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Model Output Discussion - Snow Watch limited edition

Paul

By Paul
in Forecast Model Discussion

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Paul
Message added by Paul,

This snow watch thread is an extension of the usual model discussion for those who want to chat about the snow chances over the coming days. For more general model discussion, please use the Models, models and more models thread, which also includes the model highlights.

As usual, for more general weather chat, moans and ramps, please head over to the Spring chat thread.

Be kind -- Stay on topic -- Share your knowledge -- Be polite -- Be honest -- Be tolerant -- Be family-friendly

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Posted by Paul,

Right then - here we go with a limited 'Snow Watch' edition of the Model Discussion thread. If you want to track the models / radar etc with a view on what the snow chances are wherever you may be in the country, this is the thread.  We realise this isn't for everyone though, which is why we also have the models, models and more models thread available too - which will be reserved for more general model discussion outside of the realms of 'is it going to snow in x, y or z'. The models

Thread info - please read

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Ali1977 Maestro

Ali1977

Posted
  • Location: North East Cotswolds, 232m, 761feet ASL
  • Location: North East Cotswolds, 232m, 761feet ASL
Posted

Latest arpege till 0300 tomorrow 

Could contain: Chart, Plot, Map, Atlas, Diagram, Outdoors, Plant, Rainforest, Tree, Vegetation

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Drifter Rising Star

Drifter

Posted
  • Location: North east Hampshire
  • Location: North east Hampshire
Posted

Well if GFS is to be believed, plenty more snow chances to come this month. 
Wouldn’t surprise me if a mid month ‘mini Beast’ pops up soon

spacer.png

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Purga Accomplished

Purga

Posted
  • Location: West Sussex
  • Weather Preferences: Extreme cold & snow
  • Location: West Sussex
Posted

Hopefully another crack of the whip after the current rather lack lustre affair! 😑

Could contain: Chart, Plot, Map, Nature, OutdoorsCould contain: Art, Modern Art, Chart, Plot, Outdoors, Nature

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PiscesStar Rising Star

PiscesStar

Posted
  • Location: Herne Bay Kent
  • Location: Herne Bay Kent
Posted
Just now, Drifter said:

Well if GFS is to be believed, plenty more snow chances to come this month. 
Wouldn’t surprise me if a mid month ‘mini Beast’ pops up soon

spacer.png

I was thinking that as a result of the second mini warming?!?! 🥰 🥰 🥰 

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MJB Accomplished

MJB

Posted
  • Location: Banbury
  • Weather Preferences: Deep Deep Snow causing chaos
  • Location: Banbury
Posted
3 minutes ago, Ali1977 said:

Latest arpege till 0300 tomorrow 

Could contain: Chart, Plot, Map, Atlas, Diagram, Outdoors, Plant, Rainforest, Tree, Vegetation

This evenings attack must be well organised looking at that 

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claret047 Accomplished

claret047

Posted
  • Location: Springfield, Chelmsford, Essex 30Mtr ASL
  • Weather Preferences: snowy or sunny but not too hot!
  • Location: Springfield, Chelmsford, Essex 30Mtr ASL
Posted
11 minutes ago, Updated_Weather said:

How do you think Colchester may do from this evening?

Are they playing? Seriously you are that bit further north than us, although a bit nearer to the coast, but you could well be OK. It is a matter of wait and see as it appears to be all so finely balanced.

Friday I am really interested as my wife and i are driving up to Huntingdon in the afternoon and there is great uncertainty as to how far north the milder air will travel.

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Battleground Snow Maestro

Battleground Snow

Posted
  • Location: Coventry
  • Location: Coventry
Posted
8 minutes ago, sheikhy said:

Question is it still good for thursday/friday?!!👀

It is, it did shift about 20 miles North tho,

0 line running through Leicester!

I'm a bit dubious of it showing snow south of this line in positive uppers?

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jmp223 Enthusiast

jmp223

Posted
  • Location: Glasgow
  • Location: Glasgow
Posted (edited)
28 minutes ago, mountain shadow said:

Perhaps parts of Scotland that are missing out this week, get the action next week..

Could contain: Chart, Plot, Map, Atlas, Diagram

I'd love that to verify! Glasgow is cold, minima of -6 last night but completely dry.  So far it's looking like a repeat of the cold snap of December--zero precipitation.

And the scatter on the ens. is crazy for the latter half of the period, does this have anything to do with the 2nd SSW? Or have the models managed to integrate it into their computations now and is this simply attributable to other factors?

Could contain: Chart, Plot

Edited by jmp223
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Ali1977 Maestro

Ali1977

Posted
  • Location: North East Cotswolds, 232m, 761feet ASL
  • Location: North East Cotswolds, 232m, 761feet ASL
Posted

Im the south it’s still good thurs morning, then it heads north, but then it’s really Good Friday morning too - I imagine quite a melt between then though 

Could contain: Chart, Plot, Map, Atlas, Diagram, Nature, Outdoors, Sea, Water

Could contain: Chart, Plot, Map, Nature, Outdoors, Atlas, Diagram, Sea, Water

Just now, Ali1977 said:

Im the south it’s still good thurs morning, then it heads north, but then it’s really Good Friday morning too - I imagine quite a melt between then though 

Could contain: Chart, Plot, Map, Atlas, Diagram, Nature, Outdoors, Sea, Water

Could contain: Chart, Plot, Map, Nature, Outdoors, Atlas, Diagram, Sea, Water

The arome is similar thurs morning with snow heavy, and quite far south 

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feb1991blizzard Maestro

feb1991blizzard

Posted
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
  • Weather Preferences: Heavy disruptive snowfall.
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
Posted
21 minutes ago, Drifter said:

Well if GFS is to be believed, plenty more snow chances to come this month. 
Wouldn’t surprise me if a mid month ‘mini Beast’ pops up soon

 

Here goes.

Could contain: Art, Outdoors, Chart, Plot, Accessories

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seabreeze86 Accomplished

seabreeze86

Posted
  • Location: redcar,cleveland
  • Weather Preferences: Winter cold,snow and frost. Summer hot and thundery
  • Location: redcar,cleveland
Posted

I have never seen such scatter at such a short range 

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mb018538 Maestro

mb018538

Posted
  • Location: Cambridge, UK
  • Weather Preferences: Summer > Spring > Winter > Autumn :-)
  • Location: Cambridge, UK
Posted

spacer.pngspacer.png

Looks like the dry start to the year will soon be a distant memory, as we once again go from bone dry to soaking wet. The dry/wet/dry/wet pattern looks like repeating once more.

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mhielte Enthusiast

mhielte

Posted
  • Location: Barnsley
  • Weather Preferences: Thunderstorms
  • Location: Barnsley
Posted
26 minutes ago, Battleground Snow said:

It is, it did shift about 20 miles North tho,

0 line running through Leicester!

I'm a bit dubious of it showing snow south of this line in positive uppers?

Could contain: Chart, Plot, Map, Atlas, Diagram, Plant, Vegetation

Could contain: Chart, Plot, Map, Atlas, Diagram, Blackboard

Ties in with Thursday's Met Office warning text with areas in the south of the warning zone occasionally seeing sleet or rain, especially at lower elevations. It'll be a fluid situation for sure!

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mhielte Enthusiast

mhielte

Posted
  • Location: Barnsley
  • Weather Preferences: Thunderstorms
  • Location: Barnsley
Posted
27 minutes ago, Ali1977 said:

Im the south it’s still good thurs morning, then it heads north, but then it’s really Good Friday morning too - I imagine quite a melt between then though 

Could contain: Chart, Plot, Map, Atlas, Diagram, Nature, Outdoors, Sea, Water

Could contain: Chart, Plot, Map, Nature, Outdoors, Atlas, Diagram, Sea, Water

The arome is similar thurs morning with snow heavy, and quite far south 

Could contain: Chart, Plot, Map, Atlas, Diagram, Nature, Outdoors, Sea, Water

Would think as the system pushes northwards that those in the snow at first - so the south - would see it turn back to rain as the milder air heads in. Could be a tricky commute though!

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chapmanslade Community Regular

chapmanslade

Posted
  • Location: Chapmanslade, Wiltshire + Charente, France
  • Location: Chapmanslade, Wiltshire + Charente, France
Posted
36 minutes ago, Battleground Snow said:

It is, it did shift about 20 miles North tho,

0 line running through Leicester!

I'm a bit dubious of it showing snow south of this line in positive uppers?

Could contain: Chart, Plot, Map, Atlas, Diagram, Plant, Vegetation

Could contain: Chart, Plot, Map, Atlas, Diagram, Blackboard

They will not be positive uppers in the south when the snow is falling. The milder air sweeps in later.

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BLAST FROM THE PAST Maestro

BLAST FROM THE PAST

Posted
  • Location: Redhill, Surrey
  • Weather Preferences: Southerly tracking LPs, heavy snow. Also 25c and calm
  • Location: Redhill, Surrey
Posted
30 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:

Here goes.

Could contain: Art, Outdoors, Chart, Plot, Accessories

Brutal for time of year and not at all unrealistic.  Let’s see if the GFS 00z and now 06z are on to the ‘general’ anticipated pattern and gathers momentum over the coming days.

 

BFTP

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DJ Fart Aficionado

DJ Fart

Posted
  • Location: Great Horkesley, Essex
  • Weather Preferences: Snow
  • Location: Great Horkesley, Essex
Posted
1 hour ago, Updated_Weather said:

How do you think Colchester may do from this evening?

I think our proximity to the coast is scuppering us. I expect cold rain or a sleety mix at best. 

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minus10 Veteran

minus10

Posted
  • Location: Welwyn Garden City
  • Weather Preferences: Seasonal and interesting weather including summer storms and winter snow
  • Location: Welwyn Garden City
Posted
1 hour ago, Tim Bland said:

Here’s Friday morning on 06z in WX format which some may prefer 

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Could contain: Chart, Plot, Map, Nature, Outdoors, Atlas, Diagram, Plant, Vegetation, Purple

Im not sure the scots will like being moved to North Wales and the Irish Sea..🤣

Gfes 6z..

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...that is quite a cold signal from 14th !!

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Paul Maestro

Paul

Posted
  • Location: Aviemore
  • Location: Aviemore
  • Author
Posted

Just as a reminder and for those who may not have seen it in action. Please use the insightful reaction on the posts you think are the most informative and insightful, as they'll then be copied over to the models, models, models thread, which is also acting as the model highlights thread. 

This way, those informative posts will be kept for ongoing reading by others in the community in a less fast-paced thread - crowdsourced highlights 🙂

If you're wondering which one the informative reaction is, it's this one:

Could contain: Light, Lightbulb, Disk

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Updated_Weather Seasoned

Updated_Weather

Posted
  • Location: Essex, UK
  • Location: Essex, UK
Posted
21 minutes ago, DJ Fart said:

I think our proximity to the coast is scuppering us. I expect cold rain or a sleety mix at best. 

I don't know to be honest. I am a bit further west than Colchester - But it has been on and off today with flurries, so you never know!

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Jackski4 Seasoned

Jackski4

Posted
  • Location: Runcorn
  • Weather Preferences: SNOWWWWWWWW
  • Location: Runcorn
Posted

Am I right in thinking the further south the 0C isotherm is, the further south the snow will be instead of rain / sleet ?

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The Northern Ramper Accomplished

The Northern Ramper

Posted
  • Location: Newhey, Lancashire ( 165m a/s/l )
  • Weather Preferences: Snow
  • Location: Newhey, Lancashire ( 165m a/s/l )
Posted
2 hours ago, Stuie said:

Newcastle in the SOUTH East could take a battering lol

You lot down there have been wishing the snow south so much that you’ve managed to drag City’s with it. 🙂

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