Model Output Discussion - New Year and Beyond

[Gowon]

The ops are more or less showing the same thing this morning with UKMO now on board with the more amplified pattern.

GEM has us under a slack ESE at day 10

 

ICON going the same way

GFS still has us under high pressure at day 10

 

Edited January 27, 2023 by Gowon
wrong charts

[That ECM]

4 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

GFS drops any notion of a block..

GEM kind of keeps the faith.

We need a good EC.

T192. Could suggest a few more gefs on board. Mean a slight improvement. Agreed op goes other way this morning. Nothing resolved. 

[KTtom]

23 minutes ago, That ECM said:

T192. Could suggest a few more gefs on board. Mean a slight improvement. Agreed op goes other way this morning. Nothing resolved. 

As its quiet, any chance someone could give a laymans explanation of this chart, it baffles me! Obviously nothing to do with pressure ?

[Gowon]

4 minutes ago, KTtom said:

As its quiet, any chance someone could give a laymans explanation of this chart, it baffles me! Obviously nothing to do with pressure ?

The lighter the shade means less certainty in that area I think 

[Lukesluckybunch]

ECM looks like it will be saying no to any developing high over scandi..too much energy going over the top!..also with no renewed push of heights in the atlantic a decent 216 chart looks highly unlikely!

Edited January 27, 2023 by Lukesluckybunch

[Gowon]

Just now, Lukesluckybunch said:

ECM looks like it will be saying no to any developing high over scandi..too much energy going over the top!

There's a bit more energy over the top this morning. I think it'll be like the GEM

[Lukesluckybunch]

2 minutes ago, Gowon said:

There's a bit more energy over the top this morning. I think it'll be like the GEM

doesnt look great!.how about that absolute garbage at 216..lovely southwesterly!!

Edited January 27, 2023 by Lukesluckybunch
adding

[That ECM]

9 minutes ago, Lukesluckybunch said:

doesnt look great!.how about that absolute garbage at 216..lovely southwesterly!!

T240 was not what you were expecting though I guess?  Don’t think 12z will look like this. Don’t think I’ve seen ecm produce anything like this before.

[KTtom]

There is still a willingness to ridge to Scandi, however, absolutely no chance of anything of interest here if the heights over Greenland are correct., if anything they are getting worse?

 

Edited January 27, 2023 by KTtom

[lassie23]

 best describes this morning's output

[Drifter]

Led up the garden path by the joker model again have we? There’s a surprise!

Pretty disappointing morning all round - not even sure I see any promise in the UKMO as mentioned above?

[Gizzy]

Just a general long time lurker on here, with the odd Post, I just think the models are all over the place, flipping around and nobody quite sure what to expect next.

I am hopeful that by this time next week there will be lots of hope in here ( for coldies) with something very interesting within scope for mid Feb.

[nick sussex]

The ECM sadly didn’t kick on from last nights more encouraging set up.

Because of the proximity of the PV you have to have that more elongated and digging south . The bowling ball PV and troughing means there’s no chance .

Ironically the UKMO showed a small interest just at the time the ECM jumps ship. Its day 7 looks more likely to evolve at least towards high pressure over the UK and the Arctic high is better positioned .

The ECM though is still far more preferable than the GFS which is dreadful.

It at least tries to dig some energy se at day ten and pressure still remains high to the ne .

Edited January 27, 2023 by nick sussex

[Marting]

ECM ensembles not really showing any significant warming trend, the winds are slowly shifting direction over time and fairly focussed by day 14, I suggest high pressure may be showing again later. This mornings operational run at the warmer end of the runs. Interesting times with the current warming shifting things around.

Martin

[joggs]

Still vile output for coldies(myself included) but to no suprise really. Can't really see ATM,where a decent cold spell will spring from. Could be a long old end to winter looking at longer term sigs imo,coupled with the limpet Greenland PV.

Please, not a cold spring

[northwestsnow]

8 minutes ago, joggs said:

Still vile output for coldies(myself included) but to no suprise really. Can't really see ATM,where a decent cold spell will spring from. Could be a long old end to winter looking at longer term sigs imo,coupled with the limpet Greenland PV.

Please, not a cold spring

Agreed.

Absolutely don't want a crappy cold and wet Spring.

 

Would dearly love an Eastetly before the end of Feb.

[Stuie]

You could at a push say anything past Feb 2 is a lottery.

 

[mb018538]

1 hour ago, That ECM said:

T240 was not what you were expecting though I guess?  Don’t think 12z will look like this. Don’t think I’ve seen ecm produce anything like this before.

ECM 240 is the classic +NAO winter chart. Ridge western USA, trough eastern USA, big thermal gradient and supercharged jet stream powering across the UK. Yuck.

[nick sussex]

The ECM ensembles still have a large spread this morning .

The spread over the UK and to the east is similar to last night .

You can also see the large spread in slp.

In terms of the UKMO let’s indulge it although I have my doubts now that the ECM has left the party .

The PV is slightly further west and less rounded . The Arctic high is positioned more favourably . It also has that shortwave exiting ne Canada.

Thats likely to develop as it encounters the PV , because of the forcing to the ne some shortwave energy is likely to cut ese across to northern Norway . Upstream the shortwave will deepen and phase with the PV this causes anti clockwise effect on that so helping to hold some energy back.

 

Edited January 27, 2023 by nick sussex

[mb018538]

It is also an unsettled outlier. There are runs still having pressure at 1040mb by day 10, so plenty of more amplified solutions still on offer.

[ANYWEATHER]

There may not be an Illusive Scandi high on the horizon, but there is no relentless wind and rain either......so watch this space in the next few days ,will be interesting. ...☺

[carinthian]

18 minutes ago, nick sussex said:

The ECM sadly didn’t kick on from last nights more encouraging set up.

Because of the proximity of the PV you have to have that more elongated and digging south . The bowling ball PV and troughing means there’s no chance .

Ironically the UKMO showed a small interest just at the time the ECM jumps ship. Its day 7 looks more likely to evolve at least towards high pressure over the UK and the Arctic high is better positioned .

The ECM though is still far more preferable than the GFS which is dreadful.

It at least tries to dig some energy se at day ten and pressure still remains high to the ne .

About sums it up this morning Nick.  A step back from GFS and ECM that pushes any thought of amplification out of the equation However , still a window of opportunity for a build NE of the high shown by UKMO at 168t  with possible end result of some kind of Scandinavian High development as shown by GEM  period 168-240t.   UKMO also has some significant cold air to the NE developing. So maybe not just yet the time to put the De-icer spray back into the hibernation secret cupboard.  We need to see GFS/ECM runs later today to move towards that development again. I think the models uncertain post 144t.

C

[northwestsnow]

2 minutes ago, mb018538 said:

It is also an unsettled outlier. There are runs still having pressure at 1040mb by day 10, so plenty of more amplified solutions still on offer.

Got a bad feeling the PV is going to be too strong .

Hope I'm wrong.

[Weather-history]

23 hours ago, IDO said:

 

 

 

3 minutes ago, mb018538 said:

It is also an unsettled outlier. There are runs still having pressure at 1040mb by day 10, so plenty of more amplified solutions still on offer.

This is ridiculous.

Its getting to the stage you might as well bin any ECM op runs from about 192hr onwards

[alexisj9]

1 minute ago, Weather-history said:

 

This is ridiculous.

Its getting to the stage you might as well bin any ECM op runs from about 192hr onwards

We were expecting volatility, due to the warming happening now. So it's just a case of staying calm and watching what eventually evolves. If you look higher up, it seems to be changed there, changing what is forecast down here. So way to fast anyway. Downwelling might be quick, but is unlikely to be instant. We've already seen that with other warmings this winter season. We'll see what happens later on.