Model Output Discussion - 15th March onwards

[Polaris]

4 hours ago, Eagle Eye said:

I'm not saying anything much but err...

Maybe not a UK-Scandi high but according to the ECM this summer could be looking like a proper hot setup.

God I hope so. 
With winter weather non existent nowadays and soaking rains in March - I’m hoping this chart is one of many for a hot dry summer ahead. 
Can the U.K. get at least one season right please. 

[ANYWEATHER]

29 minutes ago, Polaris said:

God I hope so. 
With winter weather non existent nowadays and soaking rains in March - I’m hoping this chart is one of many for a hot dry summer ahead. 
Can the U.K. get at least one season right please. 

Winter weather non existent nowadays ,what do you mean? 

[Eagle Eye]

5 hours ago, Eagle Eye said:

I'm not saying anything much but err...

Maybe not a UK-Scandi high but according to the ECM this summer could be looking like a proper hot setup.

Also thought I should add the MSLP anomaly in as that does have a UK-Scandi high of note and that's a 3 month anomaly for June, July and August. Seasonal forecasting is fraught with danger but still an incredible signal nonetheless.

 

Edited April 5, 2023 by Eagle Eye

[Rain All Night]

1 hour ago, Stuie said:

Deary me, the GFS loves it`s LP`s. That 2nd chart is insane.

ECM isn't too far off this time!!

And more in FI...

Edited April 5, 2023 by RainAllNight

[Sun Chaser]

Never seen such strong agreement from any ensembles for warm and dry this far out? Really is a marked and consistent increase in the mean 850s from day 9 onwards, usually the mean in FI is a flatline... and with very few precip spikes at this distance. Good signals for the second half of April on the GFS 12z ens 

 

Every single member is agreeing on some level of high pressure influence at day 13... very far away but such strong agreement is one to watch. For me the ensembles are much more telling at this distance than the ops.

Edited April 5, 2023 by plymsunshine

[Stuie]

51 minutes ago, RainAllNight said:

ECM isn't too far off this time!!

And more in FI...

It does look like trending NE which this far out is a good sign. Will look more into things tomorrow, as you said though, happy spring is on hold (ish)

Edit: quick look at the JS would indicate a Scottish issue but think will be heavily altered N closer to the time.

Edited April 5, 2023 by Stuie

[Metwatch]

P05 - Warmest GEFS member of the year so far bringing a max of 28°C to the capital. 

Very nice trend though on the ensemble suite after mid month, to something drier and warmer. 

Edited April 5, 2023 by Metwatch

[Rain All Night]

39 minutes ago, plymsunshine said:

Never seen such strong agreement from any ensembles for warm and dry this far out? Really is a marked and consistent increase in the mean 850s from day 9 onwards, usually the mean in FI is a flatline... and with very few precip spikes at this distance. Good signals for the second half of April on the GFS 12z ens 

 

Every single member is agreeing on some level of high pressure influence at day 13... very far away but such strong agreement is one to watch. For me the ensembles are much more telling at this distance than the ops.

There are some lovely ensemble mean charts through the last week of that run.

From the meteograms it looks like the ECM ensemble is going to agree:

Edited April 5, 2023 by RainAllNight

[Stuie]

Just now, RainAllNight said:

There are some lovely ensemble mean charts through the last week of that run.

From the meteograms it looks like the ECM ensemble is going to agree:

Yep, the trend is there mate, never like going that far ahead but it is a trend. Chasing warm instead of cold certainly is different.

[Maz]

1 hour ago, RainAllNight said:

ECM isn't too far off this time!!

And more in FI...

CWB - Cold Wet Block.

A semi-blocked set up with blocking highs in the “wrong” place for UK leaving us a slow moving low pressure.  I’m guessing HP to S maybe end up being stronger with the LP tending weaker and further NW.  

The positive must be that once that pulse of energy dissipates we get an Azores- Scandi high link up, which would make for a more than pleasant 2nd half of April.

[Rain All Night]

2 hours ago, RainAllNight said:

There are some lovely ensemble mean charts through the last week of that run.

From the meteograms it looks like the ECM ensemble is going to agree:

I've gotta say that the ECM 12z ensemble mean is not quite the stonker that the GFS one was.

[Don]

3 hours ago, ANYWEATHER said:

Winter weather non existent nowadays ,what do you mean? 

When people talk about winter 2022/23 being reasonable that says it all!!

[KTtom]

UKMO now picking up on the 'storm' for later next week gfs has been showing for a few days now. The track now crucial but a real threat of widespread severe gales.

Edited April 6, 2023 by KTtom

[BlueHedgehog074]

That Atlantic Low looks particularly mad on this morning’s ICON too towards mid next week. And quite slow moving as it progresses North-East through the centre of the UK:

Western/North-Western areas, particularly those in Ireland, would get blown all the way to Neptune. Though again anywhere could see some strong winds.

ICON is probably at the most extreme end of what could happen - perhaps also a possibility of blizzards on Northern hills/mountains. But this Spring Storm is certainly something to keep an on. 

Edited April 6, 2023 by DiagonalRedLine

[ANYWEATHER]

Well the absence of Winter storms look like appearing in the month which we commonly associate with showers.......

[minus10]

Yes there seems to be a fairly strong agreement in most of the models for an unsettled spell next week, with the severity of it still to be decided re low track and depth...

Icon, Ukmo, Gfs,Ecm, Gem, Jma 0z

...could be impactful if the deeper low signal verifies with leaves starting to come out on some of the trees...lot of dead wood may be brought down...

 

[Sunsetglimmer]

Latest gfs run shows high pressure moving in on 16th, I think this is the general switch to warmer if I am reading the models correct? I presume this is backed up by the ensembles? 

[ANYWEATHER]

11 minutes ago, Sunsetglimmer said:

Latest gfs run shows high pressure moving in on 16th, I think this is the general switch to warmer if I am reading the models correct? I presume this is backed up by the ensembles? 

Take no notice of the gfs at day ten it’s always wrong

[alexisj9]

13 hours ago, Don said:

When people talk about winter 2022/23 being reasonable that says it all!!

Well it was cold December January start of Feb down here, then finally warmed up a bit. It was the easterly draw on most of the high, till it moved south and all that rain started up north, and we warmed up. Then of course there was another slight cool down, when the snow event happened in march. After that it's mostly been cold and wet or warm and wet. Only problem really, no snow with the cold, an icey sleet land for one day in December, looked like snow though lol. Rained away mostly the next day, when most of the SE got snow though. When I say mostly, some of the icy stuff survived till the warm-up. Had it been snow, would have all gone.

[Howie]

What happened to the high pressure that we were supposed to have next week? Getting tired of unsettled weather

[alexisj9]

2 minutes ago, Howie said:

What happened to the high pressure that we were supposed to have next week? Getting tired of unsettled weather

People were looking to far ahead, and ignoring a low on the GFS, because of its performance with lows this year. Looks like this time it was correct, though hopefully a bit over zealous with it. Still a long way out though, but other models have it strong to, so will likely have some punch.

[Howie]

Just now, alexisj9 said:

People were looking to far ahead, and ignoring a low on the GFS, because of its performance with lows this year. Looks like this time it was correct, though hopefully a bit over zealous with it. Still a long way out though, but other models have it strong to, so will likely have some punch.

I must admit I fell for it as well. But can you blame us after the dismal March that's just gone. I was really looking forward to some nice settled weather, my mental health needs it

[drm]

41 minutes ago, Howie said:

What happened to the high pressure that we were supposed to have next week? Getting tired of unsettled weather

It was a rather weak anomaly that showed sadly, little sign of anything settled appearing for 10days at least, are we still suffering the dying embers of the SSW? Changeable at best stormy midweek in parts temps around average, hopeful that the Azores high will start to show itself by months end and give us a good settled spell.

[Nick2373]

Trend continues to show something warmer from the 15th onwards a few spikes also in with this which would suggest a SWestley direction then a drop down in ppn spikes from the 17th.

The trend as been there last few days with the control and the GFS Op flip flopping should see these fall more central with mean by next week.  

[sunny_vale]

3 hours ago, Howie said:

I must admit I fell for it as well. But can you blame us after the dismal March that's just gone. I was really looking forward to some nice settled weather, my mental health needs it

I'm with you there! Looks like we have 3 nice sunny and warm enough days coming up this bank holiday weekend so at least there's that. The unsettled spell next week doesn't look like it will linger on like the March gloom did either. I'd say there's reason to be optimistic overall