The Electric Car - saving the climate or just polluting in other ways?

[Scuba steve]

Also in this crazy I’ll thought out dash for net zero you will require apps for everything,car pools ,logging your carbon credits and no doubt what you buy ,the powers that be ache for control in an ever increasing miserable existence 

[Methuselah]

10 minutes ago, Scuba steve said:

Also in this crazy I’ll thought out dash for net zero you will require apps for everything,car pools ,logging your carbon credits and no doubt what you buy ,the powers that be ache for control in an ever increasing miserable existence 

We'll need apps for everything anyway, Steve. Coming soon: The Andrex Bum-wiping App! 

[Scuba steve]

8 minutes ago, Methuselah said:

We'll need apps for everything anyway, Steve. Coming soon: The Andrex Bum-wiping App! 

Wondering why my phone smelled iffy

[WYorksWeather]

1 hour ago, Midlands Ice Age said:

Wow..

Considering the above post is  supposed to be painting a rosy  'pink' picture of the situation, it has convinced me even more that an EV is not an option for a good while yet.

Also points skimmed over or ignored as not an argument..

1) in the more rural areas (where a lot of people will need to recharge) on medium journeys,   there is still the extra power consumption being used, that will mean that the 'power' network will need to be improved.  At the moment there is a major new EV power garage offline due to the inadequacy of the power supply. I suspect there may be others. 

2) Around 50% of the cars owned today do not have access to street or outside chargers, and yet they will need them, if converted to EV's.

3) ICE  cars tend not to burst into flames when being refuelled or stationary. Recent cases highlighted in the news media appear to be  in stationary vehicles. They have proved difficult to extinguish. There have been 2 major incidents recently, ( one with the car container ship, the other with the car park which burnt down that destroyed tens of hundreds of cars). I do not recall seeing any reports of similar incidents caused by ICE cars.

4) I have just bought a new petrol car and the insurance premiums have gone up between 50 and 100% this year. I enquired about similar insurance for hybrid and also for pure electric vehicles of a similar size, and they were between 250 and 1000% higher. This assumes that I can afford to pay 100% more in the first place. The insurance companies are not mugs. They are beginning to understand the true costs of these vehicles. 

Someone above was correct who stated that in future we must be expecting to  change our lifestyles. Car journeys will become a vastly reduced possibility for the general population..

I had better stop as I am beginning to worry about what my grandchildren will have as a lifestyle in 50 years time!. 

MIA

First off - my post might have given the wrong impression. My point is that the article exaggerated the issues, not that there aren't any. When you take those groups I mentioned, as you say 50% of people can't charge at home, so at this stage I wouldn't recommend an EV for them unless the local charging network is very good - that covers your point no.2. Full disclosure - I don't drive an EV either - I drive a small petrol car. 

On your other points:

1. On power consumption - most EV charging is done at night, and if you have variable price charging that encourages people to charge overnight. So the impact on the grid should be relatively minimal if properly managed. Some additional infrastructure will no doubt be needed, though.

3. I tried my best to find some stats on the number of fires when cars are stationary, but I wasn't able to find any. I did find other anecdotal articles though that show that fires in garages etc. happen for both ICE and electric cars. If anyone can find any hard data on this I'm open to changing my view.

4. As for insurance - this does seem to be a bit of a problem. I didn't mention it since the article didn't (unless it missed it in passing). I did find this quote from an article which gives the overall averages (link):

Quote

It comes as all motorists face soaring insurance costs, with prices said to be at an all-time high. A recent cost of living bulletin from the Office for National Statistics revealed that the price of car insurance – which for many Britons is one of their biggest household bills – is up by 52.9% in the last 12 months.

However, this average masks bigger increases for electric car owners, according to Confused.com. Its figures, derived from quotes, show that insurance premiums for electric vehicles are 72% – or £402 – higher than this time last year, at a typical £959. Meanwhile, for petrol and diesel car drivers, the increase is 29%, or £192, taking the figure to £848.

So looks like a much larger increase for electric car owners. I guess we'll see what happens to those trends in the years ahead.

To once again re-iterate my position:

• To people who can charge at home, and can afford the initial outlay, an EV probably represents good value for money
• If you don't meet those criteria, you need to wait for the cost to come down, and/or for the charging network to develop
• Some investment will have to be made in infrastructure like pylons and so on to give better grid connections, and smart charging

I'm trying to be neutral here, and look at what can be supported with the data. I'm not saying everyone should rush out and buy an EV, but I don't think it's fair to be as negative about them as many people on this thread are being.

I would also note the example of Norway - there over 80% of new cars sold are all electric, and more than 20% of all cars on the road. That shows that the problems are not insurmountable. Is the infrastructure in the UK up to standard yet - no. But if Norway can get there, the rest of the West can.

[Scuba steve]

26 minutes ago, WYorksWeather said:

First off - my post might have given the wrong impression. My point is that the article exaggerated the issues, not that there aren't any. When you take those groups I mentioned, as you say 50% of people can't charge at home, so at this stage I wouldn't recommend an EV for them unless the local charging network is very good - that covers your point no.2. Full disclosure - I don't drive an EV either - I drive a small petrol car. 

On your other points:

1. On power consumption - most EV charging is done at night, and if you have variable price charging that encourages people to charge overnight. So the impact on the grid should be relatively minimal if properly managed. Some additional infrastructure will no doubt be needed, though.

3. I tried my best to find some stats on the number of fires when cars are stationary, but I wasn't able to find any. I did find other anecdotal articles though that show that fires in garages etc. happen for both ICE and electric cars. If anyone can find any hard data on this I'm open to changing my view.

4. As for insurance - this does seem to be a bit of a problem. I didn't mention it since the article didn't (unless it missed it in passing). I did find this quote from an article which gives the overall averages (link

So looks like a much larger increase for electric car owners. I guess we'll see what happens to those trends in the years ahead.

To once again re-iterate my position:

• To people who can charge at home, and can afford the initial outlay, an EV probably represents good value for money
• If you don't meet those criteria, you need to wait for the cost to come down, and/or for the charging network to develop
• Some investment will have to be made in infrastructure like pylons and so on to give better grid connections, and smart charging

I'm trying to be neutral here, and look at what can be supported with the data. I'm not saying everyone should rush out and buy an EV, but I don't think it's fair to be as negative about them as many people on this thread are being.

I would also note the example of Norway - there over 80% of new cars sold are all electric, and more than 20% of all cars on the road. That shows that the problems are not insurmountable. Is the infrastructure in the UK up to standard yet - no. But if Norway can get there, the rest of the West can.

Norway is an outlier it has a wealthy population and a 1,500 billion wealth fund ironically from oil

[Methuselah]

12 minutes ago, Scuba steve said:

Norway is an outlier it has a wealthy population and a 1,500 billion wealth fund ironically from oil

But a situation we could ourselves be in, had we not wasted all our oil revenues on successive governments' ideological squandering, meddling and whatever. 

[Bristawl Si]

35 minutes ago, WYorksWeather said:

First off - my post might have given the wrong impression. My point is that the article exaggerated the issues, not that there aren't any. When you take those groups I mentioned, as you say 50% of people can't charge at home, so at this stage I wouldn't recommend an EV for them unless the local charging network is very good - that covers your point no.2. Full disclosure - I don't drive an EV either - I drive a small petrol car. 

On your other points:

1. On power consumption - most EV charging is done at night, and if you have variable price charging that encourages people to charge overnight. So the impact on the grid should be relatively minimal if properly managed. Some additional infrastructure will no doubt be needed, though.

3. I tried my best to find some stats on the number of fires when cars are stationary, but I wasn't able to find any. I did find other anecdotal articles though that show that fires in garages etc. happen for both ICE and electric cars. If anyone can find any hard data on this I'm open to changing my view.

4. As for insurance - this does seem to be a bit of a problem. I didn't mention it since the article didn't (unless it missed it in passing). I did find this quote from an article which gives the overall averages (link):

So looks like a much larger increase for electric car owners. I guess we'll see what happens to those trends in the years ahead.

To once again re-iterate my position:

• To people who can charge at home, and can afford the initial outlay, an EV probably represents good value for money
• If you don't meet those criteria, you need to wait for the cost to come down, and/or for the charging network to develop
• Some investment will have to be made in infrastructure like pylons and so on to give better grid connections, and smart charging

I'm trying to be neutral here, and look at what can be supported with the data. I'm not saying everyone should rush out and buy an EV, but I don't think it's fair to be as negative about them as many people on this thread are being.

I would also note the example of Norway - there over 80% of new cars sold are all electric, and more than 20% of all cars on the road. That shows that the problems are not insurmountable. Is the infrastructure in the UK up to standard yet - no. But if Norway can get there, the rest of the West can.

Cost remains the biggest barrier imho.

Secondary, is reliability re charging. Who wants to go on a 150 mile trip, only to be held up on a motorway for 30mins because of an issue and then have to worry about re-charging, just in case?

Thirdly, there is no way that peeps will want to 'take a chance' on a 2nd-hand EV car, not knowing when a battery may need to be replaced, at a cost of, say, c£3000 to £10,000??

Now, the next generation may be more reliable and cheaper. They'll have to be. 

Add in infrastructure, of course i.e. charging points. What car sales garages/showrooms forget to tell you - not sure they actually forget - is that your residence may already NOT be suitable for charging an EV - "but dont worry we'll sort it"

**Until, of course, there are issues with how electrical cables were laid in your street, and it turns out that your neighbour has to agree to changes to your shared electrics that enable an EV to be charged.**

** This happened to our neighbours, opposite, last year.

[WYorksWeather]

1 hour ago, Scuba steve said:

Norway is an outlier it has a wealthy population and a 1,500 billion wealth fund ironically from oil

They also don't just make announcements without a plan to implement them as well I think. Quality of governance puts ours to shame IMO.

[Scuba steve]

5 minutes ago, WYorksWeather said:

They also don't just make announcements without a plan to implement them as well I think. Quality of governance puts ours to shame IMO.

Also no vat  on purchase and very generous ev ownership perks

[WYorksWeather]

1 minute ago, Scuba steve said:

Also no vat  on purchase and very generous ev ownership perks

Sure, not disputing that. But the point is it shows it can be done - they're at over 20% of EVs on the road, and 80% of new sales. If it was as bad as you're saying, I would expect to see a huge rush to buy imported cars from elsewhere, a crash in domestic new car sales as people hang on to their second hand ICEs, huge numbers of vehicle fires, massive queues for charging everywhere. But I've not seen any articles suggesting such, which shows that it's possible to transition to EVs.

Do I necessarily believe the  government will make a good job of it in this country? Perhaps not. But I won't say any more as I don't want to turn this into a political debate. But I don't think it's a technology problem as much as it's an implementation problem.

[Bristawl Si]

12 minutes ago, WYorksWeather said:

They also don't just make announcements without a plan to implement them as well I think. Quality of governance puts ours to shame IMO.

Apples and pears though, when comparing the 2 countries.

Population 5.5m v c70m (UK)

Population density 15 per sq km v 280 per sq km (UK)

Overall tax rate is much higher then UK

Norweigians pay an 'extra' tax for their healthcare

Norway has proven oil reserves equivalent to 69.0 times its annual consumption

UK has oil reserves equiv to just 4.8 times its annual consumption

It's just much easier for Norway to implement and build infrastructure, compared to UK.

The two countries are just so different.

 

[WYorksWeather]

1 hour ago, Bristle Si said:

Cost remains the biggest barrier imho.

Secondary, is reliability re charging. Who wants to go on a 150 mile trip, only to be held up on a motorway for 30mins because of an issue and then have to worry about re-charging, just in case?

Thirdly, there is no way that peeps will want to 'take a chance' on a 2nd-hand EV car, not knowing when a battery may need to be replaced, at a cost of, say, c£3000 to £10,000??

Now, the next generation may be more reliable and cheaper. They'll have to be. 

Add in infrastructure, of course i.e. charging points. What car sales garages/showrooms forget to tell you - not sure they actually forget - is that your residence may already NOT be suitable for charging an EV - "but dont worry we'll sort it"

**Until, of course, there are issues with how electrical cables were laid in your street, and it turns out that your neighbour has to agree to changes to your shared electrics that enable an EV to be charged.**

** This happened to our neighbours, opposite, last year.

In terms of charging reliability - difficult to comment without a specific scenario. Being held up on a motorway doesn't make much difference. An average EV uses 1kWh to idle, which is 3-4 miles of driving range. Even if it were 10 miles of range per hour to account for heating use in cold conditions, that's not enough to matter in most reasonable scenarios, and in any case EV charging is fastest between something like 10-90% or 20-80%, so I really struggle to see how you'd run out of charge except in a very contrived situation where you'd probably also run out in an ICE. My understanding is also that they are very good at warning people - alerts, directions to a charging station, and you can also slow down a lot to conserve power in an emergency, as EVs have a much lower optimal fuel economy speed of around 20-30mph vs. 50mph for ICE.

On second-hand - again I've looked into this, and there are battery condition indicators. Generally the whole battery doesn't fail all at once - it's a case of gradually reducing range. And even then, a formerly 250 mile EV that has degraded a lot to 100 or 150 could still be useful for some people who don't really do long trips - there's plenty of people who don't. And for really old cars, (like e.g. a 2011 or 2012 Nissan Leaf), a lot of them go for battery lease for peace of mind.

Charging is the big one - I've already conceded that if you can't easily charge at home then unless you have a great local charging network that you're happy with (say your local supermarket, or your workplace, has good charging) then it's probably not worth it.

[Bristawl Si]

1 minute ago, WYorksWeather said:

In terms of charging reliability - difficult to comment without a specific scenario. Being held up on a motorway doesn't make much difference. An average EV uses 1kWh to idle, which is 3-4 miles of driving range. Even if it were 10 miles of range per hour to account for heating use in cold conditions, that's not enough to matter in most reasonable scenarios, and in any case EV charging is fastest between something like 10-90% or 20-80%, so I really struggle to see how you'd run out of charge except in a very contrived situation where you'd probably also run out in an ICE. My understanding is also that they are very good at warning people - alerts, directions to a charging station, and you can also slow down a lot to conserve power in an emergency, as EVs have a much lower optimal fuel economy speed of around 20-30mph vs. 50mph for ICE.

On second-hand - again I've looked into this, and there are battery condition indicators. Generally the whole battery doesn't fail all at once - it's a case of gradually reducing range. And even then, a formerly 250 mile EV that has degraded a lot to 100 or 150 could still be useful for some people who don't really do long trips - there's plenty of people who don't. And for really old cars, (like e.g. a 2011 or 2012 Nissan Leaf), a lot of them go for battery lease for peace of mind.

Charging is the big one - I've already conceded that if you can't easily charge at home then unless you have a great local charging network that you're happy with (say your local supermarket, or your workplace, has good charging) then it's probably not worth it.

It matters if you need charge and you pull in to the services only to find 10 other peeps waiting for a free charger.

A long way to go before the UK will be in a pos to (fully) embrace EVs.

Too many Qs for many. And the cost issue is massive; not everyone can rely on a co. fleet car option.

[WYorksWeather]

2 minutes ago, Bristle Si said:

Apples and pears though, when comparing the 2 countries.

Population 5.5m v c70m (UK)

Population density 15 per sq km v 280 per sq km (UK)

Overall tax rate is much higher then UK

Norweigians pay an 'extra' tax for their healthcare

Norway has proven oil reserves equivalent to 69.0 times its annual consumption

UK has oil reserves equiv to just 4.8 times its annual consumption

It's just much easier for Norway to implement and build infrastructure, compared to UK.

The two countries are just so different.

 

Oh yeah it's not a one-to-one comparison. I don't really see why population is an issue, or population density. In fact if anything that would indicate it is harder for Norway, as they have a lot of remote areas in the north of the country that need charging infrastructure in order for it to work. They also have a cold climate which hammers range in winter.

I accept the point on tax rates, oil reserves, and infrastructure/planning policy. Of course whether we should be more like Norway on those issues is more of a political question.

[Methuselah]

2 minutes ago, Bristle Si said:

It matters if you need charge and you pull in to the services only to find 10 other peeps waiting for a free charger.

A long way to go before the UK will be in a pos to (fully) embrace EVs.

Too many Qs for many. And the cost issue is massive; not everyone can rely on a co. fleet car option.

All of which would be irrelevant, were HMG to pull its bloody finger out and provide the necessary infrastructure. 

[matty40s]

11 minutes ago, Methuselah said:

All of which would be irrelevant, were HMG to pull its bloody finger out and provide the necessary infrastructure. 

Far more important to ban young smokers and stop small boats

[Scuba steve]

3 minutes ago, matty40s said:

Far more important to ban young smokers and stop small boats

Especially young smokers on small boats

[WYorksWeather]

7 minutes ago, Bristle Si said:

It matters if you need charge and you pull in to the services only to find 10 other peeps waiting for a free charger.

A long way to go before the UK will be in a pos to (fully) embrace EVs.

Too many Qs for many. And the cost issue is massive; not everyone can rely on a co. fleet car option.

Yep, you're right it will take time. But since Norway has a 2025 phase out, and they're at 80% sales and 20% EVs on the road, our equivalent timescale would be 2028 with a 2030 target, or 2033 with a 2035 target.

In terms of cost, I think it's important to compare like for like. For a reasonable comparison, I'd compare something like a Nissan Leaf to a Ford Fiesta. The new car price differential is currently sitting at about 50%, something like £28k vs £19k. Still quite a big difference, but I'd expect that to continue coming down. I'd be very surprised if by 2030 the cost hasn't fallen to parity, or maybe even favouring the EV.

3 minutes ago, Scuba steve said:

Especially young smokers on small boats

Or small smokers on young boats .

[Bristawl Si]

18 minutes ago, WYorksWeather said:

Oh yeah it's not a one-to-one comparison. I don't really see why population is an issue, or population density. In fact if anything that would indicate it is harder for Norway, as they have a lot of remote areas in the north of the country that need charging infrastructure in order for it to work. They also have a cold climate which hammers range in winter.

I accept the point on tax rates, oil reserves, and infrastructure/planning policy. Of course whether we should be more like Norway on those issues is more of a political question.

Simples; 'they' dont upset people, because there's so much space and, secondly, the infrastructure is only looking after c5.5m people.

They have incentives in place: subsidies, cheaper parking, tolls and ferry tickets, and the right to use bus and taxi lanes on many roads.

The strongest 'incentive' may be that they heavily tax the purchase of polluting petrol and diesel cars.

I just think they have a society and governing structure that is quite different from the UK and most of Europe. They're governed in a relatively strict way, compared to UK and rest of Europe, making the population very compliant.

It really is an Apples & Pears job, but, hey

I have a lifelong Norweigan friend and my visit there a few months ago was a joyful eyeopener, even if i took an hour to find a bar open at midday in Haugesand.

[Methuselah]

2 minutes ago, WYorksWeather said:

Yep, you're right it will take time. But since Norway has a 2025 phase out, and they're at 80% sales and 20% EVs on the road, our equivalent timescale would be 2028 with a 2030 target, or 2033 with a 2035 target.

In terms of cost, I think it's important to compare like for like. For a reasonable comparison, I'd compare something like a Nissan Leaf to a Ford Fiesta. The new car price differential is currently sitting at about 50%, something like £28k vs £19k. Still quite a big difference, but I'd expect that to continue coming down. I'd be very surprised if by 2030 the cost hasn't fallen to parity, or maybe even favouring the EV.

Or small smokers on young boats .

Weapons of Mass Distraction? 

[WYorksWeather]

1 minute ago, Bristle Si said:

Simples; 'they' dont upset people, because there's so much space and, secondly, the infrastructure is only looking after c5.5m people.

They have incentives in place: subsidies, cheaper parking, tolls and ferry tickets, and the right to use bus and taxi lanes on many roads.

The strongest 'incentive' may be that they heavily tax the purchase of polluting petrol and diesel cars.

I just think they have a society and governing structure that is quite different from the UK and most of Europe. They're governed in a relatively strict way, compared to UK and rest of Europe, making the population very compliant.

It really is an Apples & Pears job, but, hey

I have a lifelong Norweigan friend and my visit there a few months ago was a joyful eyeopener, even if i took an hour to find a bar open at midday in Haugesand.

My point about population though is that I see a lot of people who are sceptical of EVs argue that large distances are a problem - e.g. living in very rural areas etc. Living closer together should surely mean lower costs overall - you don't need as many chargers in out of the way places that don't get used often, but need to be there in case they're needed. It's a bit like bus routes - they're much better in major cities than they are in rural villages, because you have economies of scale.

I do agree that infrastructure planning culture is a huge difference. I remember reading an article a while ago which talked about the French approach - they were asked how they deal with public reaction to infrastructure projects. The guy they interviewed bluntly said 'you don't ask the frogs before you drain a swamp'. Totally different attitude - you just can't ever imagine that in the UK!

[jonboy]

32 minutes ago, Methuselah said:

All of which would be irrelevant, were HMG to pull its bloody finger out and provide the necessary infrastructure. 

Under the  present regime that won't happen 

No profit in providing a proper nationwide network 

[Scuba steve]

4 minutes ago, jonboy said:

Under the  present regime that won't happen 

No profit in providing a proper nationwide network 

Perhaps it’s because it’s a forced agenda and not market driven,after all anything worth having people will flock to buy

[jonboy]

8 minutes ago, Scuba steve said:

Perhaps it’s because it’s a forced agenda and not market driven,after all anything worth having people will flock to buy

You have to believe in the sell and this government doesn't so why would the people 

[Methuselah]

11 minutes ago, Scuba steve said:

Perhaps it’s because it’s a forced agenda and not market driven,after all anything worth having people will flock to buy

But aren't apps market-driven?