Model Output Discussion - 15th March onwards

[Rain All Night]

ICON not holding back with that low. Poor Ireland!! It stays in pretty much the same spot for about 36 hours while it fills in too!

UKMO not wildly different, GFS on the other hand is losing interest!!

Edited April 6, 2023 by RainAllNight

[Maz]

1 hour ago, RainAllNight said:

ICON not holding back with that low. Poor Ireland!! It stays in pretty much the same spot for about 36 hours while it fills in too!

UKMO not wildly different, GFS on the other hand is losing interest!!

As I mentioned yesterday - low pressure dominated for UK, but not zonal.  It is just that the HP over Scandi is too far NE and the Azores too far SW.  A cool, wet, block.

If it fills in situ, there seems a good chance of pressure rise to N of the LP connecting the two HP areas…and it’s then a good situation if springlike weather is wanted.

[Stuie]

Looking at fine details regarding next week. Posted last night about a possible shift North of LP(s).

GEFS from yesterday and today.

[Stuie]

CFS does seem to be fairly North with next weeks LP. Let`s monitor.

 

[ANYWEATHER]

Yup, Aprils going to see some disturbed weather from time to time right up until May, but thankfully there will be the usual Caveats of some fine weather☺

[minus10]

Well the models still signposting an unsettled potentially stormy spell for next week..

Gfs, Ecm, Ukmo, Icon, Jma 0z...

 

....(cannot get gfs or gem on meteocile presently)

...before then some decent weather for most of us upto and including sunday..good for easter walks....happy easter all

Edited April 7, 2023 by minus10

[Penrith Snow]

Where has the mid month high pressure gone? No sign of it on this mornings ECM, the Atlantic dominates from Monday onwards.

Hopefully an outlier but GFS isn't great either.

Andy

[jamesthemonkeh]

Still looks to be a reasonable chance of 20'C in England after mid-month

Whether it is a brief early plume or something with longevity I've no idea.

 

[Cheshire Freeze]

The GFS 6z was more concerning in terms of next week’s low in as much as it shows development occurring across the UK. Other output has had it as arriving as already matured.

[Howie]

Looks like settled and warm is out of the picture....

[KTtom]

Next weeks low modelled further and further south...here is ukmo 120

Edited April 7, 2023 by KTtom

[Wimbledon88]

April looking like a washout at this stage. 

[mb018538]

Expect this to change pretty soon….what was looking like a settling down period after mid month now looks ghastly. Very unsettled, wet and windy. Not particularly warm either after Sunday. Yuck yuck yuck.

[Stuie]

OK.. here we are for Tuesday. ECM/GEFS/GEM/UKMO 

UKMO alone it seems.

[alexisj9]

1 hour ago, Stuie said:

OK.. here we are for Tuesday. ECM/GEFS/GEM/UKMO 

UKMO alone it seems.

What's the next frame, does that wave develop into something, but over us rather than before in the Atlantic?

Edited April 7, 2023 by alexisj9

[Cheshire Freeze]

The potential storm for next week appears to be trending further S because its development is delayed. An earlier development i.e in the Atlantic to our W means it swings N earlier. If it develops later then it tracks further S. This run the SW and Midlands southwards cops it

[TwisterGirl81]

16 minutes ago, CreweCold said:

The potential storm for next week appears to be trending further S because its development is delayed. An earlier development i.e in the Atlantic to our W means it swings N earlier. If it develops later then it tracks further S. This run the SW and Midlands southwards cops it

Yes 70 - 80mph gusts in south west, midlands and London if the latest gfs was to verify, only saving grace is that due to how cool it’s been trees haven’t leafed out much 

Edited April 7, 2023 by TwisterGirl81

[KTtom]

12 hours ago, KTtom said:

Next weeks low modelled further and further south...here is ukmo 120

Further south again this morning...just the far south west currently at risk of severe gales but a wash out elswhere....

[Summer tyre]

And yet the ensemble shows it running further north, perhaps sparing the south west and south coast?

[lassie23]

Are any snow chasers left in here

[mushymanrob]

12 hours ago, mb018538 said:

Expect this to change pretty soon….what was looking like a settling down period after mid month now looks ghastly. Very unsettled, wet and windy. Not particularly warm either after Sunday. Yuck yuck yuck.

Not sure on how you reached that conclusion, but these charts havnt changed, are supported by the EPS GEFS and GEPS. These charts (centred on the 18th) are warm, bright, unsettled but most of the rain will be in the far North. These charts suggest a lot of very pleasant mainly bright, dry, warm Spring weather...

 

[LetItSnow!]

8 minutes ago, mushymanrob said:

Not sure on how you reached that conclusion, but these charts havnt changed, are supported by the EPS GEFS and GEPS. These charts (centred on the 18th) are warm, bright, unsettled but most of the rain will be in the far North. These charts suggest a lot of very pleasant mainly bright, dry, warm Spring weather...

 

You’d need to be careful that chart wouldn’t turn out to be a cloudfest on that day with such a balmy southwesterly flow and probably fuelling quite a bit of rain in the north so while warm I don’t think most would consider that nice weather, but it’s 10 days out so specifics are not possible. A little higher and it could be warm and sunny for most of the country or a little lower and it could be wet and windy with near normal temperatures  

[ANYWEATHER]

Certainly a different feeling April than the last few years, looks as though it may turn out notably wet. No signs of anything reliably settled or for that matter warm...

[LetItSnow!]

1 minute ago, ANYWEATHER said:

Certainly a different feeling April than the last few years, looks as though it may turn out notably wet. No signs of anything reliably settled or for that matter warm...

All good news really. I remember a lot of posters said we’d need a very wet spring after last year and perhaps that’s what we’re getting. There’s a lot of time left for people craving warm, anticyclonic weather for sure. 

[minus10]

After last couple of days of fairly decent concensus in the models for the midweek low some more significant differences this morning in the depth and definition of the low although it has to be said still an unsettled week coming up with that potential for a stormy spell perhaps further south..

Gfs, Ecm, Icon, Ukmo, Gem, Jma 0z..

..looks like a fairly complex situation for the models to deal with re interactions with the jetstream and more variations to be expected as we get closer to the time period...longer term prospects look good for a south westerly warming up but with still some rain at times looking at the anoms..eps & gfes

Very good growing weather for the gardens!..