Model Output Discussion - Snow Watch limited edition

[That ECM]

2 minutes ago, Tim Bland said:

Incredibly inaccurate snow depth chart from GFS (current time )  anyone got these depths in these areas ? Welsh hills perhaps others look way off 

Very accurate, says nothing, got nothing.

[Matt Jones]

1 hour ago, Beanz said:

Mid-March, standard.  Was anybody really expecting it to be any different…??  

This was never going to be more than a case of watching a few flakes fall, enjoy it for a few hours and back to normal the next day.  

 

Let's be honest it's poor but it's made a better job than most of the winter, we are just entering the 2nd quarter of March it is perfectly capable of delivering the goods given decent synoptics. Probably had my 2nd deepest snowfall since moving to my location in 2004 at Easter only beaten by December 2010. 

[Allseasons-Si]

6 minutes ago, Tim Bland said:

Incredibly inaccurate snow depth chart from GFS (current time )  anyone got these depths in these areas ? Welsh hills perhaps others look way off 

Around 1-2cm's here currently

Just got in from work and wow,...i didn't expect this snowfall today and much further north than suggested yesterday

still snowing and settling now and it looks on for a few hours yet,..ppn on the increase from the E/SE

and an amber warning for tomorrow into Friday,...it's about freaking time we hit the jackpot

should be fun coming home from work tomorrow afternoon to test my new mokka 4x4 out

[Mark wheeler]

Ukmo also has the cold surging back south on FrIday . Both GFS and ukmo warm up afterwards looking like rain preceded by snow coming in to the west . Then another dip in temps from the north after that. Plenty going on.

Edited March 8, 2023 by Mark wheeler

[Bartlett High]

6 minutes ago, Tim Bland said:

Incredibly inaccurate snow depth chart from GFS (current time )  anyone got these depths in these areas ? Welsh hills perhaps others look way off 

Spot on I'd say.

 

 

[jaz]

7 minutes ago, Tim Bland said:

Incredibly inaccurate snow depth chart from GFS (current time )  anyone got these depths in these areas ? Welsh hills perhaps others look way off 

Where I am in Pensford we had 7cm at midday before the snow turned to rain, down to about 3cm in a rapid thaw

[Stuie]

18 minutes ago, Stuie said:

12z GEFS moves the boundary slightly  more South than the 6z (extent of mild moving in at 13:00)

Small  detail but it`s there.

       12z - 

UKMO even slightly more South than GEFS and doubt it will make a great difference, maybe just a touch slower with the LP.

[MATTWOLVES 3]

34 minutes ago, bluearmy said:

I think that warning is high ground related Matt but you’ve got some decent elevation so you may be in the hunt 

Cheers Nick..I think ground above 100 metres looking better and obviously the higher one goes the better. I think this system could pack more punch than today's...which seemed to become fragmented.

Also perhaps a chance of it pulling back South again which I hope could bring a few other locations into the mix. I wouldn't be suprised to see the warnings revised again come Thursday noon.

 

[Bricriu]

I still don't know if my area is going to hit the jackpot on Thursday , some models say yes, others have places further south as the sweet spot. 

Edited March 8, 2023 by Bricriu

[Mark wheeler]

Gem is also broadly the same for Friday with the cold surging south behind the front . It warms up again only for a repeat a few days later . Very interesting times . This looks a theme now backed by mogreps 6z

 

apologies can't seem to get the charts in right order.

Edited March 8, 2023 by Mark wheeler

[Bricriu]

9 minutes ago, Mark wheeler said:

Ukmo also has the cold surging back south on FrIday . Both GFS and ukmo warm up afterwards looking like rain preceded by snow coming in to the west . Then another dip in temps from the north after that. Plenty going on.

Being greedy. I would prefer if it did not warm up at all. Still if it's brief and we get another colder turn next week that will do. With one slight upgrade : a red warning with snow for all 

[Allseasons-Si]

WOW that soon settled,...the road and paths was clear 5 mins before this...

 

 

[Updated_Weather]

Just now, Mark wheeler said:

Gem is also broadly the same for Friday with the cold surging south behind the front . It warms up again only for a repeat a few days later . Very interesting times . This looks a theme now backed by mogreps 6z

If we get any precipitation with that. Might be quite good and less marginal as we won't have the milder air complication

[MP-R]

21 minutes ago, Tim Bland said:

Incredibly inaccurate snow depth chart from GFS (current time )  anyone got these depths in these areas ? Welsh hills perhaps others look way off 

Different surfaces had different amounts in my area but the deepest I measured was 5cm. Tended to be nearer 2-4cm on the grass. Melted so quickly though as soon as it stopped snowing.

[Tim Bland]

I’m afraid it’s all been a bit more marginal than models showed , especialy for central / southern areasDowngrades on snow depth now for example Arome below for 7am tomorrow (12z Vs 06z) 

[Bricriu]

5 minutes ago, Tim Bland said:

I’m afraid it’s all been a bit more marginal than models showed , especialy for central / southern areasDowngrades on snow depth now for example Arome below for 7am tomorrow (12z Vs 06z) 

This is most likely bad news for tomorrow then. The warm ground temperatures won't help matters either. 

[KTtom]

42 minutes ago, Bricriu said:

This is most likely bad news for tomorrow then. The warm ground temperatures won't help matters either. 

Its been 1c here today, snow on and off all day, some very heavy snow just moved through but barely settled. Im thinking a high ground event (settling snow) tomorrow for wales, midlands,  south.

Edited March 8, 2023 by KTtom

[bazookabob]

Whilst tomorrow's Amber warning does look at first glance to be focused on the Pennine chain, ofr here in Yorkshire it actually covers everywhere west of the A1 / Vale of York which includes a lot of major population centres, notably Leeds, Sheffield, Bradford and Wakefield to name a few. Even the yellow warning mentioned 5-10cm for this areas before the Amber was issued. I would suggest the M62 through West Yorkshire will be even more horrific tomorrow evening than usual! 

[chapmanslade]

45 minutes ago, Tim Bland said:

Incredibly inaccurate snow depth chart from GFS (current time )  anyone got these depths in these areas ? Welsh hills perhaps others look way off 

Yes, here in wilts it is probably an underestimate - 10cm earlier. So no - not incredibly inaccurate, more like incredibly accurate!

[Stuie]

12z fax has a nudge South on the LP tomorrow compared to 0z. A flatter more Easterly direction also.

Edited March 8, 2023 by Stuie

[Crackerjack]

45 minutes ago, Tim Bland said:

Incredibly inaccurate snow depth chart from GFS (current time )  anyone got these depths in these areas ? Welsh hills perhaps others look way off 

My weather station is in Yate near Bristol 225asl and we had 7cm and been snowing virtually all day though wet snow so not adding to depth. I’ve driven around all pm and I ran out of snow north of Stroud. Sweet spot was M4 junction 18 up the road from me where there is at least 8-10cm and that was still there an hour ago. So the chart was accurate for my area anyhow. 

[GokouD]

51 minutes ago, Tim Bland said:

Incredibly inaccurate snow depth chart from GFS (current time )  anyone got these depths in these areas ? Welsh hills perhaps others look way off 

Bang on for me, shows just a dusting, got just a dusting  Hopefully a bit more tonight...

[Blizzardof82]

5 minutes ago, Crackerjack said:

My weather station is in Yate near Bristol 225asl and we had 7cm and been snowing virtually all day though wet snow so not adding to depth. I’ve driven around all pm and I ran out of snow north of Stroud. Sweet spot was M4 junction 18 up the road from me where there is at least 8-10cm and that was still there an hour ago. So the chart was accurate for my area anyhow. 

Have to say pretty accurate for me just down road in Pukcklechurch.

[alexisj9]

55 minutes ago, Tim Bland said:

Incredibly inaccurate snow depth chart from GFS (current time )  anyone got these depths in these areas ? Welsh hills perhaps others look way off 

We'll it's accurate for east kent

[Tim Bland]

Trying it’s best to settle now just need heavier pulses. I’m about 110m asl though