Model Output Discussion - Snow Watch limited edition

[PsychedelicTony]

2 minutes ago, Weegaz said:

The count down is well and turley on to tomorrow’s feature arriving, will it won’t it snow 

For my location just outside Belfast it’s knife edge based on current modelling

Thanks for that because I've been struggling to see where this heavy precipitation is coming from. 

Been looking too far South West. 

 

[Weegaz]

Just now, PsychedelicTony said:

Thanks for that because I've been struggling to see where this heavy precipitation is coming from. 

Been looking too far South West. 

 

With Sat24 you can watch and track movements on a wide scale

[kold weather]

1 hour ago, Tim Bland said:

Lots of southern and central areas were forecast a decent snow depth today / tonight,  but measurable snow was limited / isolated. Models didn’t handle it well at all. Luton for example was forecast to have between 5 & 10cm right now depending on which model you looked at… it actually has 1cm .   Hope tomorrow is better for northern members

I think several on here did warn this afternoon snow might struggle to settle until later in the evening. I remember being a little bemused when the Met Office made so little of the morning front and focused almost exclusively on the 2nd system when that one always felt more iffy due to time of day, etc.

[brabs69]

12 minutes ago, stewfox said:

3cm or 4cm of settled snow. Won't be using my hot tub for a while

 

I'm not a million miles from you (West Haddon) same here 3-4cm maybe more.

[Bats32]

Tomorrow's low does look like it's heading a lot further north than modelled. Hmmm.

[MJB]

Looking at the radar it really is a fragmented area of ppn , yet when you see the forecasts on TV they paint a much different picture

[damianslaw]

A couple of flakes of dandruff has been my lot today - despite the radar showing constant light snow since half 5... fingers crossed tomorrow will deliver a decent cover here. 

[phil nw.]

It seems a fair number of Midland members have done ok since early evening as the snow started to settle.

Still snowing here with a decent covering.

Nice to get at least one event before it finally warms up.

 

[damianslaw]

Tomorrow has the makings of one of those classic snowfalls we used to see in an average winter but nowadays have become a rarity. Whilst arriving late in the season, such features can certainly deliver the snowy goods to the lucky few.. 

We've seen very few battleground scenarios in recent years, namely because when the atlantic has ruled the roost it has tended to be associated with very mild tropical maritime air and limited cold air in advance. Colder conditions have tended to be associated with much drier air / anticylonic and we have relied on convective activity rather than frontal for snowfall. Winter 20-21 had its moments but fronts were often weaker with no marked mild/cold boundary.

I'm looking forward to tomorrow whatever it brings here, someone will see a significant snowfall, possibly biggest totals for some places since the Beast from the East/Storm Emma such has been the paucity of heavy snow since.

[TomB]

1 hour ago, Snowonder said:

Can anyone in Bedford area confirm thunder snow. I’m sure I saw lightning and a rumble!

I'm in the Ickwell/Northill area and haven't heard that so far.

[Martz86]

Seems precip has been dieing off since about 9pm as it gradually moves eastwards, may still get the odd flurry during the night before the milder air arrives but I don't think we'll be getting much higher then 4/5c here tomorrow.

 

Edited March 8, 2023 by Martz86

[Hammer50]

What snow .

[Cheshire Freeze]

ICON hinting at more disrupting low drama next week

 

Edited March 9, 2023 by CreweCold

[Cheshire Freeze]

Looks like there’s the potential for a continuing forecaster’s nightmare for the foreseeable…the UK is on the boundary of mild and cold. ICON ends interestingly this morning

[KTtom]

Main band of ppn today has already pushed north and the mild air has well and truly set in here. It wasnt due to arrive till 6am on last nights forecast ...no idea what this means elswhere but its all more progressive than anticipated.

[Guest]

10 minutes ago, KTtom said:

Main band of ppn today has already pushed north and the mild air has well and truly set in here. It wasnt due to arrive till 6am on last nights forecast ...no idea what this means elswhere but its all more progressive than anticipated.

I don't think it means much at all. I know it's a nowcast situation now, but the ARPEGE 00z and UKV 03z are pretty darn close to the current radar, with rain over south and west Wales so it all seems as expected. It's a sharp boundary, remember.

[Ali1977]

Should get another few cm before the melt happens - one last shot tomorrow maybe!! 
 

Looks like those midlands north are in for a great snow day

Edited March 9, 2023 by Ali1977

[minus10]

Is it me or is the latest fax showing a further slight correction south with the low?

...certainly this early morning radar still looks pretty wintery...

[KTtom]

6 minutes ago, minus10 said:

Is it me or is the latest fax showing a further slight correction south with the low?

...certainly this early morning radar still looks pretty wintery...

Not sure of the accuracy of the radar in relation to pp type? Ive just driven inland a couple of miles, even though Im in then'pink zone' its 100% rain and 4.5 degrees.

[Stuie]

See what happens over here in EA soon. Marginal dew point.

[Beanz]

7 hours ago, TomB said:

I'm in the Ickwell/Northill area and haven't heard that so far.

Langford, didn’t notice anything either.  

[johnholmes]

Not got time to post charts just now but will try and do so a bit later, usual 500 mb charts for beyond next 4-6 days. 

Mixed signals over next 24-72 hours from Met, GFS and EC, or so it seems to me. High ground from about Nottingham(Peak) north predicted to get heavy falls next 24 hours, much as Met are saying in their forecasts.

[nick sussex]

Some amazing ensemble spreads for northern Scotland the 12th into the 13th .

A 16 degree difference ! All in relation to how shortwave energy ejects from the upstream low . 

The Euros take that further south . The GFS op further north .

After this its a bit of a mess with the models differing in how far south the jet is . 

The ECM tries to disrupt some energy ese with chances again for some snow on the northern flank of any shortwave energy . 

I think we might be entering another period of model volatility as the lag effects of the MJO impact the outputs .

[MJB]

Bicester has less snow than Banbury but snow falling well now, car park increasingly turning white 

[IDO]

Looking at the next ten days, there is no sign of northern blocking returning, more a westerly flush and classic cold zonal with the north invariably getting colder than the south. Wedges are sent north but are fluid, so there is no sustained block, like the GFS showed on previous runs (GFS moved towards ECM on 0z). The ECM:

After D10 on the GFS, we get a cool, wet trough over the UK for 5+ days, but that looks like an outlier versus the ensembles, which continue with a more zonal flow:

     

^ Pressure charts showing op with little support for UK trough.