Model Output Discussion - New Year and Beyond

[Penrith Snow]

High pressure dominates the South of the UK on theGFS 0z with the jet well north.

Choice seems to be between mild and dry and this mornings GFS or mild and wet on last nights ECM, no sign of winter.

Andy

[Ali1977]

18 minutes ago, Penrith Snow said:

High pressure dominates the South of the UK on theGFS 0z with the jet well north.

Choice seems to be between mild and dry and this mornings GFS or mild and wet on last nights ECM, no sign of winter.

Andy

GFS FI looks like a sign of winter - just a shame it’s deep FI

Edited January 26, 2023 by Ali1977

[feb1991blizzard]

GFS op does it again (to a certain extent).

[KTtom]

3 posts this morning, 2 of which show 384 chart from GFS which doesnt even have sub -5 uppers. No point wasting time on the other models then. 

Edited January 26, 2023 by KTtom
Cant count 🤐

[Gowon]

ECM's trying it!

36 minutes ago, KTtom said:

3 posts this morning, 2 of which show 384 chart from GFS which doesnt even have sub -5 uppers. No point wasting time on the other models then. 

Why don't you do it if it bothers you?

[That ECM]

Every coldie is telling them selves not to get drawn in and then off we go to find reasons why it might happen. all back for the o6z just in case it’s still there.  ecm wantsto be talked about also. got to love a coldies optimism.

 

Edited January 26, 2023 by That ECM

[Ali1977]

Response to strat warning maybe here. Very diff to what the METO were predicting for a more stormy set up (although they did say dryer in the south) Interesting model watching ahead with MJO and strat implications maybe throwing the usual patterns in the bin. 

Edited January 26, 2023 by Ali1977

[Gowon]

Maybe the mighty GFS and JMA was onto something - the ECM is playing catch up

[mulzy]

Yes, ECM day 10 quite amplified.  Maybe, just maybe something is afoot.

[bluearmy]

7 minutes ago, mulzy said:

Yes, ECM day 10 quite amplified.  Maybe, just maybe something is afoot.

hmmmm

my feasibility meter has me worrying about a nuclear holocaust now …….

[offerman]

12 minutes ago, mulzy said:

Yes, ECM day 10 quite amplified.  Maybe, just maybe something is afoot.

Afoot of snow hopefully …. 

[Drifter]

14 minutes ago, bluearmy said:

hmmmm

my feasibility meter has me worrying about a nuclear holocaust now …….

What do you mean?

[Had Worse]

1 minute ago, Drifter said:

What do you mean?

Possibly also known as a BOOM meter.

[snefnug]

5 minutes ago, Drifter said:

What do you mean?

Probs more likely to happen than that chart verify?

[winterof79]

9 minutes ago, Drifter said:

What do you mean?

Blue is referring to his previous post and its quite funny  

A few on here may get a surprise as the NWP gets to grips with what is/hasbeen an extended warming period in the strat.

[nick sussex]

The ECM has decided to deliver a tease at day ten .

Elongated PV digging into the Atlantic and Arctic high in a favourable position.

It still would need a lot to go right from there to deliver an east or ne flow but it’s a start at least .

Will it last into this evening ?

[goosey007]

Is the main hunt officially on ….more runs needed…..

[Chesil View]

All jff at the moment but interesting that this mornings ecm amplifies at a similar point to where yesterday's 12z gfs started the process.

It would be the biggest laugh of the winter if something cold/snowy did come of this and the gfs is found to have beaten the ecm to it.

As I say all just for fun st the moment.

[Stuie]

Todays 2yo drawing award goes to Mogreps.

 

[bluearmy]

Annoying that the eps clusters remain broken so we have to wait for the meteociel stamps. The mean charts aren’t  particularly encouraging but the spread at day 10 reveals there is a cluster which takes heights further north 

 

[northwestsnow]

Well, I aint going to lie , I'd  completely thrown in the towel for the first half of Feb and surely Im not alone .

Anyway, EC 0Z kind of follows yesterday's GFS with High pressure building from the south mid term.

Right now I'd be delighted to avoid an Atlantic onslaught but I'm not going to get carried away until we see momentum .

Fingers crossed...

Edited January 26, 2023 by northwestsnow

[northwestsnow]

TBF EC mean is dreadful.

Let's hope the det leads the way.

[IDO]

I would not hang my hat on a D10 ECM chart, especially when showing height rises, they are rarely correct. The ens show a complete outlier for pressure:

The mean shows a fall in pressure in London along with most ens, whilst the op has a pressure rise. The D10 mean shows little respite from the expected pattern:

The main tPV chunk to our NW and not a pretty sight.

The ECM gets the rise in pressure due to it modelling a cut-off upper low in the Med, that stops the UK high sinking:

Possible, but at D10 too far out to have any confidence.

So IMBY we will see around 8-days of dry weather before it becomes more unsettled:

Edited January 26, 2023 by IDO
grammar

[Ali1977]

1 minute ago, northwestsnow said:

TBF EC mean is dreadful.

Let's hope the det leads the way.

EC Control following the det at day 9, it’s still rolling out though. 

[northwestsnow]

Just now, IDO said:

I would not hang my hat on a D10 ECM chart, especially when showing height rises, they are rarely correct. The ens show a complete outlier for pressure:

The mean shows a fall in pressure in London along with most ens, whilst the op has a pressure rise. The D10 mean shows little respite from the expected pattern:

The main tPV chunk to our NW and not a pretty site.

The ECM gets the rise in pressure due to it modelling a cut-off upper low in the Med, that stops the UK high sinking:

Possible, but at D10 too far out to have any confidence.

So IMBY we will see around 8-days of dry weather before it becomes more unsettled:

Big spread with pressure towards the end so although an outlier there might be a cluster supporting the det..