Model Output Discussion - A cold start to Spring?

[Rain All Night]

3 minutes ago, snowsummer said:

Tonight  is not a hood night to lose my glasses- especially when trying to view these on my phone haha

Sorry, here you go: https://charts.ecmwf.int/products/extended-anomaly-z500/overview/valid_time?base_time=202303020000&projection=opencharts_north_pole&valid_time=202303130000

[Mapantz]

The outer reaches of the 15Z UKV are quite impressive for a northerly..

  

[alexisj9]

2 hours ago, Purga said:

The trouble is when there's virtually complete cross model agreement on a decent cold spell & then just one rougue mild spoiler run gets thrown up, completely unexpectedly......

We all know what happens next !

Except one model did this yesterday, and then we got some good charts this morning. It's not onehundred percent that it's wrong, but it's not onehundred percent that it's right either. We'll find out soon enough. 

[Mucka]

As has been said, while ECM Op was an outlier as expected the ensembles are not good overall with a breakdown from the 8th favoured by the mean which contrasts with GFS ensembles that has cold mean through to the 10th.

It could be a blip or it could be trend and it is a reverse back to what the models were showing a couple of days ago so somewhat surprising.

The good news is that the Op is worse case scenario of the cold snap and breakdown so even if things do head that way we can hope for something better than that before the Atlantic rushes in.

I was honestly expecting a good ECM this evening so came as a bit of a shock despite the fact I know 96h through 144h are totally up for grabs beyond a guaranteed cold snap.

 Tomorrow is going to require some intrepid MO watching,

[bluearmy]

I wonder if there is a chance that the Iberian ridge could verify further west and the Atlantic trough similarly - allowing an e Atlantic ridge curving nw to the e Canadian ridge 

[Ladyofthestorm]

5 hours ago, RainAllNight said:

GFS and GEM up to day 7:

Both of them look they are going to drop the PV right over Scotland 

[ICE COLD]

Got a bad feeling the 18z is following the ECM here

[Ali1977]

Tuesday looking good for

[The Enforcer]

6 minutes ago, ICE COLD said:

Got a bad feeling the 18z is following the ECM here

ECMWF 12z

GFS 18z

GFS looks colder/snowier to my untrained eyes at T+96 at least.

 

Edited March 2, 2023 by The Enforcer

[Mark wheeler]

So far so good . Better than the 12z too.

[Ladyofthestorm]

10 minutes ago, ICE COLD said:

Got a bad feeling the 18z is following the ECM here

I think we are ok.

The NAO and AO are likely to remain negative to neutral 

Edited March 2, 2023 by Ladyofthestorm
Image in wrong place

[The Enforcer]

8 minutes ago, Ali1977 said:

Tuesday looking good for

Unfortunately, the snow/rain identification is all over the place again - e.g. snow in southern lowland and coastal areas from light precipitation and rain on welsh mountains and the Peak District from heavy precipitation = zero confidence.

Edited March 2, 2023 by The Enforcer

[Ali1977]

1 minute ago, The Enforcer said:

Unfortunately, the snow/rain identification is all over the place again - e.g. snow in southern lowland and coastal areas and rain on welsh mountains = zero confidence.

It’s just a guide, and some confirmation of moisture being around - so the chances are good.

As has been said, it’ll be 24/48 hours before where things firm up 

[ICE COLD]

1 minute ago, The Enforcer said:

ECMWF 12z

GFS 18z

GFS looks colder/snowier to my untrained eyes at T+96 at least.

 

Yes just worried bout the low out west phasing with the one over us like the ECM did . It was close but it’s just made it . 

[Met4Cast]

Purely from a teleconnective point of view, we're probably "good" in terms of forcing for higher latitude blocking until the middle of March or there abouts. Frictional torque & mountain torque is now falling and I suspect we'll see overall GLAAM begin falling too.

In terms of our weather, this will pull the Pacific jet back westwards and take our Greenland blocking with it via Canada and out into the Pacific. However; with MJO progression through phase 8 we maintain tropical forcing for higher lat blocking beyond this point and there's also the SSW to consider. 

I'd expect, as I said about 2 weeks ago to see a waxing & waining of blocking patterns. The first block next week produces cold, this then will likely relax towards the 10th and we may see a period of less cold air moving in from the Atlantic, I suspect the ECM is too progressive on todays run. Beyond that I can see another re-newed block developing, indeed the latter reaches of the ECM is suggesting scope for re-amplification following the waining of our block. 

Spring in my eyes appears to be delayed until April.

[Tim Bland]

5 minutes ago, The Enforcer said:

Unfortunately, the snow/rain identification is all over the place again - e.g. snow in southern lowland and coastal areas and rain on welsh mountains and the Peak District = zero confidence.

Think it’s a meteociel issue ok on WX 

[DAVE_ALLEN]

15 minutes ago, ICE COLD said:

Got a bad feeling the 18z is following the ECM here

if that verifies the cold will have barely reached Orkney’s by Monday.

[Ali1977]

Looking great to me 

[NewEra21]

Much stronger flow on the 18z which is good to see, showers should be piling in 

[Mark wheeler]

Well thats the 18z GFS joining the 12z UKMO and Gem with the channel low now .

[ICE COLD]

The south doing ok on this run

[Cloud 10]

Good set-up for some severe frosts next week,especially over any snowfields.

 

[ICE COLD]

Well the 18z is considerably better than the ECM at day 7 

[Dancerwithwings]

When it comes to pressure anomalies…you don’t see charts like this very often 

[CoventryWeather]

38 minutes ago, Mapantz said:

The outer reaches of the 15Z UKV are quite impressive for a northerly..

Quick question, does the Met Office UKV run underestimate shower activity in these set ups? I would have thought there would be more showers on Tuesday with the extent of the unstable airmass.