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Model Output Discussion - Into February

damianslaw

By damianslaw
in Forecast Model Discussion

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Paul
Message added by Paul,

Please keep your posts to discussing the model output in this thread, and for more general winter weather chat please use the winter chat, moans and ramps thread.

The model highlights thread is also available for a more concise view of the model discussions. 

Be kind -- Stay on topic -- Share your knowledge -- Be polite -- Be honest -- Be tolerant -- Be family-friendly

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Ali1977 Maestro

Ali1977

Posted
  • Location: North East Cotswolds, 232m, 761feet ASL
  • Location: North East Cotswolds, 232m, 761feet ASL
Posted
Just now, Tidal Wave said:

Not really, the mean has a south-westerly across the north!

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Compare it to the last run, the ENS are defo better as is the control. The high is slightly further north assisting the undercut (easterly) 

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MATTWOLVES 3
MATTWOLVES 3

Hey my wonderfull people we are now seeing the signs of what's going on high above.. If things go to plan we could well be seeing some High pressure Blocking developing towars Northern parts before mu

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MATTWOLVES 3

Hey folks I'm still here I've seen the Doctor and been given a change of meds for Depression....I feel a tad better but it will probably be several weeks before I get back to my old self. Just a quick

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I'd just like to publicly thank this forum and especially this thread over the last few months. I don't often talk about my mental state much on here but it's been really low up until the last few day

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Empire Of Snow Community Regular

Empire Of Snow

Posted
  • Location: Harrogate, Pannal Ash, 179m
  • Location: Harrogate, Pannal Ash, 179m
Posted
4 minutes ago, Scandinavian High. said:

Sm on twitter other models to come on  bored in morning if they do this place will be very lively.

Yes the other models are definitely feeling bored watching the GFS show. They might come on board in the morning to join the fun. 😉

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Johnp Accomplished

Johnp

Posted
  • Location: North East Hampshire
  • Location: North East Hampshire
Posted
Just now, Mucka said:

I'm not sure about that but the mean at 120h is probably marginally better than the 12, so certainly no backing down.

gensnh-31-1-120.png

It’s weird, I refreshed and now they’re not so good. Think I was looking at a cached version!

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Met4Cast Maestro

Met4Cast

Posted
  • Location: Gillingham, Kent
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, Thunderstorms,
  • Location: Gillingham, Kent
Posted
4 minutes ago, Johnp said:

Ensembles up to 108 rock solid on the easterly for what it’s worth. 

“Rock solid” might be a stretch, if anything the mean has less of an easterly flow into the UK vs the 12z run further isolating the GFS det. 
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January Snowstorm Accomplished

January Snowstorm

Posted
  • Location: Cork City(Southern Ireland)
  • Location: Cork City(Southern Ireland)
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Posted

Extraordinary stuff really by the gfs! History tells us 2 important things:

- Easterly's more than any other weather type have been known to appear suddenly. We have been witness to this over the years. It's possible that the other models are lagging behind.

- Rarely does a model stick to its guns so resolutely and be entirely wrong at 72hrs. We simply cannot rule out the gfs option and clearly the Met think so too.

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Johnp Accomplished

Johnp

Posted
  • Location: North East Hampshire
  • Location: North East Hampshire
Posted
Just now, Met4Cast said:

“Rock solid” might be a stretch, if anything the mean has less of an easterly flow into the UK vs the 12z run further isolating the GFS det. 
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See my update.  

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seabreeze86 Accomplished

seabreeze86

Posted
  • Location: redcar,cleveland
  • Weather Preferences: Winter cold,snow and frost. Summer hot and thundery
  • Location: redcar,cleveland
Posted

GEFS mean marginally better than the 12z at 120hrs Could contain: Plot, Chart, Nature, Outdoors

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nick sussex Maestro

nick sussex

Posted
  • Location: Eastbourne and Larnaca,Cyprus .
  • Location: Eastbourne and Larnaca,Cyprus .
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Posted
2 minutes ago, alexisj9 said:

From what you just said do you think the GFS will wobble, and what time are the 18z ECM and where, got to have a butchers.

The ECM 18 hrs run to T90 hrs comes out around 12.45 and the control run about an hour later . As for the GFS I’m suing it for mental cruelty to coldies ! 

I of course would love to see it beat the other outputs but the odds are really stacked against it.

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Ali1977 Maestro

Ali1977

Posted
  • Location: North East Cotswolds, 232m, 761feet ASL
  • Location: North East Cotswolds, 232m, 761feet ASL
Posted (edited)
4 minutes ago, Met4Cast said:

“Rock solid” might be a stretch, if anything the mean has less of an easterly flow into the UK vs the 12z run further isolating the GFS det. 
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🤷🏼‍♂️ The ENS and control are definitely an improvement on the 12z, clearly seen on the control with -8c uppers into the SE earlier than the Op

 

Much improved mean at T132

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Edited by Ali1977
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Ali1977 Maestro

Ali1977

Posted
  • Location: North East Cotswolds, 232m, 761feet ASL
  • Location: North East Cotswolds, 232m, 761feet ASL
Posted
Just now, Daniel* said:

The ridge is further north on GEFS mean it is clearly an improvement expect to see some good ones in there.

Glad you agree, the control is gonna be great 👌

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seabreeze86 Accomplished

seabreeze86

Posted
  • Location: redcar,cleveland
  • Weather Preferences: Winter cold,snow and frost. Summer hot and thundery
  • Location: redcar,cleveland
Posted
Just now, Daniel* said:

The ridge is further north on GEFS mean it is clearly an improvement expect to see some good ones in there.

Yep there’s going to be some corkers in there 

You can see what very small differences in orientation of the low in mainland Europe do to the flow 

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Ali1977 Maestro

Ali1977

Posted
  • Location: North East Cotswolds, 232m, 761feet ASL
  • Location: North East Cotswolds, 232m, 761feet ASL
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Posted (edited)

BIG ENS UPGRADE - prob 65-75 percent delivering a cold easterly. 🥶🥶🥶

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Edited by Ali1977
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MP-R Maestro

MP-R

Posted
  • Location: Cleeve, North Somerset
  • Weather Preferences: Continental winters & summers.
  • Location: Cleeve, North Somerset
Posted
15 minutes ago, Scandinavian High. said:

Sm on twitter other models to come on  board in morning if they do this place will be very lively.

What’s Sm? Have I missed something? 🤔

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blizzard81 Maestro

blizzard81

Posted
  • Location: Heckmondwike, West Yorkshire
  • Location: Heckmondwike, West Yorkshire
Posted
Just now, Ali1977 said:

BIG ENS UPGRADE - prob 65-75 percent delivering a cold easterly. 🥶🥶🥶

And that's within 6 days I guess. 

 

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January Snowstorm Accomplished

January Snowstorm

Posted
  • Location: Cork City(Southern Ireland)
  • Location: Cork City(Southern Ireland)
Posted
7 minutes ago, Ali1977 said:

BIG ENS UPGRADE - prob 65-75 percent delivering a cold easterly. 🥶🥶🥶

Great!

Hard to work out what's going on tbh. It simply can't be ruled out as an option

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seabreeze86 Accomplished

seabreeze86

Posted
  • Location: redcar,cleveland
  • Weather Preferences: Winter cold,snow and frost. Summer hot and thundery
  • Location: redcar,cleveland
Posted
Just now, Ali1977 said:

BIG ENS UPGRADE - prob 65-75 percent delivering a cold easterly. 🥶🥶🥶

You could see from early on it was a improvement on the 12z 

If the GFS is wrong and odds on it is to be honest it’s going to be wrong in style 

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Mucka Maestro

Mucka

Posted
  • Location: Manchester
  • Weather Preferences: Sunny and warm in the Summer, cold and snowy in the winter, simples!
  • Location: Manchester
Posted (edited)

If the ECM 18z shifts significantly toward GFS 18z then the MetO are going to need more caveats than "save cat" has anagrams in their next forecast. 

Edited by Mucka
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Don Maestro

Don

Posted
  • Location: Longden, Shropshire
  • Location: Longden, Shropshire
Posted (edited)
3 minutes ago, seabreeze86 said:

You could see from early on it was a improvement on the 12z 

If the GFS is wrong and odds on it is to be honest it’s going to be wrong in style 

Will be rather amusing if the GFS does a u turn in the morning, while all other models go full on with the easterly!!

Edited by Don
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