Model Output Discussion - Snow Watch limited edition

[Updated_Weather]

Just now, nick sussex said:

More trough disruption coming at T180 hrs . Very good  so far from the GFS 06 hrs run if you like cold .

How do you think Colchester may do from this evening?

[Ali1977]

Latest arpege till 0300 tomorrow 

[Drifter]

Well if GFS is to be believed, plenty more snow chances to come this month. 
Wouldn’t surprise me if a mid month ‘mini Beast’ pops up soon

[Purga]

Hopefully another crack of the whip after the current rather lack lustre affair!

[PiscesStar]

Just now, Drifter said:

Well if GFS is to be believed, plenty more snow chances to come this month. 
Wouldn’t surprise me if a mid month ‘mini Beast’ pops up soon

I was thinking that as a result of the second mini warming?!?!  

[MJB]

3 minutes ago, Ali1977 said:

Latest arpege till 0300 tomorrow 

This evenings attack must be well organised looking at that 

[sheikhy]

9 minutes ago, Ali1977 said:

Latest arpege till 0300 tomorrow 

Question is it still good for thursday/friday?!!

[claret047]

11 minutes ago, Updated_Weather said:

How do you think Colchester may do from this evening?

Are they playing? Seriously you are that bit further north than us, although a bit nearer to the coast, but you could well be OK. It is a matter of wait and see as it appears to be all so finely balanced.

Friday I am really interested as my wife and i are driving up to Huntingdon in the afternoon and there is great uncertainty as to how far north the milder air will travel.

[Battleground Snow]

8 minutes ago, sheikhy said:

Question is it still good for thursday/friday?!!

It is, it did shift about 20 miles North tho,

0 line running through Leicester!

I'm a bit dubious of it showing snow south of this line in positive uppers?

[jmp223]

28 minutes ago, mountain shadow said:

Perhaps parts of Scotland that are missing out this week, get the action next week..

I'd love that to verify! Glasgow is cold, minima of -6 last night but completely dry.  So far it's looking like a repeat of the cold snap of December--zero precipitation.

And the scatter on the ens. is crazy for the latter half of the period, does this have anything to do with the 2nd SSW? Or have the models managed to integrate it into their computations now and is this simply attributable to other factors?

Edited March 8, 2023 by jmp223
Typo

[Ali1977]

Im the south it’s still good thurs morning, then it heads north, but then it’s really Good Friday morning too - I imagine quite a melt between then though 

Just now, Ali1977 said:

Im the south it’s still good thurs morning, then it heads north, but then it’s really Good Friday morning too - I imagine quite a melt between then though 

The arome is similar thurs morning with snow heavy, and quite far south 

[feb1991blizzard]

21 minutes ago, Drifter said:

Well if GFS is to be believed, plenty more snow chances to come this month. 
Wouldn’t surprise me if a mid month ‘mini Beast’ pops up soon

 

Here goes.

[Updated_Weather]

Just now, feb1991blizzard said:

Here goes.

Maybe playing around with that second warming?

[seabreeze86]

I have never seen such scatter at such a short range 

[mb018538]

Looks like the dry start to the year will soon be a distant memory, as we once again go from bone dry to soaking wet. The dry/wet/dry/wet pattern looks like repeating once more.

[mhielte]

26 minutes ago, Battleground Snow said:

It is, it did shift about 20 miles North tho,

0 line running through Leicester!

I'm a bit dubious of it showing snow south of this line in positive uppers?

Ties in with Thursday's Met Office warning text with areas in the south of the warning zone occasionally seeing sleet or rain, especially at lower elevations. It'll be a fluid situation for sure!

[mhielte]

27 minutes ago, Ali1977 said:

Im the south it’s still good thurs morning, then it heads north, but then it’s really Good Friday morning too - I imagine quite a melt between then though 

The arome is similar thurs morning with snow heavy, and quite far south 

Would think as the system pushes northwards that those in the snow at first - so the south - would see it turn back to rain as the milder air heads in. Could be a tricky commute though!

[chapmanslade]

36 minutes ago, Battleground Snow said:

It is, it did shift about 20 miles North tho,

0 line running through Leicester!

I'm a bit dubious of it showing snow south of this line in positive uppers?

They will not be positive uppers in the south when the snow is falling. The milder air sweeps in later.

[BLAST FROM THE PAST]

30 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:

Here goes.

Brutal for time of year and not at all unrealistic.  Let’s see if the GFS 00z and now 06z are on to the ‘general’ anticipated pattern and gathers momentum over the coming days.

 

BFTP

[DJ Fart]

1 hour ago, Updated_Weather said:

How do you think Colchester may do from this evening?

I think our proximity to the coast is scuppering us. I expect cold rain or a sleety mix at best. 

[minus10]

1 hour ago, Tim Bland said:

Here’s Friday morning on 06z in WX format which some may prefer 

Im not sure the scots will like being moved to North Wales and the Irish Sea..

Gfes 6z..

...that is quite a cold signal from 14th !!

[Paul]

Just as a reminder and for those who may not have seen it in action. Please use the insightful reaction on the posts you think are the most informative and insightful, as they'll then be copied over to the models, models, models thread, which is also acting as the model highlights thread. 

This way, those informative posts will be kept for ongoing reading by others in the community in a less fast-paced thread - crowdsourced highlights

If you're wondering which one the informative reaction is, it's this one:

[Updated_Weather]

21 minutes ago, DJ Fart said:

I think our proximity to the coast is scuppering us. I expect cold rain or a sleety mix at best. 

I don't know to be honest. I am a bit further west than Colchester - But it has been on and off today with flurries, so you never know!

[Jackski4]

Am I right in thinking the further south the 0C isotherm is, the further south the snow will be instead of rain / sleet ?

[The Northern Ramper]

2 hours ago, Stuie said:

Newcastle in the SOUTH East could take a battering lol

You lot down there have been wishing the snow south so much that you’ve managed to drag City’s with it.