Model Output Discussion - 15th March onwards

[danm]

For example, this chart for next Saturday does not look that great for SE Europe. Looks showery to me (maybe others can correct me if I’m wrong). Looks generally good for the UK though:

[sheikhy]

Fantastic ecm tonight!!!!especially toward the end!!high twenties widely!!!

[Howie]

Just now, sheikhy said:

Fantastic ecm tonight!!!!especially toward the end!!high twenties widely!!!

Yes, finally moving the high to the east 

[Mike Poole]

I’m getting the impression over the last few suites of runs that the models are gradually shifting in the 10 day timeframe, from favouring retrogression in the direction of Greenland to the high remaining in situ or moving east.  If we allow for some residual bias and reluctance to fully go with the signal, the eventual T240 outcome could be a little further east.  The GEM looks to be middle ground tonight with the GFS having the high centred slightly west, the ECM slightly east:

Looking at the jet stream, clearer to see on the GEM:

The split seems to have real longevity and that southern arm does not look like shifting.  Things look like they are set to warm up, the question is will any thundery rain come up from the south, and if so, when?  We could be waiting a while longer, I think.

Edited June 2, 2023 by Mike Poole

[danm]

10 minutes ago, Mike Poole said:

I’m getting the impression over the last few suites of runs that the models are gradually shifting in the 10 day timeframe, from favouring retrogression in the direction of Greenland to the high remaining in situ or moving east.  If we allow for some residual bias and reluctance to fully go with the signal, the eventual T240 outcome could be a little further east.  The GEM looks ton be 

Yes definitely looks that way. Could result in the first heatwave of the season so far if it verifies. 

Also from a personal, selfish point of view, the last two frames of the ECM seem to indicate pressure rising over a little over southern Europe as the high moves east and extending south a little? SE Europe potentially showery next Saturday but then pressure rising. Tell me if I’m wrong. 

 

Edited June 2, 2023 by danm

[ChannelThunder]

Starting to tap into some much warmer uppers come the end of the 12z Euro! The chilly winds may soon be a thing of the past. Thunderstorm potential there too 

[mb018538]

Best run of the year so far if warmth is your thing….ECM showing some actual widespread warm weather at day 7-10 as we finally lose that pesky NE wind. It’ll be nice to feel the breeze and not think it’s April any more!

[Man With Beard]

Hi all, amazing spell of blocked weather for the time of year, looking like it will go deep into a third week, must be amazing in Ireland right now under the block.

The ECM being the ECM, though, looks desperate to get a plume going what with low pressure to the SW. There's actually a 30C near Bristol on this chart (we know that would equate to a little bit more...)

[thestixx]

32 minutes ago, Mike Poole said:

I’m getting the impression over the last few suites of runs that the models are gradually shifting in the 10 day timeframe, from favouring retrogression in the direction of Greenland to the high remaining in situ or moving east.  If we allow for some residual bias and reluctance to fully go with the signal, the eventual T240 outcome could be a little further east.  The GEM looks to be middle ground tonight with the GFS having the high centred slightly west, the ECM slightly east:

Looking at the jet stream, clearer to see on the GEM:

The split seems to have real longevity and that southern arm does not look like shifting.  Things look like they are set to warm up, the question is will any thundery rain come up from the south, and if so, when?  We could be waiting a while longer, I think.

Is there a reason for such a strong double jet? Usually in summer there's just one? And if it migrates north we generally benefit from settled weather? I can't recall seeing such a strong jet that south while there's another one north of us

[Sunny76]

On 31/05/2023 at 15:48, Methuselah said:

Eh? I've nae seen meaningful winter snow since 2013! 

It’s still coolish in the mornings and evening. There’s been no proper warmth up until now. 
 

We need a decent hot spell.

[Downburst]

6 minutes ago, Man With Beard said:

Hi all, amazing spell of blocked weather for the time of year, looking like it will go deep into a third week, must be amazing in Ireland right now under the block.

The ECM being the ECM, though, looks desperate to get a plume going what with low pressure to the SW. There's actually a 30C near Bristol on this chart (we know that would equate to a little bit more...)

I picked the right time to take out the bamboo jungle at the back of my garden. It’s been amazing, 22mm rain in May and last two weeks excellent and bone dry, particularly last 10 to 15 days. Although I’m on the east coast it’s not that chilly and back garden is south west facing. Looks like my hair will return to curly if this humid air returns next weekend

[Guest]

1 hour ago, danm said:

For example, this chart for next Saturday does not look that great for SE Europe. Looks showery to me (maybe others can correct me if I’m wrong). Looks generally good for the UK though:

Nowt showery there, dry continental feed. Just very warm and sunny! 

[mb018538]

What a chart this is….can’t say you’d see this too often. The only dry spot in Europe circling the UK!

[danm]

50 minutes ago, Alderc said:

Nowt showery there, dry continental feed. Just very warm and sunny! 

I meant for SE Europe. I’m off to Greece next weekend.

[Mike Poole]

1 hour ago, thestixx said:

Is there a reason for such a strong double jet? Usually in summer there's just one? And if it migrates north we generally benefit from settled weather? I can't recall seeing such a strong jet that south while there's another one north of us

Yes, that’s my understanding, a single jet migrating north, and the Azores ridging towards the UK is the usual fine summer weather scenario.  Us warm and dry and Spain boiling! But it isn’t what we have this year, very interesting setup.

ECM clusters are starting to paint an interesting picture now.  T192-T240:

Cluster 2, which is I think the signal gaining traction, and where I think we are headed, shows a block now east of the UK, ECM op is in this cluster.

T264+:

Cluster 3 here with 15 members shows a continuation of this evolution.  Very interesting to see if this signal, now properly represented, grows in strength.  

[near northampton]

Fascinating output the last few weeks, must be the latest  to reach 25c for many a year the input for Tamara, Cambrian and others has been phenomenal, the R word looks to be receding, the sheer longevity of this high pressure is remarkable 

 

 

[AltonMatthew]

Hiw we looking at the timeframe 10th-18th June based on current output? 
 

lots of mentioning of heat building but off to the norfolk coast and hoping those pesky north sea winds bugger off.

[bluearmy]

 

ECMWF | Charts

CHARTS.ECMWF.INT

 

ec 46 charts now include the new ‘daily’ runs of the 46 day model suite!

we’ll soon have too much data to analyse ! 
 

EDIT: I assume I’ve missed references to it but meteociel has been running the new ec op run as parallel/test option 

WWW.METEOCIEL.FR

---

Meteociel propose le modèle deterministe de ECMWF CEP

 

Edited June 2, 2023 by bluearmy

[Newberryone]

I think Irelands glorious spell may be threatened by greater instability in the atmosphere bringing at the very least an interruption to the bone dry spell we’ve been enjoying here for the last 2-3 weeks. Unlike the 00z the 12z Ecm seems to show much more of an influence with the low to the southwest towards next weekend as the high takes up its new position further to the east. Every likelihood now that Ireland will escape drought like conditions should this low become more of a player over the coming days.

[ANYWEATHER]

Both models show falling pressure by the end of next week. No details, yes , but all the parafanalia about extreme temperatures won’t happen. Rain will be the headline as we move into June . Dry start very wet end

[Man With Beard]

1 hour ago, Mike Poole said:

Yes, that’s my understanding, a single jet migrating north, and the Azores ridging towards the UK is the usual fine summer weather scenario.  Us warm and dry and Spain boiling! But it isn’t what we have this year, very interesting setup.

ECM clusters are starting to paint an interesting picture now.  T192-T240:

Cluster 2, which is I think the signal gaining traction, and where I think we are headed, shows a block now east of the UK, ECM op is in this cluster.

T264+:

Cluster 3 here with 15 members shows a continuation of this evolution.  Very interesting to see if this signal, now properly represented, grows in strength.  

...and cluster 2 in the D11-15 is just a toned down version of cluster 3. Heatwave potential in both those clusters. We'd be potentially up to 30 consecutive dry and sunny days on the south coast if cluster 3 verified.

[Kentspur]

8 hours ago, AltonMatthew said:

Hiw we looking at the timeframe 10th-18th June based on current output? 
 

lots of mentioning of heat building but off to the norfolk coast and hoping those pesky north sea winds bugger off.

No keep it going I'm off to Devon that week dont mind a Northeasterly there haha

 

Joking.

 

hopefully the high ends up east of the UK then we will all be warmer air as per one of yesterday's ECM clusters evolution

Edited June 3, 2023 by Kentspur

[clark3r]

Next weekend looking very warm on gfs

[Mike Poole]

Do I detect a sliver of +14C uppers into the SE on the GEM at T192?

The warm charts are starting to crop up with increasing regularity in the runs now.  The GFS is also very warm this morning.

Edited June 3, 2023 by Mike Poole

[Guest]

8 minutes ago, clark3r said:

Next weekend looking very warm on gfs

The warmer solution is now heavily backed by GFS, GEM, all their ensembles and the UKMO. Just need ECM for the full house now. Chances for a few thunderstorms as well as the cut off low only inches towards us. Given the increasingly dry ground now I would have thought with uppers of 13-15C we should get close to 30C

Also is the 13th June enigma in danger!?