Spring 2023 - Moans, Ramps & Chat

[Azazel]

9 hours ago, CryoraptorA303 said:

People do. It doesn't help that by the end of the month we're at mid-September insolation with longer days than nights, yet we're averaging a full 7c below mid-September in temperature (which makes the difference between warm and cold to a lot of people) due to seasonal lag. I think the mental aspect of high Sun = warmth misleads a lot of people into expecting a serious warmup in March rather than treating it as the exception, and then complaining when it's still in the low teens, even though that's what we would expect from a normal March. Only the most exceptional Marches have the sort of conditions that people expect it to; in my lifetime there's only been March 2012 and March 2011 not far behind it. Aside from that, you can somewhat reliably expect a warm spell towards the end that brings us into the high teens for a few days, but that's about it. Even in April, it's perfectly acceptable to go into the high single digits for a few days in the beginning and it happens in more years than not.

I'm surprised you mention last March. While it definitely was a warmer March than some and had that warm spell in the second half of the month, it really wasn't much out of the ordinary. Even then, expecting every March to be like 2022 as a default is going to leave you disappointed a lot of the time. Sometimes a 2013 or 2018 is going to happen given the margin of error (although 2018 later became a disaster/dream depending on how you view the heat and dryness). The point being I suppose, this March is really nothing out of the ordinary and if anything is one of the more average Marches in my lifetime, temperature-wise. Precipitation wise, this is definitely one of the more unusual ones (although it doesn't seem to be hitting anywhere near as hard as some runs were suggesting... or is the average March really that dry?).

Okay, two things, one a direct response and the other a concession.

First off, I have never claimed that 10c is 'warm'. It's obviously not. Of course at that temperature it all depends on sunlight, humidity, wind, etc. An overcast, windy day in December at 10c is going to feel significantly more chilly than a sunny, gentle day in April at 10c. E.g. in March 2020 I remember going out in a t-shirt in 10-11c weather because of the bright sunshine at the time, while in January I needed a jacket to go out in 12-13c overcast, windy conditions and the chill in the air was unpleasant.

My claim is that 10c can't really be described as "cold" weather, and its not unseasonable either. Further into April, maybe, but 10c in the middle of March is bang on average for most places; even London's average sits at 11c at this point of the year. Single digits in March are completely normal and are going to happen in all but the most exceptional of years. In fact they're going to happen in April more often than not. We started the month off below average and had a few chilly days, yes, fair enough, if you hate the cold complain about them, and if you're up north and have been in the middle of snow (which is still normal for March all things considered), complain about that. But if you're down south where the worst we had was a few frosty mornings and a dusting of snow which lasted a grand total of 4 hours if you're lucky, and now we've gone up to bang on, if not even a little above average and seem to be staying there for the duration, I'm sorry but that really doesn't come off as unseasonable to me. People need to lower their expectations for the fourth coldest month in the year. The way some people are talking you'd think it was May already.

As for the rest of the stuff, okay, you have a point on that, I've been too harsh on some people for their weather preferences. If you like hot weather, fine. If it's in the context for what's normal in this country. If you want an above average summer with plenty of high-20s days and a maximum in the low-30s, okay fair enough. I find that a bit unpleasant, but it isn't the end of the world, I'll live, and so will the wildlife. What annoys me (and I'm not saying every heat lover is doing this) is when people wish unusually severe heat upon this country, heat that ruins the ecosystem and kills people. It is possible to be a heat lover and acknowledge that there are lines that shouldn't be crossed, and if they are, something is going seriously wrong. I suppose you could say it's the sense of entitlement that this country should have heat and sun that causes droughts every time it happens is what gets me about the whole thing, especially considering the humanitarian crisis-in-the-making that shall not be named going on right now, the effects of which should be making us recoil in shock that these sorts of extremes keep happening. I find it grossly inappropriate to enjoy it. Enjoy warm summers by our normal standards, not these freakshow heatwaves that are happening almost every year now. If you enjoy a summer like, say, 2010 or 2013, that is more than fair enough. Those were warm (well parts of them anyway) by our normal standards and probably didn't kill anyone. Enjoying those summers is completely innocuous. Enjoying a summer like 2018 or 2022 however, in my mind a line has been crossed. Those summers aren't times to enjoy, those had serious repercussions.

Also, that person is completely wrong, way more people die in the heat in this country than in the cold, and last time I checked the cold doesn't burn down houses or hectares upon hectares of wildlands. The environmental costs of these heatwaves is huge vs the cost of cold spells, which of course there is a cost but considering how 'un-extreme' our cold spells tend to be, its nowhere close. Not to mention, our infrastructure isn't that good at dealing with real cold, but it's a lot worse at dealing with the heat, and people in this country have no idea how to safely enjoy heat in the high-30s and beyond. Why? Because it's not supposed to happen that often, if ever. The absolute hottest it's supposed to get on multi-centennial timescales is about 38c, and we've exceeded that four times in this century alone. That's not counting the number of times we've reached the mid-30s, which still isn't supposed to happen anywhere near as often as it has been. But I won't drone on about that now.

But I will take this opportunity to apologise to anyone who I've directly or indirectly told to go somewhere else where this sort of heat is the norm, or otherwise insulted. I would simply like some conscience that these heatwaves aren't just 'a bit of warm weather' and are seriously damaging to nature and the vulnerable. Enjoy your heat responsibly guys.

I guess this has all come out because of people complaining about the recent weather. Of course, I complained about February being too warm, so it may come off as hypocritical, but bear in mind that the second half of February was unusually warm for February and was heading for a really early spring. There's that vs wow this March has been really cold, well no it hasn't really has it. Your expectations of the fourth coldest month are way too high vs the reality of the situation. You'll notice I haven't said anything about the (larger) number of people commenting about the overcast conditions; that's because it really is quite overcast for March. That's the part I don't dispute, it is very autumn-like for the opposite season. March is supposed to be among the driest, sunniest months, so that part is the abnormal one. Moaning about the temperature is, imo, barking up the wrong tree.

Just remember you are on a forum for weather enthusiasts and so the demographic is always going to be skewed towards the extreme edges of the spectrum. 
 

People on here wish for historic freezes and winter cold. People wish for record breaking heat. People wish for record breaking windstorms and severe thunderstorms. 
 

Im going to stick my neck out and take a guess that nobody here wants anyone to die or for wildlife to suffer, but nearly everyone is probably enticed by the prospect of interesting/severe weather. That doesn’t make them a bad person and I don’t think they should be made to feel guilty for it either. 

 

It would be a pretty boring place if we all came on here to discuss and wish for non-descript, gentle weather all year round.

[stainesbloke]

3 hours ago, S Bragg said:

For what it's worth the older I get the less I like the heat.  Personally, I'm dreading the onset of Spring and Summer this year and I will not apologise for that.

Fair enough, I can’t take very high temperatures anymore as I’m hitting 50 but it is quite surprising when people act like the UK climate in summer has suddenly morphed into that resembling Seville or Death Valley. It really hasn’t and is still very much recognisably the usual insipid British offering, barring one or two very hot days.

[Sun Chaser]

1 hour ago, KTtom said:

Very happy with the model output this morning. The threat of a cold March is quickly receeding, after todays nucence cold, my location is back to double figures, even 15 c possible by the end of the week..1st beers of the year  in the beer garden after work friday

Except for all the rain... you might be the only one sitting in the beer garden after work friday it'll probably be torrential. Rather it was 8C and sunny than 14C and wet

[Sunny76]

26 minutes ago, stainesbloke said:

Fair enough, I can’t take very high temperatures anymore as I’m hitting 50 but it is quite surprising when people act like the UK climate in summer has suddenly morphed into that resembling Seville or Death Valley. It really hasn’t and is still very much recognisably the usual insipid British offering, barring one or two very hot days.

Yeah, we are definitely not a Mediterranean climate. 
 

This is why so many people head to Spain, Italy, Greece, Portugal in the summer months. Granted they are a little too hot in July and August, but June and September are still not and hot in those regions, where as in the U.K. summer has either gone, or hasn’t even started.

[sunny_vale]

Looking at historical data, it appears that climate has shifted slightly 'South'. To say for example, that the climate in London now is more or less what Paris would have had about 40 years ago, more so April to October - not an exact science but generally. Far from Mediterranean but there has been a shift.

[alexisj9]

9 hours ago, Don said:

Not sure there were any periods in January and more particularly February when it was very cold.  I would place the winter in the mild category overall.

Depends where, down here, which doesn't contribute to the CET, with the often slight easterly draw, it's been pretty chilly quite often, but not what you'd call proper cold though. That's really restricted to December. It's certainly not been mild or even for the most part average, till late Feb.

[cobbett]

Please let April be better than this dismal month - important stuff coming up -  Beer fest, Golf weekend and then Easter !

[kold weather]

2 hours ago, stainesbloke said:

Fair enough, I can’t take very high temperatures anymore as I’m hitting 50 but it is quite surprising when people act like the UK climate in summer has suddenly morphed into that resembling Seville or Death Valley. It really hasn’t and is still very much recognisably the usual insipid British offering, barring one or two very hot days.

I think tge one difference that I have noticed in summer is we seem to be getting those 34-36c days every single summer now, even in modest summers we seem to have an odd got spell that makes it. Basically it's become the new 31-33c in the last 7 years or so.

[mb018538]

March is shaping up to be pretty forgettable round here. Plenty of rain, not especially warm. Rest of the month looking poor as well. Don't mind so much as it's early spring and harder to get notably warm anyway....April will just have to do the leg work and make up for it! 

[SunSean]

This month is looking odds on to finish as the cloudiest March on record over here in the South East! We are still under 20 hours for the month and being almost at the halfway point, with mostly cloudy weather forecast, it could end up making the cloudfest of March 2013 look like May 2020 in comparison. In fact, its likely to end up cloudier than even most Decembers. Truly horrific! I'm glad i spent a few days in Malaga last weekend, beautiful weather out there.

[MP-R]

It’s been a dismal month for sunshine, apart from the 2nd, but today is gloriously sunny here albeit a tad nippy. Sun makes such a difference!

[Daniel*]

14 hours ago, CryoraptorA303 said:

 

Also, that person is completely wrong, way more people die in the heat in this country than in the cold,

No you’re completely wrong. This is not a hot country.

“Each year in England and Wales, there were on average nearly 800 excess deaths associated with heat and over 60,500 associated with cold between 2000 and 2019”, according to a new study published in The Lancet Planetary Health

 

a recent article from Washington Post. “For every death linked to heat, nine are tied to cold.”

https://www.washingtonpost.com/climate-environment/interactive/2023/hot-cold-extreme-temperature-deaths/

Edited March 14, 2023 by Daniel*

[S Bragg]

Today is a nice illustration of why I tend to prefer sunny weather in the Spring than the Summer - the Sun feels pleasantly warm out there now but it's still cool enough that I can tat around in the garden and not sweat.  Now once we reach mid/late May, it gets too hot when it's sunny (at least for my taste).  

[KTtom]

4 hours ago, plymsunshine said:

Except for all the rain... you might be the only one sitting in the beer garden after work friday it'll probably be torrential. Rather it was 8C and sunny than 14C and wet

Currently looking good for Friday, Thursday, however is something else! Anyway, we need the rain so I keep getting told.

[stainesbloke]

3 hours ago, kold weather said:

I think tge one difference that I have noticed in summer is we seem to be getting those 34-36c days every single summer now, even in modest summers we seem to have an odd got spell that makes it. Basically it's become the new 31-33c in the last 7 years or so.

Agree, the brief heat spikes are several degrees hotter than they were several decades ago. They are nearly always brief (sometimes less than a day) and the other 99% of summer is still typically British (the lack of thunderstorm’s notwithstanding)

[mb018538]

38 minutes ago, KTtom said:

Currently looking good for Friday, Thursday, however is something else! Anyway, we need the rain so I keep getting told.

Met Office might need to update their 3 month plan. It was only issued at the end of February, and gave a 10% chance of a wet spring. Seeing as it's done nothing but chuck it down in March, and the outlook below shows this continuing out to the end of the month....going to need a very dry April and May for that to be right now!

[Ross90]

Think it's safe to say the chances of any significant low level snow are pretty much over after this week.

[stainesbloke]

3 hours ago, kold weather said:

I think tge one difference that I have noticed in summer is we seem to be getting those 34-36c days every single summer now, even in modest summers we seem to have an odd got spell that makes it. Basically it's become the new 31-33c in the last 7 years or so.

Very true (and a reduction of decent thunderstorms) though the other 99% of the time it’s the usual bland offering

[MP-R]

2 minutes ago, stainesbloke said:

Very true (and a reduction of decent thunderstorms) though the other 99% of the time it’s the usual bland offering

Seems to be the cooler or poorer summers that bring the better thundery activity too annoyingly, possibly due to higher incidence of plumey heatwaves rather than long high pressure heatwaves, in addition to a lot of rPm or unstable airmasses. 

2018 and 2022 were both cracking but naff for thunderstorms. I'd take a thundery spring and early autumn though, if it meant longer hot sunny periods in the summer months.

[stainesbloke]

5 minutes ago, MP-R said:

Seems to be the cooler or poorer summers that bring the better thundery activity too annoyingly, possibly due to higher incidence of plumey heatwaves rather than long high pressure heatwaves, in addition to a lot of rPm or unstable airmasses. 

2018 and 2022 were both cracking but naff for thunderstorms. I'd take a thundery spring and early autumn though, if it meant longer hot sunny periods in the summer months.

Me too, spring can be pretty good for storms, and a wetter spring from a gardening viewpoint is quite welcome as long as it’s not cold. 

[danm]

4 hours ago, kold weather said:

I think tge one difference that I have noticed in summer is we seem to be getting those 34-36c days every single summer now, even in modest summers we seem to have an odd got spell that makes it. Basically it's become the new 31-33c in the last 7 years or so.

Yep totally agree. 34c to 36c is almost becoming an annual occurrence, at least down south. 

Going to do a bit of a data dump here, as I've found the trend to more regular extreme summer temperatures and lengthier heatwaves quite fascinating. 

Looking back at the records for Heathrow Airport since 2013, we have the following when 34c was breached:

2013: 34c on 1st August

2015: 36.7c on 1st July

2017: 34c on 21st June

2018: 35c on 27th July

2019: 37.9c on 25th July, 34c on 29th June

2020: 37.8c on 31st July, 36.4c on 7th August, 35.5c on 10th August, 35.7c on 11th August, 35.4c on 12th August

2022: 37.1c on 18th July, 40.2c on 19th July, 34.2c on 13th August

 

There have also been an increasing number of spells where ~30c has breached on multiple consecutive days. It used to be the case that in most summers you'd get the odd heatwave where temperatures may exceed 30c for a day or two before a breakdown and cooler weather, except in a few exceptional summers. 

If we look back over the same 10 year period, 2013-2022, these are the ~29c/30c+ spells at Heathrow:

2013: 13th July to 19th July - 7 consecutive days where 29c was breached (31.4c, 29.8c, 30.9c, 31c, 31.9c, 29.5c, 29.3c). Then between the 21st and 27th of July, the heat continued (albeit a bit cooler) with each day exceeding 26c, peaking 33.5c on the 22nd. 

2017: 17th June to 21st June - 5 consecutive days exceeding 30c (30.1c, 31.7c, 32c, 31.4c, 33.9c). 

2018: 5th July to 9th July - 5 consecutive days exceeding 30c (30.1c, 30.9c, 31.5c, 31c, 30.5c). Preceded by 31.8c and 30.1c on the 1st and 2nd. There was 30.3c and 30c on the 15th and 16th, and then another 7 day spell between 21st and 27th July where temperatures exceeded 28c, 5 of which were above 30c (28.5c, 28.9c, 32.2c, 30.2c, 30.9c, 35c, 32c). August then had another 6 day spell where temps exceeded 29c, between 2nd and 7th (30.4c, 32.6c, 29c, 29.8c, 31c, 31.2c)

2019: 3 day spell between 23rd to 25th July (33.6c, 32.8c, 37.9c). 4 days between 24th and 27th August (30.7c, 33.3c, 33.2c, 33.4c)

2020: 23rd to 26th June (28.6c, 32.6c, 33.4c, 31c). A brief blast of extreme heat on the 31st July with 37.8c and then an 8 day spell between 6th and 12th August when 28c was breached, 6 of those days above 30c (29.7c, 36.4c, 33.4c, 33.8c, 35.5c, 35.7c, 35.4c, 28.4c)

2021: In an otherwise fairly poor summer for the south, 2021 still had a 6 day spell between 17th and 22nd July where 28c was breached, 4 of them above 30c (28.4c, 31.6c, 31.4c, 32.2c, 30.4c, 29.8c)

2022: A protracted hot spell between 8th July and 19th July. Of those 12 days, 9 exceeded 28c, 5 exceeded 30c and 1 exceeded 40c: (28.7c, 27.5c, 29.7c, 31.8c, 31.3c, 28.7c, 25.3c, 27.2c, 29.1c, 30.8c, 37.1c, 40.2c). Then another 8 day spell between 8th and 15th August when 28c was breached, 5 of those days above 30c (29.7c, 29.1c, 30.9c, 33.3c, 33.9c, 34.2c, 33.1c, 29.5c).

 

The above shows that not only are we seeing temperatures exceeding 34c more regularly, but heatwaves are getting longer. We're increasingly seeing spells where several consecutive days are breaking the 28c/29c/30c barrier. 

 

 

Edited March 14, 2023 by danm

[sunny_vale]

11 minutes ago, danm said:

Yep totally agree. 34c to 36c is almost becoming an annual occurrence, at least down south. 

Going to do a bit of a data dump here, as I've found the trend to more regular extreme summer temperatures and lengthier heatwaves quite fascinating. 

Looking back at the records for Heathrow Airport since 2013, we have the following when 34c was breached:

2013: 34c on 1st August

2015: 36.7c on 1st July

2017: 34c on 21st June

2018: 35c on 27th July

2019: 37.9c on 25th July, 34c on 29th June

2020: 37.8c on 31st July, 36.4c on 7th August, 35.5c on 10th August, 35.7c on 11th August, 35.4c on 12th August

2022: 37.1c on 18th July, 40.2c on 19th July, 34.2c on 13th August

 

There have also been an increasing number of spells where ~30c has breached on multiple consecutive days. It used to be the case that in most summers you'd get the odd heatwave where temperatures may exceed 30c for a day or two before a breakdown and cooler weather, except in a few exceptional summers. 

If we look back over the same 10 year period, 2013-2022, these are the ~29c/30c+ spells at Heathrow:

2013: 13th July to 19th July - 7 consecutive days where 29c was breached (31.4c, 29.8c, 30.9c, 31c, 31.9c, 29.5c, 29.3c). Then between the 21st and 27th of July, the heat continued (albeit a bit cooler) with each day exceeding 26c, peaking 33.5c on the 22nd. 

2017: 17th June to 21st June - 5 consecutive days exceeding 30c (30.1c, 31.7c, 32c, 31.4c, 33.9c). 

2018: 5th July to 9th July - 5 consecutive days exceeding 30c (30.1c, 30.9c, 31.5c, 31c, 30.5c). Preceded by 31.8c and 30.1c on the 1st and 2nd. There was 30.3c and 30c on the 15th and 16th, and then another 7 day spell between 21st and 27th July where temperatures exceeded 28c, 5 of which were above 30c (28.5c, 28.9c, 32.2c, 30.2c, 30.9c, 35c, 32c). August then had another 6 day spell where temps exceeded 29c, between 2nd and 7th (30.4c, 32.6c, 29c, 29.8c, 31c, 31.2c)

2019: 3 day spell between 23rd to 25th July (33.6c, 32.8c, 37.9c). 4 days between 24th and 27th August (30.7c, 33.3c, 33.2c, 33.4c)

2020: 23rd to 26th June (28.6c, 32.6c, 33.4c, 31c). A brief blast of extreme heat on the 31st July with 37.8c and then an 8 day spell between 6th and 12th August when 28c was breached, 6 of those days above 30c (29.7c, 36.4c, 33.4c, 33.8c, 35.5c, 35.7c, 35.4c, 28.4c)

2021: In an otherwise fairly poor summer for the south, 2021 still had a 6 day spell between 17th and 22nd July where 28c was breached, 4 of them above 30c (28.4c, 31.6c, 31.4c, 32.2c, 30.4c, 29.8c)

2022: A protracted hot spell between 8th July and 19th July. Of those 12 days, 9 exceeded 28c, 5 exceeded 30c and 1 exceeded 40c: (28.7c, 27.5c, 29.7c, 31.8c, 31.3c, 28.7c, 25.3c, 27.2c, 29.1c, 30.8c, 37.1c, 40.2c). Then another 8 day spell between 8th and 15th August when 28c was breached, 5 of those days above 30c (29.7c, 29.1c, 30.9c, 33.3c, 33.9c, 34.2c, 33.1c, 29.5c).

 

The above shows that not only are we seeing temperatures exceeding 34c more regularly, but heatwaves are getting longer. We're increasingly seeing spells where several consecutive days are breaking the 28c/29c/30c barrier. 

 

 

This is really noticeable in the average monthly Tmax since 2013 too. Of the last 10 years, 15 months exceeded 24C+ including 4 months 26C+. The previous 10 years in comparison had 4 months exceeding 24C+ including 2 26C+. (Ranges from 1 month to 9 in previous 5 decades)

[Guest]

Cor, the silence is deafening. A pretty normal and mundane outlook as we head into the second half of March and I guess this is reflected by the lack of posts. 

[Summer8906]

On 13/03/2023 at 07:32, markyo said:

Highly unlikely to come off......thankfully!

Thankfully?

20C would imply extensive sunshine at this time of year - better than this endless rain and gloom.

 

[Summer8906]

45 minutes ago, Tidal Wave said:

Cor, the silence is deafening. A pretty normal and mundane outlook as we head into the second half of March and I guess this is reflected by the lack of posts. 

I'm not sure it's normal, looks incredibly cyclonic for March. I'd say likely to be one of the wettest and dullest on record, on current GFS runs. Certainly the worst March since 1981, on current runs, by the looks of things.

I hope April does improve; an April as bad as March will be disastrous. I've said this already but given how gloomy life is in general at the moment, we need spring to arrive to cheer us up. At this rate, it'll be April before spring arrives! Like 2013, but without the interesting cold which was the saving grace of that year.

Luckily, March and April weather are often different, and the worst Aprils did not follow particularly bad Marches.

 

Edited March 14, 2023 by Summer8906