Model Output Discussion - New Year and Beyond

[andymusic]

gfs 12z easterly/reversal again

[Allseasons-Si]

1 minute ago, alexisj9 said:

Hmm so all those with a higher high, ha e a low under, where does it get there from, that's where we need to watch 

It breaks off from around the Azores 120>,...run it through

[Cold Winter Night]

Surprising agreement between GFS and GEM at 240h, and that EC 0z 240 this morning.

Can't ignore that from the high resolution runs.

Only UKMO at 168h doesn't go along.

[alexisj9]

1 minute ago, Cold Winter Night said:

Surprising agreement between GFS and GEM at 240h, and that EC 0z 240 this morning.

Can't ignore that from the high resolution runs.

Only UKMO at 168h doesn't go along.

It's got a low in the right place that should move west and help the high up, but pv doesn't look helpful. 168 should look better next run I think 

[goosey007]

[Allseasons-Si]

JFF,...incoming!!!

[Battleground Snow]

4 minutes ago, Mike Poole said:

There is now definite interest at T240 of the vortex being pulled into such a shape that it allows significant WAA advection from our SW to our north, which may allow the centre of the high to be pulled east of the UK, allowing a southeasterly flow to develop, potential easterly later.  GEM shows this well:

But GFS very much on the same page, although not as well aligned.

It would be ironic, usually a monster PV to the north west is the enemy, but this time it could actually drag WAA just where we want to it to set up a scandi block

[bluearmy]

46 minutes ago, Allseasons-si said:

The ICON starting to show heights building to the west of the UK now

12z 174 vs 00z 180

and the 12z at 180...

the gfs and to an extent the control was the first at sniffing this amplified pattern out the other day and now the ECM this morning also latching onto this,yes it's reletively in fl so nothing to get exited about just yet so let's see how this pans out over the next few days

meanwhile,...the jma strat charts are starting to show an uptick in temps at 10/30 hpa,this is to no surprise though as it has been well documented from a couple of weeks or so ago

the jma also splts the spv here at 168 with Daughter lobe over the Alantic and parent lobe over N Scandi,again i am no strat expert and i could be talking rubbish but could this be more favourable for UK cold?

 

Can’t be sure about heights from the temp anoms Simon.  I can’t see jma heights so can’t comment 

At day 7 there is only one spv which is nw scandi/svaalbard. You cannot assume that this simply imprints down into the trop. If you check where the tpv and trop ridges are at day 7 you will see that they don’t match to the extent that would make life v simple 

[Battleground Snow]

Lovely anomaly chart at 306 hours

[Allseasons-Si]

The gefs mean at 150 is starting to show a kink in heights now,...good steps

12z 150 vs 06z 156.

Edited January 26, 2023 by Allseasons-si

[Cold Winter Night]

Looks like even more fun deep in FI.

[Allseasons-Si]

Retrogression alert

Scandi to Greeny

[Drifter]

How on earth is this going to be explained by the experts *if* this comes to fruition? 

[Cleeve Hill]

The fun seems to start at 195 hours on the 12z. 8 days away. I’ll be watching. 

[Allseasons-Si]

Just now, Drifter said:

How on earth is this going to be explained by the experts *if* this comes to fruition? 

We are explaining it to them

[geordiekev]

18 minutes ago, Cold Winter Night said:

Surprising agreement between GFS and GEM at 240h, and that EC 0z 240 this morning.

Can't ignore that from the high resolution runs.

Only UKMO at 168h doesn't go along.

UKMO really the only one not to see the Pacific amplification which seems to be a driver of the changes we're seeing

[Battleground Snow]

2 minutes ago, Drifter said:

How on earth is this going to be explained by the experts *if* this comes to fruition? 

Perhaps this.... Strong amplitude mjo with a 10 day lag.

@Cold Winter Night has touted this already 

[Allseasons-Si]

3 minutes ago, Battleground Snow said:

Perhaps this.... Strong amplitude mjo with a 10 day lag.

@Cold Winter Night has touted this already 

 

 

Ties in well,...gfs is a snap on that chart.

[nick sussex]

So the intrigue mounts !

Increasing chance of high pressure being in charge but where will it go ?

We await the ECM ! 

[tight isobar]

On 25/01/2023 at 17:12, tight isobar said:

Well I’ve been banging this drum for sometime @ polar/polar continental draft... and with the mjo formats— and evolution on the hemisphere.. why not indeed!.. however I’m still prone for earlier Synoptics of colder than currently modelling.. fairly soon now!- stay steadfast

Not much more to add- atm.. as my last 8 posts or so have consisted of the same basis.. and that continues!!! Keep watching

[northwestsnow]

If EC det maintains the theme I'll be watching EC 46 from behind the sofa  

[suxer]

5 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

If EC det maintains the theme I'll be watching EC 46 from behind the sofa  

Don't watch it at all mate

[Allseasons-Si]

Had to see it in gif mode and by heck that's a strong geo pot height anomaly

Edited January 26, 2023 by Allseasons-si
typo

[seabreeze86]

Well it’s 384 hours away but nice to look at 

If this long shot is to come to fruition this is how it usually goes 

 

The GFS randomly picks up a signal in la la land and goes with it for a couple of days 

Then the ECM picks up the signal at day 10 and goes bananas with it and has a easterly from Moscow to Vancouver 

GFS then drops the idea and finds a shortwave to add to the drama 

We all await the UKMO to come on board which it eventually does at 120hrs 

GFS goes back to the original idea it had a week ago at 96hrs 

People moan as it looks dry 

[KTtom]

8 minutes ago, seabreeze86 said:

Well it’s 384 hours away but nice to look at 

If this long shot is to come to fruition this is how it usually goes 

 

The GFS randomly picks up a signal in la la land and goes with it for a couple of days 

Then the ECM picks up the signal at day 10 and goes bananas with it and has a easterly from Moscow to Vancouver 

GFS then drops the idea and finds a shortwave to add to the drama 

We all await the UKMO to come on board which it eventually does at 120hrs 

GFS goes back to the original idea it had a week ago at 96hrs 

People moan as it looks dry 

You forgot how the Met will leave it to the last minute to stop mass hysteria...secretly that have been eyeing this up for weeks.