Model Output Discussion - 15th March onwards

[lassie23]

is snow watch back on 

[Sun Chaser]

GFS 12z ensembles with fairly strong agreement about things settling down from day 7. Can't come soon enough. Hopefully warmth to follow!!  

[damianslaw]

2 minutes ago, plymsunshine said:

GFS 12z ensembles with fairly strong agreement about things settling down from day 7. Can't come soon enough. Hopefully warmth to follow!!  

Would be good timing with most schools breaking up in less than a week's time for Easter holidays and many businesses hoping for better times with more people out and about in a more positive springlike frame of mind. 

Still too much difference between the models to give an indication of likely conditions in the run up to Easter, but fingers crossed we see a more settled picture emerge as we move into April and more importantly some sunshine, which has been notable by its absence this March. The sun makes a real difference this time of year, it can still be cold with temps struggling to get into double figures but under light winds and clear skies with abundant sunshine it can quickly feel quite pleasant such is the power of the sunshine by now - as strong as it is in mid September. April is still the colder half of the year (first half at least statistically speaking), mean temps colder than October, but it often feels much milder than October despite what the temp reads mainly because of the strength of the sunshine and often much drier and less windy weather than October, yet October is much milder on average.

[ANYWEATHER]

20 minutes ago, lassie23 said:

is snow watch back on 

It will be if ECM verifies.........!

[alexisj9]

1 hour ago, richie3846 said:

I notice that the GFS doesn't suggest cold for this time period. I suggest the way the ECM hws the cold area  isolated from the north, like it somehow intensifies the cold further south, I rather doubt this will be the case.

Often can be from the east. I've see snow in the south east, warm spring temps in Scotland before now.

[alexisj9]

57 minutes ago, lassie23 said:

is snow watch back on 

I doubt it, but we'll see.

[minus10]

I think we can say the ecm op is 'mostly' without support..

[Cheshire Freeze]

A really wintry GFS FI this morning

Some harsh frosts and a sprinkling of snow about on this run

Edited March 27, 2023 by CreweCold

[Penrith Snow]

Spring is even more elusive this morning with GFS following yesterday's ECM bringing in a notable northerly in early April, cold enough in fact for widespread wintry showers and night time frost. How very different to last year which had a freak heatwave in mid March.

Andy

[Sun Chaser]

30 minutes ago, Penrith Snow said:

Spring is even more elusive this morning with GFS following yesterday's ECM bringing in a notable northerly in early April, cold enough in fact for widespread wintry showers and night time frost. How very different to last year which had a freak heatwave in mid March.

Andy

GFS op was pretty miserable but on the lower end of the pack by a mile, in fact an outlier for quite a large section. Ensembles are suggesting mid teens and dry by day 7, and even a few members show early spring heatwaves out in FI.

[Rain All Night]

Day 7 charts showing how we may or may not get some of that cold out of Scandinavia:

GFS FI wants us to keep going with the colder winds for a while:

GFS ensemble is very keen on the northern blocking, but...

...in a way that looks (to my amateur eyes) more like the ECM FI, which wants to take us back to business as usual quite quickly (although those heights to the south do disappear later on that GFS ensemble mean above):

  

Edited March 27, 2023 by RainAllNight

[minus10]

Well with gfs this morning following the path of ecm yesterday ....

3

...it got me thinking...high res verses low res?

..noticeable quite frequently how ops tend to go out on their own flipping from one extreme to another while the ens remain fairly constant ..obviously i am aware that they can flip also on occasions too however it seems to me that lately the ens are making a better job of it..no indication from them presently of very much colder weather for the beginning of April from the north east as far as i am aware although it doesnt look particularaly warm and settled as such either...

..the other thing is with the eps all going high resolution from June (as i understand it) it will be interesting to see how that plays out...will we see more flipping as with the ops because they will all be high res?..is that necessarily better for the extended or for trends is low resolution more appropriate?...just my thoughts...others may disagree..

[ANYWEATHER]

One thing looks relatively likely or not likely, high pressure building in from the south ,not likely for Early April, not picticularly warm  , remaining changeable, to unsettled with the caveat of some colder conditions from the north. Not a very inspiring outlook to be honest if you want some welcome sunshine and drier warmer weather

[Rain All Night]

The ECM and GFS 0z ensemble means are both quite similar and quite interesting this morning, the grabs below are from days 0, 5, 8, 13 and 15. Not quite sure what's happening over the UK and Europe between days 8 and 13...

EDIT: Just noticed that one of the few significant differences between the two ensembles is that the GFS seems to show a surface easterly over the UK on the day 13 chart where as the ECM does not.

The moving average precipitation anomaly charts from both models lose any positive precipitation anomaly over Great Britain by the period 1-7 April, and this remains the case by 4-11 April (which is as far as these runs go):

Wind roses and temps for my back yard on the south coast:

Edited March 27, 2023 by RainAllNight

[Rain All Night]

ECM op and ECM para are interesting to watch side-by-side this morning due to their contrasting endings.

[Lincs Observation]

8 hours ago, Penrith Snow said:

Spring is even more elusive this morning with GFS following yesterday's ECM bringing in a notable northerly in early April, cold enough in fact for widespread wintry showers and night time frost. How very different to last year which had a freak heatwave in mid March.

Andy

To be fair snow in spring is as much use as a walking stick as a club on a par 5 tee I’m for looking forward to that first day this year that reaches a pleasant 18oC

 

LO

[alexisj9]

17 hours ago, minus10 said:

I think we can say the ecm op is 'mostly' without support..

What about from the para?

[alexisj9]

32 minutes ago, Lincs Observation said:

To be fair snow in spring is as much use as a walking stick as a club on a par 5 tee I’m for looking forward to that first day this year that reaches a pleasant 18oC

 

LO

Yeah me to, I haven't cleared my garden yet, been to cold and wet.

Edited March 27, 2023 by alexisj9

[Rain All Night]

Three months late... 

[summer blizzard]

GFS and GEM both keep the low pressure spell relatively brief before popping high pressure somewhere near the UK. 

Euro this morning was fairly wet and mobile so it will be interesting to see if it follows the trend. 

[Rain All Night]

What a difference five days can make... I don't know what weather we will get from this but I don't really mind, it's just a joy to see those moody blues replaced with vibrant greens at long last!!

[RJBingham]

13 hours ago, CreweCold said:

A really wintry GFS FI this morning

Some harsh frosts and a sprinkling of snow about on this run

Gone this afternoon, hopefully never to return! 

[cheeky_monkey]

11 minutes ago, RainAllNight said:

What a difference five days can make... I don't know what weather we will get from this but I don't really mind, it's just a joy to see those moody blues replaced with vibrant greens at long last!!

not where i live..ruddy cold start to April as per usual 

[Stuie]

Haven`t looked at the ECM ENS for a few days but not shocked to see this 0z outlier.  We await the model upgrade.

Edited March 27, 2023 by Stuie

[Sunny76]

12 hours ago, Penrith Snow said:

Spring is even more elusive this morning with GFS following yesterday's ECM bringing in a notable northerly in early April, cold enough in fact for widespread wintry showers and night time frost. How very different to last year which had a freak heatwave in mid March.

Andy

It wasn’t a freak heatwave. We had a few days in the high teens and around 20c with longer spells of sunshine.