Model Output Discussion - New Year and Beyond

[nick sussex]

In terms of the high and where it goes .

You can really correlate that with the shape of the upstream troughing and how far south it digs .

The problem at the moment is the lack of elongation and dig south in that troughing within the day 10 period .

You really need that so it can force the high further ne.

 

[alexisj9]

Just now, nick sussex said:

In terms of the high and where it goes .

You can really correlate that with the shape of the upstream troughing and how far south it digs .

The problem at the moment is the lack of elongation and dig south in that troughing within the day 10 period .

You really need that so it can force the high further ne.

 

Let the pattern evolve, all we know right now, is a high is likely to build over us, there is a chance it might build further north than we thought a few days ago, and a smaller chance it might move to scandi 

[Cloud 10]

1 minute ago, nick sussex said:

In terms of the high and where it goes .

You can really correlate that with the shape of the upstream troughing and how far south it digs .

The problem at the moment is the lack of elongation and dig south in that troughing within the day 10 period .

You really need that so it can force the high further ne.

 

 

Be interesting to see what the king of amplification (aka.ECM)comes up with shortly.

[northwestsnow]

GEFS promoting pressure building. 

 

[IDO]

Looking at the D12 mean, the GFS op looks like it is on its own, as the mean remains the same, much flatter to our east versus the op:

Control D12:

 

Looking at the GEFS for London, and at D6-7 the 2m temps looks an outlier on the op and def out of sync with its members, so not quite sure what the op is seeing:

That anomaly makes me think the op maybe out of kilter. More runs needed due to GEM at D10 not far off GFS. Bearing in mind how bad the gFS has been post-D10 I am reluctant to take it seriously ATM.

[Bricriu]

The Holy grail would be if the Pacific High could connect with the high heading North West to completely split the vortex . Of course it won't happen. Is the GFS detecting something the other models will catch on to soon. That must be the hope now. I guess the ECM tonight might shed some light on all this. By the way when is the next ec46 update? 

Edited January 26, 2023 by Bricriu

[That ECM]

I’m not sure I’d be calling anything yet.  But I like the indecision and doubt to the NE. If nothing else but for the interest.

[Bricriu]

Just now, That ECM said:

I’m not sure I’d be calling anything yet.  But I like the indecision and doubt to the NE. If nothing else but for the interest.

A lot of pros will be scratching their heads  if it does come off - it will be like that WTF moment with Ian(I forget his surname) several years ago. 

[bluearmy]

12 minutes ago, Bricriu said:

A lot of pros will be scratching their heads  if it does come off - it will be like that WTF moment with Ian(I forget his surname) several years ago. 

Brown 

[Allseasons-Si]

The ECM's going for it and slightly better than this mornings

12z 168 vs 00z 192,...abviously the timescales are out but the pattern looks slightly west.

[bluearmy]

The ecm 12z will not be the same as the 00z run

the Arctic high is ejecting towards the Kara sea 

We shall see how the euro ridge aligns with a different polar profile 

[Stuie]

8 minutes ago, Allseasons-si said:

The ECM's going for it and slightly better than this mornings

12z 168 vs 00z 192,...abviously the timescales are out but the pattern looks slightly west.

it is, waiting for next frame...

EDIT: Still goes for Scandi heights.

Final Edit: 

Edited January 26, 2023 by Stuie W

[mountain shadow]

The stormy start to February now looks to be a non starter. HP very close to the UK I think.

 

 

 

 

 

 

[Allseasons-Si]

Huge potential from here with the tpv digging south in the Atlantic and WAA pumping north ahead of it...

EC at day ten.

Edited January 26, 2023 by Allseasons-si
typo/added text

[That ECM]

It could be wrong of course but I’m not seeing this sinking se as was what many were suggesting. 
 

As said earlier, all very interesting. 

[Stuie]

Quite a bizarre setup in FI land...

 

 

Look at us, just look, the whole NH is nippy... love these FI charts. 

Edited January 26, 2023 by Stuie W

[Cold Winter Night]

Well, just when it seemed that winter chances were slipping away, the interest has returned.
EC at 240h follows a track that is a bit different from 0z and GFS/GEM, but still ends with blocking and a negative tilt on the Atlantic at Day 10.

Considering that these developments appeared on the high resolution runs, and that there was not much like this to be found in the extended EPS ensemble this morning, I doubt if this will be picked up by the EC46 tonight, since that starts off at Day 14 of the regular EPS.
Don't be too disappointed if the EC46 output is underwhelming compared to the 12z high resolution runs.

Could very well be an example of the operationals leading the ensembles.

[nick sussex]

Not bad from the ECM op. Keeps the interest going and at least high pressure looks more likely now than more wet and windy weather.

At least we see that PV and troughing becoming more elongated which is really key .

 

[TEITS]

Just now, nick sussex said:

Not bad from the ECM op. Keeps the interest going and at least high pressure looks more likely now than more wet and windy weather.

At least we see that PV and troughing becoming more elongated which is really key .

 

Indeed and it's incredible to see such a change from a stormy period to high pressure. I have said this before but this winter has been odd for me from a forecasting perspective as the output at times has been strange.

History tells me that an E,ly is more than plausible from the set up at +144 onwards but history also tells me how it can go pearshaped.

[Stuie]

2 minutes ago, TEITS said:

Indeed and it's incredible to see such a change from a stormy period to high pressure. I have said this before but this winter has been odd for me from a forecasting perspective as the output at times has been strange.

History tells me that an E,ly is more than plausible from the set up at +144 onwards but history also tells me how it can go pearshaped.

Who knows, all bizarre. Plus point for this time of year is `cold` and dry. To pick up on your last comment, at a push today`s NAO output takes a VERY slight dip towards neutral...

[That ECM]

5 minutes ago, TEITS said:

Indeed and it's incredible to see such a change from a stormy period to high pressure. I have said this before but this winter has been odd for me from a forecasting perspective as the output at times has been strange.

History tells me that an E,ly is more than plausible from the set up at +144 onwards but history also tells me how it can go pearshaped.

Completely agree and sometimes it better to wait and see than guess.  Coldies have hope, professionals will go with normal until a strong signal for different. 

[feb1991blizzard]

1 minute ago, TEITS said:

Indeed and it's incredible to see such a change from a stormy period to high pressure. I have said this before but this winter has been odd for me from a forecasting perspective as the output at times has been strange.

History tells me that an E,ly is more than plausible from the set up at +144 onwards but history also tells me how it can go pearshaped.

Yes, i  wonder if we could pull off the reverse of what normally happens, every year or nearly every year since i have been viewing the runs every day, at some point there has been a cold uppers E'ly progged and bust (even 13-14 i distinctly remember the ECM late jan, albeit only for a couple of runs), i must admit if this one came off, i think i would be the most staggered i have been at a period of model watching - hope it can though.

[Met4Cast]

1 hour ago, Bricriu said:

A lot of pros will be scratching their heads  if it does come off - it will be like that WTF moment with Ian(I forget his surname) several years ago. 

Why? It’s been fairly well flagged for a while now if you pay attention to the teleconnections, MJO, AAM etc, they’ve been broadly pointing to a Scandi high mid Feb for a couple of weeks. 

What conditions any high brings to the UK in terms of cold etc though is very much open to doubt. 

[goosey007]

57 minutes ago, bluearmy said:

Brown 

Ian Brown ….. Now, that's a name I've not heard in a long time…… A long time.

[damianslaw]

Mmm surprised to see both ECM and GFS showing ridge/high pressure building through the UK fending off what was expected to be a resurgent atlantic - against an angry PV, but perhaps we shouldn't be, the last 2 years has seen a very ineffective atlantic coming unstuck against heights near or over the UK.

GFS again shows an easterly draw - and a long drawn cold one, notable it keeps doing this..

Edited January 26, 2023 by damianslaw