Model Output Discussion - Into February

[bluearmy]

4 minutes ago, jamesthemonkeh said:

I was under the impression that we are expecting the MJO to be favourable for cold around the end of February, so anything appearing in the models by then may be more likely to be related to the MJO, than the SSW?

On the ens mean - yes. with the ssw occurring around the 15th, the general forward look is 10/14 days for the first downwelling wave to make it to the trop.  But with a disconnected trop/strat that could be up to four weeks or the odd case, not at all. 

but individual members or ops may produce a quick downwell and those charts could feasibly show from around the 20th onwards 

[Ali1977]

4 minutes ago, Lukesluckybunch said:

Well what happened to this winter...quite a prolonged spell of very cold weather at the beginning of December followed by what...mainly changeable conditions with the odd cold shot..some particularly cold nights thrown in the mix I suppose.but nothing too unusual..looking at the models next two weeks seems a right off in terms of cold,are we saying goodbye to winter already with the main core of it gone and with March around the corner!?

We just need some luck, if everything falls right March could well be colder than the whole of winter. Let’s hope things fall right quickly though, and not by mid March 

[jmp223]

Am I right in saying that two out of every three SSWs bring cold weather/blocking to the UK?

[Ali1977]

23 minutes ago, jmp223 said:

Am I right in saying that two out of every three SSWs bring cold weather/blocking to the UK?

That’s what they say, but I guess you could still have 4 in a row that don’t!! 
 

There’s a chance the reversal is long term , and if so the chances of prolonged colder spells throughout March and April will surely be very high, even if it doesn’t fall right initially. You can’t discount historical type weather somewhere in the NH at our latitude

Edited February 11, 2023 by Ali1977

[Cymro]

I must say the prospect of a severely cold March, as a vegetable grower, fills me with absolute dread! I'm hoping we see impacts from MJO potential reversals with SSW sooner rather than later so it can be done with before mid March! 

[jamesthemonkeh]

44 minutes ago, Climate Man said:

You are hoping the two come together and 2 plus 2 equals 5. However, it is incredibly difficult to define the individual impacts. 

Well I'm actually hoping for a warm March, but hey!

Agreed that favourable for cold MJO and favourable for cold SSW does not mean cold...but my point was actually regarding people expecting cold solutions showing up in the models towards the end of February being a product of the SSW, when I think it more likely a product of the MJO?

[Evening thunder]

3 hours ago, Weather-history said:

That would be a hell of a northerly GFS P16

Do the GFS ensembles have an issue with under-estimating ocean modification? I've never seen a northerly that cold in the archives but have seen a few examples in the ensembles. Also, I don't know of any archive chart examples a westerly with 850hpa temps approaching -15C, yet we had an ensemble member the other day showing -16C 850's on a westerly. Even the often cited cold zonality of January 1984 didn't quite manage to pull in the -10C 850hpa isotherm from the west.

I've noticed over the last couple of years that there have been various ensemble charts showing westerlies/northerlies with 850hpa temps colder than any actual examples I know of.

Although I would love to see a NNW wind with -15C - -20C 850's coming down the Irish Sea with the streamer of intense snow showers it would create hitting the SW.. just not that week because it's the first week since 2020 I've been abroad (which increases the chances of it happening!)

Edited February 11, 2023 by Evening thunder

[bluearmy]

1 minute ago, Evening thunder said:

Do the GFS ensembles have an issue with under-estimating ocean modification? I've never seen a northerly that cold in the archives but have seen a few examples in the ensembles. Also, I don't know of any archive chart examples a westerly with 850hpa temps approaching -15C, yet we had an ensemble member the other day showing -16C 850's on a westerly. Even the often cited cold zonality of January 1984 didn't quite manage to pull in the -10C 850hpa isotherm from the west.

I've noticed over the last couple of years that there have been various ensemble charts showing westerlies/northerlies with 850hpa temps colder than any actual examples I know of.

Tbh, I wouldn’t pay much attention to any individual gefs member. it happens in here when there is nothing much to look at on ops or ens means……

the gefs are, by definition, an ensemble tool to be used as part of a mean or a notable cluster. They were never designed to be looked at on their own. 

[Ruzzi]

1 hour ago, Daydream Boy said:

Ummmm ok. Keep your knickers on! It was just a comment. I wasn't suggesting anyone was saying anything. I was just echoing what others have been saying in regards to a SSW. 

Now I've realised why I don't comment on here ever! Especially if I'm gonna get my head bitten off! 

Not the warm welcome I was hoping for.

I will now go back into the background as before and read and watch from afar. 

Moderators, please forgive the off topic comment. 

Back to model discussion

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

It absolutely wasn't intended to bite your head off  

It's part of the discussion, if you don't want replies or comments to follow on from what you say then it really isn't worth commenting, especially if you don't want some to disagree, however I rarely post in here also so please don't leave on my account either. 

The only reason I commented was because there had been some really good discussion regarding the upcoming SSW and potential effects etc and really in depth detailed meaningful stuff, and then your comment appeared stating that a SSW doesn't guarantee cold so let's have the spring. It just read as a bit of a kick in the teeth in the middle of the good discussions.

I was just putting my point across but no intention to bite your head off. 

I think the majority are excited to see what this SSW brings, and like someone else said, it happens maybe around 6 times every 10 years so naturally people's interest is peaked and we're keen to see how it pans out. 

If it goes pear shaped and we get hit with mild and early spring weather, then by all means I hope you enjoy it. 

[Ali1977]

Day 9, is the Op going for it here

 

I think it is, cold run incoming, well a cold day 11/12 at least 

Edited February 11, 2023 by Ali1977

[andymusic]

Northerly on the gfs 6z - around 22nd Feb seems to be coming up again and again

[andymusic]

18 minutes ago, Cymro said:

I must say the prospect of a severely cold March, as a vegetable grower, fills me with absolute dread! I'm hoping we see impacts from MJO potential reversals with SSW sooner rather than later so it can be done with before mid March! 

The reversal will come when it wants Cymro I'm afraid and if it's a biggie then could last a good couple of weeks eh!

[Tills]

On 10/02/2023 at 09:01, Ruzzi said:

I don't think anyone has said at any point that a SSW guarantees cold weather ...

We're here to enjoy the ride of seeing how it plays, a SSW doesn't guarantee cold and snow, but it gives us a ticket to the raffle and that's where the thrill of the chase comes in. 

If you want spring and warmth, maybe best not to hang your hat on it for at least another few weeks until the effects of the SSW are laid out a bit clearer. 

This is what I am not getting about this thread. I have come on here to see what is happening in the model outputs.

Instead most of the posts seem to be by those wanting bitter cold about an atmospheric event that may or may not happen and which may or may not have a cold impact in the UK in 2 to 4 weeks time. Very little about the actual model outputs from which I want to learn.

Shouldn't there be a separate thread where people without bias or particular weather preferences can just discuss the actual model outputs instead of what they are wishing to see?

Nothing that I have seen in the outputs overnight suggests anything other than a mostly stagnant high pressure south of Britain maintaining a mild flow especially in the north? Am I wrong?

Edited February 11, 2023 by Tills

[Guest]

1 minute ago, Tills said:

This is what I am not getting about this thread. I have come on here to see what is happening in the model outputs.

Instead most of the posts seem to be by those wanting bitter cold about an atmospheric event that may or may not happen and which may or may not have a cold impact in the UK in 2 to 4 weeks time. Very little about the actual model outputs from which I want to learn.

Shouldn't there be a separate thread where people without bias or particular weather preferences can just discuss the actual model outputs instead of what they are wishing to see?

Nothing that I have seen in the outputs overnight suggests anything other than a mostly stagnant high pressure south of Britain maintaining a mild flow especially in the north? Am I wrong?

No, you're not wrong at all! Unfortunately unless it's bitter cold and snow in winter or baking heat in summer, most aren't interested in the normal day-to-day stuff.  Admittedly the outlook is pretty mundane for the next ten days which is why there is so much attention being placed on the SSW by the majority.  Hopefully this SSW event will be one that doesn't bring a cold outbreak, but I fear there will be some impact although noone knows for sure.  In the meantime, it's looking dry and mild this week for many as you rightfully suggest which will do nicely.

[topo]

That looks like a record breaking Polar Vortex

[BLAST FROM THE PAST]

38 minutes ago, Cymro said:

I must say the prospect of a severely cold March, as a vegetable grower, fills me with absolute dread! I'm hoping we see impacts from MJO potential reversals with SSW sooner rather than later so it can be done with before mid March! 

On a personal note I actually think if we are to get repercussions from this SSW (and I strongly think we will)  it will be March, late late Feb at earliest.  

 

BFTP

[andymusic]

some nice pm shots from the north west in FI on this run could give Wales a little of the white stuff

[Chesil View]

7 minutes ago, Tills said:

This is what I am not getting about this thread. I have come on here to see what is happening in the model outputs.

Instead most of the posts seem to be by those wanting bitter cold about an atmospheric event that may or may not happen and which may or may not have a cold impact in the UK in 2 to 4 weeks time. Very little about the actual model outputs from which I want to learn.

Shouldn't there be a separate thread where people without bias or particular weather preferences can just discuss the actual model outputs instead of what they are wishing to see?

Nothing that I have seen in the outputs overnight suggests anything other than a mostly stagnant high pressure south of Britain maintaining a mild flow especially in the north? Am I wrong?

No you're  not wrong Tills. 

But your own words describe the current forecast model situation as stagnant. Which is why people are talking about how the expected ssw might affect the model output going forward. This is fine and acceptable for a model output discussion forum.

[mushymanrob]

23 minutes ago, Tills said:

This is what I am not getting about this thread. I have come on here to see what is happening in the model outputs.

Instead most of the posts seem to be by those wanting bitter cold about an atmospheric event that may or may not happen and which may or may not have a cold impact in the UK in 2 to 4 weeks time. Very little about the actual model outputs from which I want to learn.

Shouldn't there be a separate thread where people without bias or particular weather preferences can just discuss the actual model outputs instead of what they are wishing to see?

Nothing that I have seen in the outputs overnight suggests anything other than a mostly stagnant high pressure south of Britain maintaining a mild flow especially in the north? Am I wrong?

This was explained by Blessed Weather yesterday, or the day before...

The point is, this coming SSW is set to be one of the most interesting events in recent years. Watching how it develops and its possible/probable impact on the weather systems in the Troposphere is of great interest and is significant in understanding the relationship between a SSW and our weather patterns. Its all interlinked, and we are watching how it evolves with great interest...

No i dont call the coming weather "staganant", as its set to become more unsettled and breezier by next  weekend. As i see it, its pretty much average/normal February fayre albeit on the milder and drier side of average - especially in the South.

[Lukesluckybunch]

1 hour ago, Ali1977 said:

We just need some luck, if everything falls right March could well be colder than the whole of winter. Let’s hope things fall right quickly though, and not by mid March 

Not really liking the prediction of cold in March as the potential for the coldest weather would have passed at that stage,although we have and can still get cold and snow in march

[Nick F]

25 minutes ago, topo said:

That looks like a record breaking Polar Vortex

IMO going to take a while to break down the trop polar vortex to our NW, looks like it's going strong even into late Feb, but a look at GFS cross section of the u-wind through the atmosphere suggests that although the reversal looks sustained, it's in no rush to propagate down to the troposphere.

But hopefully we can get some help from the lag of the MJO speeding through to the western Pacific phases 7-8 by mid-Feb, could see some upper flow amplification over N Atlantic / Europe by 25-28th Feb being picked up by the NWP.

Edited February 11, 2023 by Nick F

[alexisj9]

27 minutes ago, Tills said:

This is what I am not getting about this thread. I have come on here to see what is happening in the model outputs.

Instead most of the posts seem to be by those wanting bitter cold about an atmospheric event that may or may not happen and which may or may not have a cold impact in the UK in 2 to 4 weeks time. Very little about the actual model outputs from which I want to learn.

Shouldn't there be a separate thread where people without bias or particular weather preferences can just discuss the actual model outputs instead of what they are wishing to see?

Nothing that I have seen in the outputs overnight suggests anything other than a mostly stagnant high pressure south of Britain maintaining a mild flow especially in the north? Am I wrong?

Nope, not wrong at all, high pressure is set in the reliable, looks like in the mid term lows might start to effect us again, but re GFS northerly, I'll want to see that much closer, or repeated in other models before I take notice. That will not be related to the SSW just yet, but might be why GFS is showing it, to soon, trying to make an immediate change while the reversal is in progress 

[MJB]

SSW is part of the model output discussion because that is where it belongs ....................surely. The warming up above is currently in every run  so it's only right it's being discussed as to what the outcome can be ...........................no different to discussing charts at 240 - 264 and onwards ................as we all know that is in the far reaches of FI and slim chances of coming to fruition but discussed nonetheless . 

 

[MJB]

5 minutes ago, Lukesluckybunch said:

Not really liking the prediction of cold in March as the potential for the coldest weather would have passed at that stage,although we have and can still get cold and snow in march

Which can be much better than winter months with deep snow and cold ............not to be sniffed at 

[Vikos]

Let it happen then see results. It’s still to early to watch for significant changes in the OPs

From the ec site…