Spring 2023 - Moans, Ramps & Chat

[ANYWEATHER]

Grey day here in Pershore wish the bloody sun would come out . Anyway Pershore Abbey looks magnificent

[TwisterGirl81]

1 hour ago, lassie23 said:

Which is where most have second homes lol

One last major blizzard for Devon, here's hoping lol

We can't even get a blizzard or heavy snow where I am in Devon during winter, if's it's freezing and rain comes through it's usually rain here (apart from dartmoor/exmoor) then turns to snow further north/east lol  We always seem to be in the no mans land down here ha But the spring and summers make up for it I guess 'usually'

Edited March 16, 2023 by TwisterGirl81

[lassie23]

4 minutes ago, TwisterGirl81 said:

We can't even get a blizzard or heavy snow where I am in Devon during winter, it's usually usually rain here then turns to snow further north/east lol  We always seem to be in the no mans land down here ha But the spring and summers make up for it I guess 'usually'

That sucks lol

[Sunny76]

2 hours ago, kold weather said:

The problem is alot of that rainfall has come in bursts that have not always been steady enough to help deeper ground reserves. We've had several quite lengthy dry spells this winter which has dried thongs out again.

with that being said alot of the worry about drought stems from that met office forecast of a higher risk of a dry spring. Too early to know whether that will be a bust forecast, but it will need a considerable drying out spell for us to be decently below average even this early into the season, so I think some of 5he worst case scenario might not cone off.

Still a significantly warm and/or dry summer will still stretch things, particularly away from the far south (which is actually now running a 12 month surplus) and more typically wet parts further north/west.

We have no idea how summer 23 will pan out yet.

If we get some lengthy thundery spells, it won’t be a drought situation. 
 

With a shifting Nina into Nino, it will probably mean a less settled summer with warm temps and thundery lows. 

[ANYWEATHER]

10 minutes ago, Sunny76 said:

We have no idea how summer 23 will pan out yet.

If we get some lengthy thundery spells, it won’t be a drought situation. 
 

With a shifting Nina into Nino, it will probably mean a less settled summer with warm temps and thundery lows. 

I thought we were now into a neutral phase of the ENSO pattern….

[kold weather]

1 hour ago, Sunny76 said:

We have no idea how summer 23 will pan out yet.

If we get some lengthy thundery spells, it won’t be a drought situation. 
 

With a shifting Nina into Nino, it will probably mean a less settled summer with warm temps and thundery lows. 

Hard to say, we've only got two real good analogues at the moment, one being 57 (awesome June, bad rest) and 76 (awesome full stop).

That we are seeing long range models look like they are is raising eyebrows though.

[Cheshire Freeze]

1 hour ago, Sunny76 said:

We have no idea how summer 23 will pan out yet.

If we get some lengthy thundery spells, it won’t be a drought situation. 
 

With a shifting Nina into Nino, it will probably mean a less settled summer with warm temps and thundery lows. 

The two analogues for multi year La Niña into El Niño produced very hot and dry summers. ‘76 was one of them.

It’s backed up by the seasonals this year too. They all go for a summer of HP over the UK.

Edited March 16, 2023 by CreweCold

[cheeky_monkey]

2 hours ago, CreweCold said:

The two analogues for multi year La Niña into El Niño produced very hot and dry summers. ‘76 was one of them.

It’s backed up by the seasonals this year too. They all go for a summer of HP over the UK.

what was the other one?

[Cheshire Freeze]

56 minutes ago, cheeky_monkey said:

what was the other one?

2018 I believe. Another hot, dry summer.

[Summer8906]

Something of a shift in the models next week, which looks less notably wet in the south and southeast albeit with (probably) frequent light rain and cloudy skies - it has persistent SWlies but now without especially low pressure. Perhaps now a window of a couple of genuinely spring-like days on Sunday and Monday with a ridge.

Then the tendency seems to be for it to become more cyclonic and then possibly colder, with low pressure moving southwards with time and some hint of getting back into NE-lies or E-lies for the final week.

The one thing that is missing is true anticyclonic weather - completely absent from the month according to current GFS runs.

 

Edited March 16, 2023 by Summer8906

[Stuie]

4 hours ago, CreweCold said:

The two analogues for multi year La Niña into El Niño produced very hot and dry summers. ‘76 was one of them.

It’s backed up by the seasonals this year too. They all go for a summer of HP over the UK.

That sounds great for summer.  I do wonder how hot `76 would have been in this current climate. If we do end up with HP over us,  wouldn`t be surprised for us to be around the 40c mark again. Times have changed.

[Andy Bown]

32 minutes ago, Stuie said:

That sounds great for summer.  I do wonder how hot `76 would have been in this current climate. If we do end up with HP over us,  wouldn`t be surprised for us to be around the 40c mark again. Times have changed.

If we have HIGH pressure right over the UK the temperature will not reach 40c. To achieve that needs the exceptional set up like last year.

[ANYWEATHER]

48 minutes ago, Stuie said:

That sounds great for summer.  I do wonder how hot `76 would have been in this current climate. If we do end up with HP over us,  wouldn`t be surprised for us to be around the 40c mark again. Times have changed.

Times have not changed matey, but perception has......

[Sun Chaser]

40 minutes ago, Stuie said:

That sounds great for summer.  I do wonder how hot `76 would have been in this current climate. If we do end up with HP over us,  wouldn`t be surprised for us to be around the 40c mark again. Times have changed.

It would give us weeks of high 20s to low 30s weather which would be an absolute dream!! Anything above 35C can only really be achieved with a long southerly fetch, i.e from a "heat pump" low to the west or an HP anomaly slightly to the east, which is why it tends not to last so long. July 2022 is a good example of this: 5th-16th were a beautiful spell of days with wall to wall sunshine around 27-33c that had HP directly over the UK before a low arrived from the west and pumped extreme heat from Iberia towards us and broke the heat record.

[Sun Chaser]

3 minutes ago, ANYWEATHER said:

Times have not changed matey, but perception has......

40C would not have been possible before the last ten years or so.

[ANYWEATHER]

6 minutes ago, plymsunshine said:

40C would not have been possible before the last ten years or so.

Everything is/ was possible.  It's happened way past in history, and guess what it will happen again, just like minus 30c ,has happened in past history and will happen again.....

[Stuie]

8 minutes ago, ANYWEATHER said:

Times have not changed matey, but perception has......

When in 1960 did we have 40 degs? Not getting into this but enjoy life.

[kold weather]

3 hours ago, cheeky_monkey said:

what was the other one?

1957 would be the other main one. Amazing June (warm, held the record sunshine levels till May 2020, 35c towards end of month) but not great 2nd half at all. Kinda like a summer version of winter 10-11. Front loaded big time.

[Summer8906]

Just now, kold weather said:

1957 would be the other main one. Amazing June (warm, held the record sunshine levels till May 2020, 35c towards end of month) but not great 2nd half at all. Kinda like a summer version of winter 10-11. Front loaded big time.

Even more so, in fact. July 1957 looked pretty poor all-round, whereas January 2011 was passable for a winter month with the second half dry and fairly cold.

So if we're to average the two (1957 and 1976) out, we can expect an epic June, breaking records for both June max temp and sunshine, and a very average July and August, I guess...

[Cheshire Freeze]

5 minutes ago, kold weather said:

1957 would be the other main one. Amazing June (warm, held the record sunshine levels till May 2020, 35c towards end of month) but not great 2nd half at all. Kinda like a summer version of winter 10-11. Front loaded big time.

I think it'll ultimately depend how quickly and how strong El Nino comes on...quite plausible we see a quick collapse of the HP signal on the seasonals if El Nino comes in quicker and stronger than they have been seeing.

Edited March 16, 2023 by CreweCold

[John S2]

1 hour ago, CreweCold said:

I think it'll ultimately depend how quickly and how strong El Nino comes on...quite plausible we see a quick collapse of the HP signal on the seasonals if El Nino comes in quicker and stronger than they have been seeing.

This statement is supported by the evidence, looking at ENSO indices since 1950. Two distinct groups that started the year with La Nina and finished the year with El Nino. Group (a) ENSO neutral during the summer (b) El Nino already arrived by summer:

Group A - 1976, 2006, 2018

Group B - 1965, 1972, 2009

[Cheshire Freeze]

11 minutes ago, John S2 said:

This statement is supported by the evidence, looking at ENSO indices since 1950. Two distinct groups that started the year with La Nina and finished the year with El Nino. Group (a) ENSO neutral during the summer (b) El Nino already arrived by summer:

Group A - 1976, 2006, 2018

Group B - 1965, 1972, 2009

Yes it'll be interesting to see what happens in the Pacific with regards to El Nino over the next 2-3 months.

ENSO neutral supports Azores HP ridging into the UK/Europe

[Sunny76]

2 hours ago, plymsunshine said:

40C would not have been possible before the last ten years or so.

35c was achieved in 1976, and 1990 wasn’t far off 40c, so it was a possibility many years ago.

[Sunny76]

2 hours ago, Stuie said:

When in 1960 did we have 40 degs? Not getting into this but enjoy life.

In terms of what we are now seeing, more extreme heat spikes have become more common since post 1987. Not just in the U.K. but across Europe and North America. 
 

But, to assume we won’t get another cool summer or extremely cold sub zero month in the future isn’t a guarantee. Yes, it’s less lightly compared to 36 years ago, never say never.

[Don]

32 minutes ago, CreweCold said:

Yes it'll be interesting to see what happens in the Pacific with regards to El Nino over the next 2-3 months.

ENSO neutral supports Azores HP ridging into the UK/Europe

Hopefully if El Nino is to develop it happens rapidly as I don't like the prospect of fearsome heat again this summer.  However, long range models seem to be in agreement at this early stage for a hot one!

Just now, Sunny76 said:

In terms of what we are now seeing, more extreme heat spikes have become more common since post 1987. Not just in the U.K. but across Europe and North America. 

Heat spikes in the UK really stepped up since 2015.