Model Output Discussion - 15th March onwards

[Nick2373]

The 18z still shows a tend to something milder as per yesterdays comments, PPN Spikes around the 04th then something more workable temps in the high teens further west you go.

East coast looks like  it will be plagued by cloud  reducing the temps slightly 

[SunSean]

1 hour ago, Nick2373 said:

The 18z still shows a tend to something milder as per yesterdays comments, PPN Spikes around the 04th then something more workable temps in the high teens further west you go.

East coast looks like  it will be plagued by cloud  reducing the temps slightly 

"East Coast looks like it will be plagued with cloud"- just like the whole of March then. Truly the worst place to be in the UK currently. 

[Summer tyre]

Tiny changes could make so much difference. The Met Office shows this deepening little low going into Northern France tomorrow, whereas ECFMG shows it tracking along pretty much the M4 corridor. That's going to make so much difference to the wind we get here on the south coast! Faites vos jeux...

[Rain All Night]

Next week looks kinda messy now... not bad perhaps in my back yard, but I'm not really sure...

Edited March 30, 2023 by RainAllNight

[Sun Chaser]

To sum up then:

Rest of this week looking miserable. A couple of dry but still cloudy days at the turn of the week before a trough brings more wet weather on Tuesday. Following that, the potential for sunnier weather in the mid-teens or even high teens leading up to Easter looks like a real possibility and to be honest would be amazing to come off given how hard it has been to achieve good weather so far this spring.

GFS consistently toying with the idea of a northerly in FI, potentially to come around the 12th. Nothing much would come of that so late in the season

Edited March 30, 2023 by plymsunshine

[jamesthemonkeh]

19 hours ago, mushymanrob said:

I dont like this, at all. High pressure ridging just West of us, linking with the strong high over Greenland. Low pressure to our far Northeast, this smacks of a surface flow from the northeasterly quadrant.. although itll be predominantly dry, itll be cool too, with Eastern and Central areas prone to that dreadful low grey Northsea cloud.

This isnt what we want to see in April..

Likewise the high pressure anomoly and temperature anomoly are uninspiring on CFSv2 - usual caveats regarding CFS and using anomolies apply.

[Cambrian]

Ribbit to rabbit in 10 on the 0z ECM op.

 
 

That’s the Easter bunny, that is. Yep. 

The position and shape of the high pressure looking to be all important for prospects for reasonable temperatures leading into Easter.

Comparing the 12z ECM op from yesterday and today’s 0z op for Easter Saturday shows this nicely. 

The 12z from yesterday continued to build the high northeast, pulling a cold northeasterly flow around from Scandinavia. Temperatures widely struggling to get out of single figures. The cold undercut off the North Sea. 

 

Today’s 0z sets the ridge up further east, hanging down the North Sea, bringing us in to a southeasterly flow, temperatures much more favourable for many more in the UK, particularly further south and west, 12-14 degrees. Ireland faring better still.

 

Before that, Maundy Thursday, a week today, looking pleasant on both runs, this from the 0z, as the high builds in from the southwest, winds light and variable, temperatures looking promising at around 12-15 degrees in the afternoon for many, a good looking day, particularly in the south and east.

 

Very different local prospects for individual days in terms of the feel of the weather depending on quite subtle differences in how the high pressure orientates, which will not get pinned down for several days yet. Clearly a lot better though than our starting point, the amphibious prospects for today, top left. 

Edited March 30, 2023 by Cambrian

[ANYWEATHER]

4 hours ago, RainAllNight said:

Next week looks kinda messy now... not bad perhaps in my back yard, but I'm not really sure...

A high level of Shannon entropy even into early next week. Very difficult forecasting any detail ahead by next week. 

[Rain All Night]

5 hours ago, RainAllNight said:

Next week looks kinda messy now... not bad perhaps in my back yard, but I'm not really sure...

We've got an ECM para this morning, here it is, not very different from the op as far as day 7:

It seems like a difficult forecast for any given place from Tuesday next week, until we know more about what happens when that big LP system meets the fledgling ridge. I'm hoping that the second burst of ridging in time for the bank holiday weekend is driven by some greater force and doesn't depend too much on what happens on Tuesday.

The latest GFS ensemble 6z puts the "Easter high", which is now passing through the day 10 sort of timeframe, further west, and that seems to bring us colder air and lower temperatures:

 

The link with Greenland and resulting northerly/northeasterly seems to have disappeared pretty much.

Edited March 30, 2023 by RainAllNight

[heath]

That would help dry things out. 

[Rain All Night]

Based on their written forecasts over the last few days, the Met Office have seemed to know all along that my "Tuesday blip" was going to be a little bit more than that, so well done to them...

The GFS wants to bring us back to dry land before very long though, so there's hope...

The GFS ensemble still has @Eagle Eye's UK-Scandi high forming in time for Easter:

Edited March 30, 2023 by RainAllNight

[KTtom]

Less of an easterly influence on tights ecm, more of an Atlatic flow, nothing dramatic but a swing around between who gets the more sunshine between western and eastern areas with the latter fairing much better than was looking likely yesterday.

[JoeShmoe]

more of this please! spring like 

[SLEETY]

Gfs going for the charts we were waiting all winter to appear. 

Watch them verify too., just to add salt to the wounds.

 

Edited March 30, 2023 by SLEETY

[Rain All Night]

43 minutes ago, KTtom said:

Less of an easterly influence on tights ecm, more of an Atlatic flow, nothing dramatic but a swing around between who gets the more sunshine between western and eastern areas with the latter fairing much better than was looking likely yesterday.

It goes the right way in FI too, though I was more comfortable when we were seeing charts without that intimidating trough to the west. But maybe we need it there to get the warmth?

For interest, on the UKMO 12z run, what's shown on the very last frame is as far east as any rain manages to get after Saturday:

Edited March 30, 2023 by RainAllNight

[stodge]

Evening all

Once again we see evidence tonight of the pattern change to the south as the heights which have dominated the winter over Iberia are replaced by the trough extending north from Africa. This pushes heights to the north over the British Isles and promotes east or southeasterly flows.

Not unusual for spring in response to a slow Atlantic. It often leads to another chilly spell in mid April as we can get a north easterly which while not wintry would take the edge off the spring.

[Rain All Night]

I'll take this thanks:

[Summer tyre]

39 minutes ago, stodge said:

Evening all

Once again we see evidence tonight of the pattern change to the south as the heights which have dominated the winter over Iberia are replaced by the trough extending north from Africa. This pushes heights to the north over the British Isles and promotes east or southeasterly flows.

Not unusual for spring in response to a slow Atlantic. It often leads to another chilly spell in mid April as we can get a north easterly which while not wintry would take the edge off the spring.

Litte ray of sunshine for all of us

[Man With Beard]

The Z500s don't look particularly exciting for warmth next week, but seeing as it will be April, still/dry and sunny conditions can whack up the temperature quite sharpish compared with the winter months, so long as there's not too much long-drawn easterly influence.

Am I the first person to suggest we might see a 20C by Easter if anything like the ECM op verifies?

They model is putting raw 18C maxes out towards the west country at times, which could definitely be upgraded to a 20C...

[Rain All Night]

Well now it seems we can compare the EC46 anomaly meteograms with the upgraded version...

https://charts.ecmwf.int/products/opencharts_extended_meteogram?base_time=202303300000&lat=50.7167&lon=-2.0&station_name=Poole

https://charts-dev.ecmwf.int/products/opencharts_extended_meteogram_esuite?base_time=202303300000&lat=50.7167&lon=-2.0&player_dimension=base_time&station_name=Poole

Edited March 30, 2023 by RainAllNight

[lassie23]

Any snow on the horizon

[Rain All Night]

Fun one to watch on higher-res output.

[Don]

1 hour ago, lassie23 said:

Any snow on the horizon

Not in this country!!

[johnholmes]

Once the frontal/low features have cleared the UK then prospects for eastern parts of England and Scotland don't look promising in terms of sunshine and temperatures. It is that time of year when an flow at low level off the North Sea can spell gloom and a cold feel. I suspect that will be what develops during this week.

The surface high and its upper ridge look likely to settle down probably somewhere in the N Sea.

[Howie]

26 minutes ago, johnholmes said:

Once the frontal/low features have cleared the UK then prospects for eastern parts of England and Scotland don't look promising in terms of sunshine and temperatures. It is that time of year when an flow at low level off the North Sea can spell gloom and a cold feel. I suspect that will be what develops during this week.

The surface high and its upper ridge look likely to settle down probably somewhere in the N Sea.

I hope not