 300hrs as a potential outlook with the way the strat is going and the overall GSDM profile too. 

I guess it is that point in the winter though, desperate times, desperate measures, so get that - However, those hoping for a early Dec redux with any sort of blocking pattern that has dominance above circa 60N have a long (long!) wait ahead...

Matt. 

Edited January 27, 2023 by MattH

[Don]

8 minutes ago, MattH said:

 guess it is that point in the winter though, desperate times, desperate measures, so get that - However, those hoping for a early Dec redux with any sort of blocking pattern that has dominance above circa 60N have a long (long!) wait ahead...

Matt. 

Any hope for later in February in your opinion?

[That ECM]

26 minutes ago, MattH said:

Finally, in days, a realistic post. Those continuously using MJO phase 3 Feb anom plots and searching for a Scandinavian high are way off it and, oddly that includes some mets as well! - can't understand why MJO phase 3, in Jan(!) is being misused as a Feb phase 3 precursor for Scandinavian height rises and then filtered into a few rediculous GFS runs beyond 300hrs as a potential outlook with the way the strat is going and the overall GSDM profile too. 

I guess it is that point in the winter though, desperate times, desperate measures, so get that - However, those hoping for a early Dec redux with any sort of blocking pattern that has dominance above circa 60N have a long (long!) wait ahead...

Matt. 

Well if that doesn’t stop many having a go whilst learning and posting their thoughts nothing will eh?

[KTtom]

33 minutes ago, MattH said:

Finally, in days, a realistic post. Those continuously using MJO phase 3 Feb anom plots and searching for a Scandinavian high are way off it and, oddly that includes some mets as well! - can't understand why MJO phase 3, in Jan(!) is being misused as a Feb phase 3 precursor for Scandinavian height rises and then filtered into a few rediculous GFS runs beyond 300hrs as a potential outlook with the way the strat is going and the overall GSDM profile too. 

I guess it is that point in the winter though, desperate times, desperate measures, so get that - However, those hoping for a early Dec redux with any sort of blocking pattern that has dominance above circa 60N have a long (long!) wait ahead...

Matt. 

Im intrigued to get your thoughts on what has changed since you replied with no text just a laughing emoji when a poster mentioned 'winter is over' just a week ago, then almost post the same? You also mentioned previously about week 1 Feb being one to watch? Just interested to hear your thoughts on why the suddern switch ? Baring in mind the poster you laughed at wasn't a 'pro'.

Edited January 27, 2023 by KTtom

[seabreeze86]

Not a million miles away from something interesting at 120hrs . High over the pole slightly better placed for us probably won’t be enough to stop the onslaught though 

[Robin2012]

6 minutes ago, That ECM said:

Well if that doesn’t stop many having a go whilst learning and posting their thoughts nothing will eh?

Exactly this!! Why do so many people come on here with a ‘shove it down your throats’  attitude and a ‘I told you so’ post

We are all weather enthusiasts be it cold/mild/stormy etc etc so why the constant one up man ship attitudes, it really is sad

[Gowon]

this looks interesting

[tight isobar]

42 minutes ago, MattH said:

Finally, in days, a realistic post. Those continuously using MJO phase 3 Feb anom plots and searching for a Scandinavian high are way off it and, oddly that includes some mets as well! - can't understand why MJO phase 3, in Jan(!) is being misused as a Feb phase 3 precursor for Scandinavian height rises and then filtered into a few rediculous GFS runs beyond 300hrs as a potential outlook with the way the strat is going and the overall GSDM profile too. 

I guess it is that point in the winter though, desperate times, desperate measures, so get that - However, those hoping for a early Dec redux with any sort of blocking pattern that has dominance above circa 60N have a long (long!) wait ahead...

Matt. 

A tag “ harsh matt- “ don’t ya think!? .. the maddens aren’t even having impacts on the A- momentum prognosis  right about now!.. and are a’ considered feature in prognosis into week 2! The 60n will it won’t it stabilise- or reverse then fold.. shouldn’t even cluster include, at a crossroad phase!!- the arctic shuffling annom,is in the same ballparks... as the AM- and supposedly “atm jet forcing “.... 

[Gowon]

Scandi high incoming I reckon

[tight isobar]

Anyway here The ecmwf @168 .. any guesses where the overiders are synced!!! the structure pv inflation mode- can.. And IMO be overridden!!. Let’s see ay!!

[alexisj9]

1 minute ago, tight isobar said:

Anyway here The ecmwf @168 .. any guesses where the overiders are synced!!! the structure pv inflation mode- can.. And IMO be overridden!!. Let’s see ay!!

It's still mid latitude though, and we'll see if it moves higher next time. I have my doubts, the UK high on most models now, is probably where we are heading.

[Cloud 10]

12z JMA just about gets there.

 

[tight isobar]

8 minutes ago, alexisj9 said:

It's still mid latitude though, and we'll see if it moves higher next time. I have my doubts, the UK high on most models now, is probably where we are heading.

Ya don’t need a HLB- for Scandinavian heighten formation!.. an- mlb- and a hp-cell in sync... are the order of the day. Again- some are gearing to hard for notable block formats.....when a rolling dynamics... will/ could load the gun!!

Edited January 27, 2023 by tight isobar

[nick sussex]

Oh for just a bit more upstream amplitude . The ECM has some glancing blows of cold but frustratingly most of that remains across the North Sea .

[tight isobar]

So the ecm12z doesn’t quite cut the mustard! Via polar forces..but I’ll hang In-There 2/3 days yet

Edited January 27, 2023 by tight isobar

[skifreak]

Well some of the ensemble members are certainly interesting from my perspective, cold zonality sort of pattern with screaming westerlies and the FL close to the surface in Highland Scotland! Could be epic for Glencoe and Nevis Range!

[stodge]

Evening all

As I feared, last night's "signal" for height rises into Scandinavia is more muted and any such rises are quickly flattened by the strong northern arm of the jet.

As others have also mused, some of the other pieces of the jigsaw are just not there for the next fortnight.

That's a huge way from calling time on winter as a whole and while many on here aren't enthused about a cold mid to late February, we often see a colder interlude or interludes between the increasing warmer trend that marks the transition from winter to spring. 

[Daniel*]

ECM 12z was pretty tantalising but it seems MH has already seen the future so that is settled……

[LRD]

21 minutes ago, Daniel* said:

ECM 12z was pretty tantalising but it seems MH has already seen the future so that is settled……

This the actual chart from the same time

Just goes to show how misleading anomaly charts are

[LRD]

Poor ECM 850s if you want cold although some might involve cold surface conditions despite the 850s

Fortunately for me, I don't want cold now as I wanna get to some football matches next month and don't need the weather getting in the way

Edited January 27, 2023 by LRD