Model Output Discussion - Snow Watch limited edition

[Fourty Point Three Degrees]

Absolutely appalling here in Cheshire. Been snowing for 5 hours and it's still not even sticking. Anyone know what's going on? 

[near northampton]

1 hour ago, Polar Maritime said:

Sheep are in here, what a job.. Many local farmers have been panicking given the updated warnings earlier The stress doesn't do them good when in lamb. But it's for the best..

These are the consequences of abnormal weather at the wrong time, feel for the sheep farmers  and what could happen in the worst case.

[Bricriu]

3 minutes ago, 38.7°C said:

Absolutely appalling here in Cheshire. Been snowing for 5 hours and it's still not even sticking. Anyone know what's going on? 

Ground temperature is too warm, perhaps. Is the snow heavy there? 

Edited March 8, 2023 by Bricriu

[Tim Bland]

8 minutes ago, Mike Poole said:

I’m pretty sure some of this is down to the chart providers rather than the models - I’m sure some charts showing ‘snow depth’ are actually cumulative snow from time zero.  The ones on Meteociel make it quite clear which it is (in French), but I’m not sure about some of the others.

I think we got what most were expecting today - a welcome snow event after a snowless winter, with the obvious issues re settling given it is now March.  Despite what some say, I don’t get the impression many on here (in the south anyway) were expecting ice days and powder snow!  I’ll be interested to see what happens further north tomorrow, where the cold has had a few days in place already.  

Fair point. I did point out 3 times yesterday when total precip charts were posted as snow depths.   Below is yesterdays 12z ECM snow depth for tomorrow morning. Many areas shown to have 5-15cm will have almost nothing and areas in the far south shown to have 3-5cm will definitely have 0. Just worth bearing in mind for those on lower ground further north tomorrow 

[feb1991blizzard]

2 minutes ago, simshady said:

Why on snow charts does there always seem to be a snowless Manchester?

because Manchester is usually snowless! - its called the Manchester rain shadow but it doesn't seem to work with rain, it always works with snow - that is one aspect of PPN charts that is usually modelled well.

[Polar Maritime]

1 minute ago, near northampton said:

These are the consequences of abnormal weather at the wrong time, feel for the sheep farmers  and what could happen in the worst case.

Something we are used to doing from time to time at my location, sometimes it's snow during lambing, sometimes gales where we have to build shelters out of bales of hay. But we have always coped and is a way of life farming in the Peak District. We all knit in when we have to and understand..

[Blizzardof82]

Just now, Tim Bland said:

Fair point. I did point out 3 times yesterday when total precip charts were posted as snow depths.   Below is yesterdays 12z ECM snow depth for tomorrow morning. Many areas shown to have 5-15cm will have almost nothing and areas in the far south shown to have 3-5cm will definitely have 0. Just worth bearing in mind for those on lower ground further north tomorrow 

Yes that M4 corridor promise didn't matérialise, although saying that I did better last night than expected, so swings and roundabouts.  

[alexisj9]

3 minutes ago, Tim Bland said:

Fair point. I did point out 3 times yesterday when total precip charts were posted as snow depths.   Below is yesterdays 12z ECM snow depth for tomorrow morning. Many areas shown to have 5-15cm will have almost nothing and areas in the far south shown to have 3-5cm will definitely have 0. Just worth bearing in mind for those on lower ground further north tomorrow 

What's this chart on, no chance of any snow down here over night and tomorrow, even though a cold front is about to come through from today's low. Tomorrow's low is coming in to far north 

[Snowonder]

Can anyone in Bedford area confirm thunder snow. I’m sure I saw lightning and a rumble!

[ChezWeather]

GFS Pub run snow depth 

[Mucka]

14 minutes ago, 38.7°C said:

Absolutely appalling here in Cheshire. Been snowing for 5 hours and it's still not even sticking. Anyone know what's going on? 

At least you got snow falling. Had a little slight snizzle here in S Manchester and expecting more of the same tomorrow. Snow desert.

[Ali1977]

I’m Just wondering if on Friday those in the midlands and south of there will actually see their best covering of snow - looks like a few hours of potential 

[Fourty Point Three Degrees]

11 minutes ago, Bricriu said:

Ground temperature is too warm, perhaps. Is the snow heavy there? 

Just lightly falling and it's the powdery kind 

[RhHh]

3 minutes ago, Ali1977 said:

I’m Just wondering if on Friday those in the midlands and south of there will actually see their best covering of snow - looks like a few hours of potential 

Keep dreaming. Too mild to the South and West. 

[aggy]

10 minutes ago, alexisj9 said:

What's this chart on, no chance of any snow down here over night and tomorrow, even though a cold front is about to come through from today's low. Tomorrow's low is coming in to far north 

Been watching it and it’s definitely way north 

[Crackerjack]

2 minutes ago, Ali1977 said:

I’m Just wondering if on Friday those in the midlands and south of there will actually see their best covering of snow - looks like a few hours of potential 

Fergie showed the map for Friday and said it’s one to watch as we get a glancing blow of possible snow as it pulls away east I did well here south of you Ali today and I drove around pm but ran out of the snow up on the common above Nailsworth. I was going to venture up your way but would have run out of time & light. Did you get much today Ali? 

[Crackerjack]

2 minutes ago, RhHh said:

Keep dreaming. Too mild to the South and West. 

There’s every chance we will get more snow here Friday am, from the cold surging back around from the departing low pressure. Really enjoying this spell here I must admit. 

[*Stormforce~beka*]

39 minutes ago, saintkip said:

5 cm in Basingstoke, I’d say that’s a pretty good effort for March, hasn’t  melted either even thought it’s been raining all afternoon/evening 

1cm to 1inch in places here. All gone now 

[Ali1977]

4 minutes ago, Crackerjack said:

Fergie showed the map for Friday and said it’s one to watch as we get a glancing blow of possible snow as it pulls away east I did well here south of you Ali today and I drove around pm but ran out of the snow up on the common above Nailsworth. I was going to venture up your way but would have run out of time & light. Did you get much today Ali? 

Currently we’ve about 4cm out there I guess, snowed most the day but only really started lying around 1630!! That’s it for the night, maybe a bit tomorrow morning before it’s washed away!! Then all eyes on Fri !! 
 

Then I’ll be finally ready for summer heat !! 

[MJB]

Heaviest snow of the day had 30 minutes of persistent snow , suddenly covered all the side roads and paths 

[PsychedelicTony]

46 minutes ago, 38.7°C said:

Absolutely appalling here in Cheshire. Been snowing for 5 hours and it's still not even sticking. Anyone know what's going on? 

Had about 8hrs of non settling snow in North Wales. I bet some locations near have had longer. 

[MJB]

Moderate snow falling again , all roads now white , no great depths but nice to see

[stewfox]

3cm or 4cm of settled snow. Won't be using my hot tub for a while

 

Edited March 8, 2023 by stewfox

[Weegaz]

The count down is well and turley on to tomorrow’s feature arriving, will it won’t it snow 

For my location just outside Belfast it’s knife edge based on current modelling

[aggy]

Just now, Weegaz said:

The count down is well and turley on to tomorrow’s feature arriving, will it won’t it snow 

For my location just outside Belfast it’s knife edge based on current modelling

It’s currently way north than forecasts I think you will be grand