Model Output Discussion - New Year and Beyond

[TEITS]

26 minutes ago, mushymanrob said:

Well the current anomalies are clear.... Early February is looking very unsettled with a strong Westerly feed, unsettled and stormy is still the expected pattern and theres zero heights over Scandinavia.

Theres no sign of an Easterly here in fact these charts are about as far as they could be from allowing one.

It would be highly unusual for a FI GFS run to be more accurate than these.... but stranger things have happened.

Actually, the EPS by feb 10 is very similar to previous EPS charts we had before the recent cold spell.. so IMHO if theres any chance of a cold spell, then itll be a repeat performance of the recent, with low dropping over us and ridging building to our West. However in early January the TPV wasnt as strong as it is now.. As i see it, theres no chance of an Easterly , if we get another cold spell itll come via the North as the last one did.

edit...i see Nick has posted whilst i was composing...

 

 

 

48hrs ago I would of agreed with you.

The models are now backing away from the stormy period. Whilst an E,ly is an outsider I wouldn't say there is no chance. The outlook for Feb is looking much more settled but we could have mild SW,lys, High centred over the UK, or dare I say an E,ly.

[Northwest NI]

37 minutes ago, mushymanrob said:

It would be highly unusual for a FI GFS run to be more accurate than these.... but stranger things have happened.

 

 

Maybe it’s an anomaly

[sebastiaan1973]

12 minutes ago, TEITS said:

48hrs ago I would of agreed with you.

The models are now backing away from the stormy period. Whilst an E,ly is an outsider I wouldn't say there is no chance. The outlook for Feb is looking much more settled but we could have mild SW,lys, High centred over the UK, or dare I say an E,ly.

In De Bilt the chance for a 'E' is very small. But who knows

[Gowon]

2 minutes ago, sebastiaan1973 said:

In De Bilt the chance for a 'E' is very small. But who knows

It shows winds veering SSW, possibly helping the ridge build NE? 

It also shows there's little evidence of anything from the NW which some think our next cold weather is most likely to come from.

[feb1991blizzard]

2 minutes ago, Gowon said:

It shows winds veering SSW, possibly helping the ridge build NE? 

It also shows there's little evidence of anything from the NW which some think our next cold weather is most likely to come from.

That is the UK - it might not reach Holland.

[Gowon]

 

3 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:

That is the UK - it might not reach Holland.

It's not that far away though is it? 

Edited January 26, 2023 by Gowon
Changed my mind

[BremX]

This mornings GFS run looks poor. Even more all over the place than it has been, though its nice it's given us some chasing in fantasy island. Personally where I am, I'd just like some actual weather of some sort, it's been pretty boring so far this winter.

[Gowon]

Up to 300+hrs and the atlantic storms has barely reached the UK

[IDO]

The GFS 06z is more in line with my thoughts and the repeating pattern of this winter:

D8-15

The tPV slowly crossing to our north from the NW, eastwards. Hopefully that will allow an Atlantic ridge to build from mid-Feb for another cold spell. The Artic high trolled us in the last cold spell, but never really helped with a x-polar flow, so I will assume this polar high will follow that pattern. The disposition suggest UK trough (as per this winter's cold spells) if we get another cold spell, and I am unsold on the Scandi high that has been talked about all winter.

[Eagle Eye]

There's some chance that the MJO Phase 3 lag could build a Scandi high but imo the amplification won't be strong enough but I'm not ruling it out. I'm not dismissing early February but the cold chance is on the lower end of the scale there. I still think mid-late February may be the best chance given the teleconnection patterns.

[minus10]

Disappointing model output for coldies this morning...it looks to me that we are in for 'light zonal' / hp based weather...

...for 10 days time..

...all kind of adding up to the same thing really..milder, cloudy weather, some rain although not much...absence of potent pm shots and always chance of temps above average, particularly in any brighter spells. ..

...not what many of us including me wanted but on the other hand good doable weather to get some of those late winter jobs done...maybe hints of a change/ cooldown as we head into mid Feb re ec ens..0z

...still some winter left so will be washing my towels not throwing them in yet....

[snowray]

Not a pretty mean for D10, none less I would certainly agree that if we can't get a decent cold blast I would prefer HP to more wind and rain in early Feb. Maybe mid month we will get lucky.

 

[alexisj9]

4 hours ago, Stuie W said:

Todays 2yo drawing award goes to Mogreps.

 

I'm not looking anywhere near the end, however have spotted the single for amplification at the same time as GFS and ECM. Something to watch now, till it get to the reliable, then we can see where it might go. No clear signal afterwards, as to how long it stays, or whether it get cold or gets eaten away. All the scatter shows the possibility of all options are open.

[alexisj9]

4 hours ago, bluearmy said:

Why are we looking at pressure rather than heights at day 10 ??  

People look at the warm heights and panic the it won't be cold I guess. The charts look nice but the uppers apart from yesterday's GFS 12z don't look that great, yet 

It does depend on what the final pattern might be, or even if the signal is still there at t0

[geordiekev]

2 hours ago, TEITS said:

48hrs ago I would of agreed with you.

The models are now backing away from the stormy period. Whilst an E,ly is an outsider I wouldn't say there is no chance. The outlook for Feb is looking much more settled but we could have mild SW,lys, High centred over the UK, or dare I say an E,ly.

Yep, once again the weather models making mugs of us. Barely 18 hours ago this had 99.9% chance of not happening with some even going for 0% with about 3 pages of posters all banging the same drum.

Clearly this is an evolving situation & the direction of the strong jet profile coming out of USA makes big differences. Personally just happy to see something other than the jet making us the target & if we can get some lows heading to Europe from the Asian side of the vortex, things could peak interest again.

Long live the block, although clearly we're back into FI being days due to the result of buckling around 1st Feb

Edited January 26, 2023 by geordiekev

[mushymanrob]

4 hours ago, TEITS said:

48hrs ago I would of agreed with you.

The models are now backing away from the stormy period. Whilst an E,ly is an outsider I wouldn't say there is no chance. The outlook for Feb is looking much more settled but we could have mild SW,lys, High centred over the UK, or dare I say an E,ly.

The models might be backing away from a stormy period, but the Anomalies arent.... 9/10 its the ops that blink first!

EDIT .... dont get me wrong, im only commenting on what the current anoms show, if they change then so be it. Im not fan of gales and heavy rain!

Edited January 26, 2023 by mushymanrob

[phil nw.]

My thinking is that the displaced spv heading towards Canada in the modeling was mirrored in the troposphere pretty closely over last weekend.

No surprise to see this 500hPa pattern going into next month.

I was hoping for some amplification in the Atlantic jet but I think for now that it is too strong.

Beyond the next 2 weeks would I hope see better ridging as mean zonal winds continue to decline.We would then see more chances of some colder shots from the north  or maybe east if ridging takes off towards Scandinavia.

The later in February the better chance of a late cold spell when the jet weakens and the MJO may assist in entering a more favourable phase.

Edited January 26, 2023 by phil nw.

[Allseasons-Si]

The ICON starting to show heights building to the west of the UK now

12z 174 vs 00z 180

and the 12z at 180...

the gfs and to an extent the control was the first at sniffing this amplified pattern out the other day and now the ECM this morning also latching onto this,yes it's reletively in fl so nothing to get exited about just yet so let's see how this pans out over the next few days

meanwhile,...the jma strat charts are starting to show an uptick in temps at 10/30 hpa,this is to no surprise though as it has been well documented from a couple of weeks or so ago

the jma also splts the spv here at 168 with Daughter lobe over the Alantic and parent lobe over N Scandi,again i am no strat expert and i could be talking rubbish but could this be more favourable for UK cold?

 

Edited January 26, 2023 by Allseasons-si
Added text

[Allseasons-Si]

This is better so far from the gfs with more ridging into the Norwegian sea,also tpv further NW

12z 210 vs 06z 216.

could be a stonker this.

Edit: just to add,...the GEM vs this morning  :)

 

Edited January 26, 2023 by Allseasons-si
typo

[Battleground Snow]

2 minutes ago, Allseasons-si said:

This is better so far from the gfs with more ribging into the Norwegian sea,also tpv further NW

12z 210 vs 06z 216.

could be a stonker this.

Gem having a think about it too.... Are we maybe up to a 10% chance now

Just now, Battleground Snow said:

Gem having a think about it too.... Are we maybe up to a 10% chance now

 

[Allseasons-Si]

2 minutes ago, Battleground Snow said:

Gem having a think about it too.... Are we maybe up to a 10% chance now

Nar,..i'd say 11%

Heights @gaining traction here at day ten.

Edited January 26, 2023 by Allseasons-si

[IDO]

GEM and GFS looking at dry and settled UK HP at D10:

 

Good agreement there.

Edited January 26, 2023 by IDO
???

[alexisj9]

8 minutes ago, Allseasons-si said:

This is better so far from the gfs with more ridging into the Norwegian sea,also tpv further NW

12z 210 vs 06z 216.

could be a stonker this.

Edit: just to add,...the GEM vs this morning  

 

Hmm so all those with a higher high, ha e a low under, where does it get there from, that's where we need to watch 

[Mike Poole]

There is now definite interest at T240 of the vortex being pulled into such a shape that it allows significant WAA advection from our SW to our north, which may allow the centre of the high to be pulled east of the UK, allowing a southeasterly flow to develop, potential easterly later.  GEM shows this well:

But GFS very much on the same page, although not as well aligned.

Edited January 26, 2023 by Mike Poole

[Drifter]

Everyone shouting this at the scandi high on the 12z