Model Output Discussion - A cold start to Spring?

[Scott Ingham]

Someone has the potential for 20cm + thursday to saturday on the borderline of both air masses. Absolute nightmare for forecasters! Everyone should see something however as the fronts waver further north with time through the week. The bullseye is if the cold air pushes south again after the northwards push. No one can call mid next week as it stands!

[The Northern Ramper]

10 minutes ago, Mark wheeler said:

Looks like the M4 south crew have a opportunity snowfall on this run then north midlands and further north have a go later on .

Sounds fair

[Aiden2012]

1 minute ago, Tim Bland said:

UKMO has it all over for England & wales by 96hrs so it’s a 3 day cold snap for most 

Maybe not all of England

[Snowy L]

2 minutes ago, Tim Bland said:

UKMO has it all over for England & wales by 96hrs so it’s a 3 day cold snap for most 

Looks like a snow line Manchester northwards to me? In this scenario with battleground snow, surface cold still there and winds coming from the area with the surface cold I'd imagine uppers of -2/-3C would be enough.

Edited March 5, 2023 by Snowy L

[Mark wheeler]

1 minute ago, sheikhy said:

Ooh ukmo looks a bit more interesting aswell!!!!

If I am being honest I wasn't quite sure what to make of it given it only comes in 24 hours frames , lots *could happen between 48 and 72 for example, be it rain or snow .

[nick sussex]

Utter chaos ! The UKMO at day 5 compared to the earlier 00hrs run to T132 hrs.

[Scott Ingham]

1 minute ago, Tim Bland said:

UKMO has it all over for England & wales by 96hrs so it’s a 3 day cold snap for most 

Not for northern england. Its very similar to the gfs (ever so slightly further north)

[londonblizzard]

-10 uppers returning to Scotland next weekend on the GFS 12Z

[Daniel*]

Cold for all really into weekend on UKMO, is it me or is North Atlantic looking a bit wedgey? Might assist in some southern corrections of Azores high and polar jet. I don’t think the medium term is completely fixed yet, that’s my impression so far of 12z models.

[Snowy L]

1 minute ago, nick sussex said:

Utter chaos ! The UKMO at day 5 compared to the earlier 00hrs run to T132 hrs.

Azores high in retreat, the smallest of further weakenings could bring huge results.

[Ali1977]

A snowy Thursday on the GEM , quickly melting in the south 

[DecSeventeen]

Shift south of that Thursday/Friday low on GFS 12z, bringing N Wales and N Midlands back into the game on this particular run.

[geordiekev]

9 minutes ago, sheikhy said:

Ooh ukmo looks a bit more interesting aswell!!!!

Another one of those Sundays where the overnighters correct as the day goes on

[Ali1977]

Something just seems strange with this next week, normally everything goes wrong for snow lovers - I just wonder if some quicker changes will occur over the next few days where the models really start gripping the complicated pattern

[That ECM]

Cold fighting back on Ukmo.  T96 plus fi?

Edited March 5, 2023 by That ECM

[Wingman Blue]

1 minute ago, Ali1977 said:

Something just seems strange with this next week, normally everything goes wrong for snow lovers - I just wonder if some quicker changes will occur over the next few days where the models really start gripping the complicated pattern

The models have been on the home brew scrumpy again.  Looks like FI is now 48hrs!

[StingJet]

10 minutes ago, Snowy L said:

Azores high in retreat, the smallest of further weakenings could bring huge results.

  our old friend "the much travelled tPV"  still keeping the UK in the game ,  a nudge further south / sw 

[geordiekev]

6 minutes ago, Ali1977 said:

Something just seems strange with this next week, normally everything goes wrong for snow lovers - I just wonder if some quicker changes will occur over the next few days where the models really start gripping the complicated pattern

Yep, I think the geographical biases which are built into the models are struggling with the huge anomolies in areas they're not programmed to deal with, especially USA. See these few days as coming to the wire

Edited March 5, 2023 by geordiekev
Add gefs

[Harsh Climate]

Peach of a run for northern england, this is what I was talking about yesterday. Could be a case of the same places getting hit over and over again from systems tracking east into the cold air.

Edited March 5, 2023 by Harsh Climate

[Whether Idle]

14 minutes ago, StingJet said:

  our old friend "the much travelled tPV"  still keeping the UK in the game ,  a nudge further south / sw 

This one is trending colder and southward I feel.  Going to be an interesting week with lots of nowcasting.

[phil nw.]

An interesting pattern with the boundaries still uncertain as each low approaches.

No real signal to breakdown the pattern completely.

We could see a mild push towards the weekend before cold comes back as suggested by some ensembles.

[Polaris]

4 minutes ago, Harsh Climate said:

Peach of a run for northern england, this is what I was talking about yesterday. Could be a case of the same places getting hit over and over again from systems tracking east into the cold air.

As a correction South is 90% of the time down to T0hr. Midlands place to be next week if any ppn actually around. 

[IDO]

This is where I was thinking a couple of days ago, boundary Birmingham north. So over-correction possibly with the heights to the south last few runs, and we are back in that ballpark again. The GFS snow-wise is much better than the GEM, so wary GFS is probably overplaying the snow, but a good run for the north, though transient snow nearer sea level may be more likely, GFS to D10:

[SLEETY]

You can tell people till your blue in the face to stop looking 6-7 days ahead and  thinking the charts will verify at that range like people were 12 hours ago,with mild air winning the battleMore especially in these rare set-ups with low pressure bumping into cold air over the UK the models always want to bring the Atlantic in too quickly or have the low pressure on the wrong track too far North and the reality is the low pressure systems track much further South as time heads nearer to zero hours.

Edited March 5, 2023 by SLEETY

[Harsh Climate]

5 minutes ago, Polaris said:

As a correction South is 90% of the time down to T0hr. Midlands place to be next week if any ppn actually around. 

Pure guesswork at the moment, but I'd rather be further north of midlands to be on right side of marginal at this moment, but you never know the systems like you say may actually be further south than initially thought bringing -5 dam line further south with it.

Edited March 5, 2023 by Harsh Climate