Model Output Discussion - Snow Watch limited edition

[Purga]

6 minutes ago, Updated_Weather said:

ECM12z barely brings in that mild air. Pulls down that cold air once again.

Interesting!

 

Really?

[Updated_Weather]

Just now, Purga said:

Really?

That's at 96hrs. I wasn't talking about then.

[I remember Atlantic 252]

My location looks iffy, decent snow now, surfaces turning white, tomorrows front could start as snow, then turning less cold with a thaw, then more snow possible Fri AM as cold heads back south

2 minutes ago, Purga said:

Really?

Shorts and vests for Stafford half Marathon! that looks like warmest day of year so far

[WelshSnow]

1 minute ago, I remember Atlantic 252 said:

My location looks iffy, decent snow now, surfaces turning white, tomorrows front could start as snow, then turning less cold with a thaw, then more snow possible Fri AM as cold heads back south

Why is that iffy?

[TheOgre]

Starting to settle on grass and cars now the sun has set.

[Rob 79812010]

11 minutes ago, WelshSnow said:

Why is that iffy?

I'd take that where I am!!!

[Updated_Weather]

ECM12z defiantly a wild swing back into cold arctic air by Monday.. Similar to GEM12z. 

[stripeyfox]

been snowing mostly lightly all afternoon here but not settling (yet).

Not even enough for teachers to get the day off! 

[Stuie]

Fair chance it could snow here on and off all the way until mid morning tomorrow before rain.

 

Edited March 8, 2023 by Stuie

[Kentspur]

52 minutes ago, MATTWOLVES 3 said:

Snow is coming down now here and starting to settle..love it.

Mmmm widespread snow on Friday from the Beeb! You just know meteogroup are gonna be desperate to get one over on the met office

Warnings for here and the North tomorrow..but this ain't a done deal as we could start pulling the feature back into Friday with another injection  of colder air.

Expect further warnings to pop up over the 24hrs..to all those who've got it...fair play and enjoy..to those still waiting...theres no fat lady singing just yet..your still in the game.

Come onnnn  winter...one last horrrrraahhhh 

I really hope that moves further south for us snow starved low-lying areas with nothing but a slush fest so far

[Stuie]

2 minutes ago, Kentspur said:

I really hope that moves further south for us snow starved low-lying areas with nothing but a slush fest so far

Friday your best bet, not even sure if it will fizzle out and be N of me. Hope you see something mate. Suppose it`s the mare of modelling a LP system even at short range.

[Stuie]

Friday snow for EA/South is a bit sketchy regarding anything left in the tank.  @Tim Bland mentioned earlier whether that would be the case.

The LP tomorrow starts off with a 975 core and by Friday lunch it is up to 990 by the time it moves into the N sea.

 

[Tim Bland]

37 minutes ago, Updated_Weather said:

ECM12z defiantly a wild swing back into cold arctic air by Monday.. Similar to GEM12z. 

Very temporary though back to average or slightly mild by midweek. Not seeing much in the way of proper snow south of midlands and even northern areas will struggle to see much away from high ground after tomorrow / Friday morning.  This has been a decent snap for falling snow but nothing memorable imo 

[Anthony Burden]

Evening all,A very interesting GEM this evening very wintery on going March out to Ten days out.Meanwhile snow for most in the south now dying out ready for a short milder spell,but for how long is the question.

[Wingman Blue]

The weather, like the models, is all over the place. I guess the models are trying to play whack-a-mole and not having much luck.

Going forward the wind, as always, will turn borderline snow into icy drifts but as always, it’s location, location, location.

I would say it will be the end of the week before the models get a handle on this, but in the meantime, enjoy!

[Stuie]

Hmm, this was `real time data` 12 hrs ago from NCEP.

This is now.

That isn`t much travel in 12 hrs of the LP`s considering the jet is pretty strong.

EDIT: Saying that, the LP`s are a step ahead of the 12z which makes sense if you take 12z as 12 o`clock.

EDIT 2:  ok, models are always 1 step behind current current outlook, will think differently from now on. 

Edited March 8, 2023 by Stuie

[I remember Atlantic 252]

coming down well here, but definitely better at @sheikhy's place, under green

[Tim Bland]

19 minutes ago, Anthony Burden said:

Evening all,A very interesting GEM this evening very wintery on going March out to Ten days out.Meanwhile snow for most in the south now dying out ready for a short milder spell,but for how long is the question.

Just to add some perspective..  almost all models have no accumulating snow for midlands south and in the north it’s high ground only after Friday. This is the ECM for your area next 10 days and most models are similar 

[I remember Atlantic 252]

4 minutes ago, Snowy L said:

Delete please 

same with mine above, thought I was in Midlands thread

[Lincstim]

Scunny, North Lincs had the occasional snow flurry today. Nothing crazy but it's nice to see some white stuff falling from the sky.

Tomorrow looks questionable for this region. Some models have this location on the cusp of snow. Some just rain with a greater potential late in to Thursday and early hours Friday. 

I'd love a snow day / night but just get the feeling it will be wet and cold .... again .

 

[RhHh]

1 hour ago, Updated_Weather said:

ECM12z barely brings in that mild air. Pulls down that cold air once again.

Interesting!

 

Well it's mild here 

[Catacol]

39 minutes ago, Kentspur said:

I really hope that moves further south for us snow starved low-lying areas with nothing but a slush fest so far

It's panning out pretty much as expected so far. For many - most? - it is a wet mix of sleet and snow that is either not settling at all or will settle and melt within hours. Lots of warm sectors mixed in, only at height will there be any sustained snow and these are areas that expect snow most years. Nothing especially remarkable therefore though I must admit there were some flakes falling outside at work at around 4pm and watching them fall made me smile. I was in a meeting at the time and one member said my face turned all boyish. Ha - right - boyish at my age. But that's how snow makes me feel tbh.

A very standard westerly pattern in an amplified pattern forecast for the foreseeable once this snow snap passes.

Azores high in place, cold air still in the mix via the Scandy trough and systems lining up on the atlantic. Expect some frontal rain in phases followed by colder back edge scenarios that will bring very short term sleety spells. Cold to milder and back to cold again. As we head into the final third of the month I would expect to see some northern blocking options appear once again as impacts of the high amplitude MJO passage work their way through the circulation but too late in the season to create anything of note.

Enjoy this week and whatever can be gleaned at the weekend. 

[BLAST FROM THE PAST]

9 minutes ago, Tim Bland said:

Just to add some perspective..  almost all models have no accumulating snow for midlands south and in the north it’s high ground only after Friday. This is the ECM for your area next 10 days and most models are similar 

Yep we can ‘trust’ that.  Cold is here and digging in.  Lots more to come….coldest UK March night in 13 years last night…who’d have thought?
 

BFTP

6 minutes ago, RhHh said:

Well it's mild here 

2c isn’t mild

 BFTP

[Stuie]

12 minutes ago, I remember Atlantic 252 said:

same with mine above, thought I was in Midlands thread

Hit the 3 dots on the right and select hide (to delete)

[MATTWOLVES 3]

Mogreps ens show yet another dip early next week,so potentially further wintry conditions can't be ruled out! 

Check out the far NE..it never really warms up..so the cold air continues to lurk like long time members on here who never post

The saga continues. You just wait til EQBO next winter..im telling ya now..make the most of this Summer.