Model Output Discussion - New Year and Beyond

[Nick F]

12 minutes ago, nick sussex said:

The GFS now trying to perform a miracle against the PV which sharpens up and tries to develop a ridge to the ne .

My goodness, it occasionally throws out these rogue tease runs, but it's usually reserved for the pub run. Goes against the grain too much I think ... but it is FI

[Snowman.]

Relying on a trigger shortwave dropping down the North Sea with heights building over at D7+ to setup an easterly. 
 

Yeah don’t feel like chasing that one. Nice to see however. 

[Tim Bland]

Remarkable similarities between 6z and 12z

[Lampostwatcher]

12z gfs 

Scandi high time

FI

[Northern Sky]

I suspect the GEM paints a rather more plausible outlook at 240hrs...

[alexisj9]

1 minute ago, Mike Poole said:

Well I have to say, you’d offer very long odds on getting a draw of WAA like this with the current setup!  GFS T264:

There are outliers, and then there are outliers!

I take it it is an outlier. Would this even be in the ensembles yet?

[January Snowstorm]

The perfect Easterly out of nowhere lol.

If it did come to pass, wow would be some turnaround just when everyone had packed their bags!!

[Lukesluckybunch]

1 minute ago, alexisj9 said:

I take it it is an outlier. Would this even be in the ensembles yet?

most likely a outlier but the trend does try and start earliesh around 192..with a first push of heights northwards

[Derecho]

You'd think the GFS was off on one and most likely will be.... however if we can keep the PV bottled up over Canada and pressure low over the Italy region who knows....

The last cold spell just gone managed to endure for quite a bit of time because the models were overestimating how easily the Atlantic would push in and the low pressure over Italy stopped our high sinking south-east. Something similar here? Probably asking too much in all honesty but never say never.

[sunnijim]

4 minutes ago, Snowman. said:

Relying on a trigger shortwave dropping down the North Sea with heights building over at D7+ to setup an easterly. 
 

Yeah don’t feel like chasing that one. Nice to see however. 

I felt the same last Summer when one GFS ensemble member picked out 40c  + out in FI

Oh how we laughed....

Edited January 25, 2023 by sunnijim

[Ali1977]

Imagine if this became reality The pro’s would be scratching their heads!! 

[Derecho]

Just now, Ali1977 said:

Imagine if this became reality The pro’s would be scratching their heads!! 

What you are seeing there is an SSE - A sudden south-easterly.

[feb1991blizzard]

Agree with Mike Poole and Nick F & Nick S, there is usually some ens support when you get this, i would go as far as to say its not even a 1% chance, its 0%, sure there has been a few very cold runs setting up in the suites lately but none from the East, its been either N'ly topplers and WNW flows - zonal but with little slithers of -10c making it across but mainly brief.

Edited January 25, 2023 by feb1991blizzard

[andymusic]

gfs 12z - easterly/reversal past 240 hrs into la la land - not likely to happen - new trend????????? you never know - but gonna need more runs to see if it "beds in" and take a look at the ensembles to see where it fits in - an outlier or not??????

[Gowon]

5 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:

Agree with Mike Poole and Nick F & Nick S, there is usually some ens support when you get this, i would go as far as to say its not even a 1% chance, its 0%, sure there has been a few very cold runs setting up in the suites lately but none from the East, its been either N'ly topplers and WNW flows - zonal but with little slithers of -10c making it across but mainly brief.

It's not come out the blue - I'm pretty sure the ECM had a cluster like this and the JMA had two consecutive runs that built a ridge to our NE.

[swilliam]

Just now, Gowon said:

It's not come out the blue - I'm pretty sure the ECM had a cluster like this and the JMA had two consecutive runs that built a ridge to our NE.

Yes it was cluster 4 in the ECMF ensemble that was shown earlier (7 members) but not so fast

[Allseasons-Si]

Lol the gfs does a jma from yesterday at day ten day>

maybe sniffing out a new change.

 

[tight isobar]

Well I’ve been banging this drum for sometime @ polar/polar continental draft... and with the mjo formats— and evolution on the hemisphere.. why not indeed!.. however I’m still prone for earlier Synoptics of colder than currently modelling.. fairly soon now!- stay steadfast

[carinthian]

9 hours ago, carinthian said:

Morning all. Not a bad chart from GFS in the medium term and shows some promise to the NE. Lets see what develops along the polar front as it heads towards the developing Scandinavian trough. Still possible a sinker in the making along the baroclinic boundary could change the longer term runs. The models do not look overly mild at this stage. 

A rogue run ? Possibly but not out of the question. The latest op from GFS has a shortwave dropping to advance the formation of a Easterly towards the British Isles. However, the main feature of  interest in the chart below is the intensity of the vortex as it drops a lobe of very cold air into Mid- Atlantic -50c at 500mb level and that in its self could be the cause of the build of high pressure towards Scandinavia. Of course we will have to wait and see but never the less an exciting development in the making.

C

[Iceman2606]

GFS 12z is off on one I see...

[Cuban Zebra]

Whatever the GFS 12Z has had, I’ll have a bit too!!!

[Lukesluckybunch]

word of caution guys...the mean at 204..looks flat as pancake!

[alexisj9]

2 minutes ago, Cuban Zebra said:

Whatever the GFS 12Z has had, I’ll have a bit too!!!

Went to the pub for lunch instead of tea I think.

[tight isobar]

3 minutes ago, Lukesluckybunch said:

word of caution guys...the mean at 204..looks flat as pancake!

Remember 1/ either iether catch up.. go to the spag- ens on the 12z gfs and we’ll see where she sits!!!

[Johnp]

Seems to be one other ens member in agreement, so an approx 6% chance at this stage

Edited January 25, 2023 by Johnp