Model Output Discussion - 15th March onwards

[Rain All Night]

The pattern shift offered by the ECM ensemble 12z (cluster 2 below) isn't the most appealing start to April...

 

[Daniel*]

Quite a change from GFS this morning with rather cold continental flow - instead of very mild southwesterly flow. 

 

UKMO also looking more pointy blocky perhaps colder conditions could persist beyond early in week. Potential for harsh frost clearly there early in week as ridge moves closer in. It’s that time of year when it’s not sure what it wants to be. 

Edited March 22, 2023 by Daniel*

[mushymanrob]

Well its all looking rather average as we enter into April, theres no route to cold here! A moderate Westerly upper flow but with some decent heights - the 546DAM is over Scotland, which might suggest mild and not too wet? (it is unsettled)

[Rain All Night]

The sturdier ridge later on is back on the 6z GEFS...

We are getting towards the time of year when we have become accustomed to finding our first taste of warmth...

We seem to be quite a way away from that at the moment...

[mb018538]

1 hour ago, mushymanrob said:

Well its all looking rather average as we enter into April, theres no route to cold here! A moderate Westerly upper flow but with some decent heights - the 546DAM is over Scotland, which might suggest mild and not too wet? (it is unsettled)

I think it's still very undecided which way the pattern goes as we head into April.

After the mega strong and record braking MJO cycle of the last few weeks peters out, it will soon disappear into the COD as we head into April. No forcing from here it would seem. The NOAA update yesterday seems to favour some transient ridging in at least the southern half of the country, more changeable further north. Will be interesting how much ridging it shows today. Probably a bit drier than now, though still mainly unsettled. Best towards the S/E.

 

[mushymanrob]

2 hours ago, mb018538 said:

I think it's still very undecided which way the pattern goes as we head into April.

After the mega strong and record braking MJO cycle of the last few weeks peters out, it will soon disappear into the COD as we head into April. No forcing from here it would seem. The NOAA update yesterday seems to favour some transient ridging in at least the southern half of the country, more changeable further north. Will be interesting how much ridging it shows today. Probably a bit drier than now, though still mainly unsettled. Best towards the S/E.

 

i must admit to being a bit confused by you suggesting that its "very undecided" as we enter april, then describe pretty much what if had .. lol..

we will see how things develop, but both the noaas and the eps have been very consistent with building high pressure to our south, with a mean westerly/southwesterly upper flow to end march and start april... as i see it, its only the detail thats uncertain, i honestly cant see these charts being far from accurate. but we will see...

[Methuselah]

This week's Met. Office Ten-Day Trend. Nothing that unusual:

 

[Rain All Night]

UKMO trying harder than the others to be worth posting here, I would say.

Edited March 22, 2023 by RainAllNight

[Summer8906]

GFS 12z not without interest.

Best period next week now seems to be Mon/Tue, the possible Thurs warm period distinctly downgraded with lower pressure, so probably more cloudy.

Then there's a brief wet and likely cold spell at the start of April (for 2 or 3 days?), before pressure builds with a fine run-up to Easter.

Mixed, but interesting, and much more typical of spring than of late  - definitely better than endless damp southwesterlies!

Edited March 22, 2023 by Summer8906

[minus10]

From almost -10 to +10 within 3 days on the 850 op..

...yep...it must be spring...

[Alexis]

Sun making a bigger difference now we are beyond the 20th March. Synoptics can look pretty wet and grim, as it appears for today, but if you can avoid a rainband during daylight hours and dodge any showers, it is possible to have a very pleasant day.

 

[Rain All Night]

2 hours ago, RainAllNight said:

UKMO trying harder than the others to be worth posting here, I would say.

UKMO has ended up alone in keeping the cold air over the UK for as long as it does.

[Cambrian]

Next four days the UK and Ireland under the influence of the Atlantic trough on the 12z GFS mean anomalies. As it passes to the east, heights migrate south from Greenland through Ireland to Spain bringing us a quieter couple of days, and temporarily arresting the eastward progress of the next Atlantic low, before it makes its way in around the middle of next week at day 7, keeping it changeable through to the end of the month. 

After that, an earnest attempt from the ensemble to build those heights back north over the UK and Ireland during the first week of April, particularly from around day 12,

 

the mean pressure for Birmingham climbing from around 1000mb at the turn of the month to over 1020mb by the 6th, op and control in on the plan too.

A stronger signal building here for it to become much less unsettled by the end of the first week of April, which by then would no doubt be a very welcome development!

[mb018538]

 

Comparing the 8-14 day outlook from yesterday to today, the positive height anomalies covering the south are now gone….which suggests a more unsettled outlook for more of us, with a flatter westerly flow. No signs of anything warmer and settled on the horizon at the moment.

[Stuie]

Pretty good agreement between the ECM and GEFS ensembles. Cold blip then an upturn in temps heading into April. Nothing to say spring has sprung, damp just about double figures 2M temps but is edging... (ECM still trying to throw an outlier)

[stodge]

1 hour ago, RainAllNight said:

UKMO has ended up alone in keeping the cold air over the UK for as long as it does.

Alone of the models UKM doesn't show a shortwave around Iceland at about T+90 - that holds back the heights ridging south from Greenland and allows heights to sink south into Europe which in turn tilts the Atlantic trough back positive and brings back the southwesterlies.

Without this shortwave, heights develop as we see at T+144 and push south holding the Atlantic back and maintaining a NE'ly flow across much of the British Isles.

[damianslaw]

A bit of divergence in the models in the reliable timeframe, UKMO and GFS to an extent show a colder high pressure on the scene into the new week - Monday/Tuesday holding the atlantic at bay, ECM showing a shorter colder northerly shot then the atlantic rolls back in.

Let's see if this theme continues, or we just see a repeat of this week.. 

A topsy turvy classic spring battleground scenario ahead with the polar air doing battle with the tropical maritime air, the colder air winning out for a time at least. All quite normal for this stage in early Spring.

[Cambrian]

The ECM control looks to have done a decent job from more than a week ago of picking up on the northerly blast associated with low pressure over Scandinavia, now at day 4. 

 

It will be interesting to see if the 0z ECM is again on the right tracks at day 12 / 13 with this northeasterly flow bringing in some very cold air for early April associated with high pressure over Scandinavia and the Norwegian Sea. 

 

On the chilly side if it happens with nighttime frosts for many but decent looking for some afternoons outside, though perhaps with a pullover on!

  

Again, the control is close to the op and mean through to day 10. Overall, a similar ensemble profile to yesterday’s 12z GFS with a marked rise in pressure during the first week of April. A similar evolution too, with heights building north from Iberia during week 2. 

 

This kind of setup could eventually pave the way to something a good deal more spring-like as we approach the Easter holiday. 

Edited March 23, 2023 by Cambrian

[mushymanrob]

Signs of a change?
The NOAA 8-14 dayer isnt a bad chart, as the mean upper trough is located well to our West, and although we have a moderate WSW upper flow over us, its not bad, despite being unsettled. Its not a "monsoon" chart and should be moderately mild. Theres still a weak high pressure anomaly to our South which on the lastest EPS for the 7th (the NOAA is centred on the 2nd) has developed further. It might be just to our West, but the heights are good with the 552DAM over most of the Country in a flow sorced to our Southwest.

Im liking this!

[BlueHedgehog074]

1 minute ago, mushymanrob said:

Signs of a change?
The NOAA 8-14 dayer isnt a bad chart, as the mean upper trough is located well to our West, and although we have a moderate WSW upper flow over us, its not bad, despite being unsettled. Its not a "monsoon" chart and should be moderately mild. Theres still a weak high pressure anomaly to our South which on the lastest EPS for the 7th (the NOAA is centred on the 2nd) has developed further. It might be just to our West, but the heights are good with the 552DAM over most of the Country in a flow sorced to our Southwest.

Im liking this!

That is certainly a start. Some warmer (despite feeling pretty mild currently) and less unsettled and/or drier weather would be welcome soon - much as I understand rain being needed for a number of parts. But the above maybe some hints as to what’s to come into, and throughout, April. I’m afraid you can’t last forever, Autumn and Winter.

[Rain All Night]

I would like to believe that these frames at days 11 and 15 from the ECM 0z and GFS 6z ensembles might mean there is a reasonable chance of a stable ridge building over us by the end of the first week of April...

I'm interpreting the accompanying wind roses as being a split between the surface high getting part of the way over us and bringing us winds from a clockwise direction, and a fail where the ridge just carries on east and we get W/SW winds again:

Edited March 23, 2023 by RainAllNight

[Metwatch]

After recent mild temperatures, looks like we'll see a brief colder snap from Sunday to Tuesday ish.

So a return to some weak air frosts & single digit daytime maxes. Wintry showers likely around, though mainly for the north, no significant snow expected. Nothing overly unusual for the time of year...

Back to the norm of recent with mild temperatures & spells of rain from Wednesday, but with showers and sunshine in the mix as well.

Perhaps something a bit more drier and maybe warmer next month with some high pressure. That would fit in with the MJO and ENSO forecast analogues given current data/forecast although SSW impacts are still lingering perhaps.

Edited March 23, 2023 by Metwatch

[Cambrian]

“And it is written” said ECMop the sage, as noon cast his shadow the very length of him, “for your days of toil in cruddy westerlies of various sorts, on each Sunday, a ridge on the western ocean shall, for your benefit and delight, bring you winds from the north”. 

 

And we rejoiced, for it was ECMop and he was wise. 

[Rain All Night]

Hey guys, it's a testament to how uninteresting the model watching is at the moment that I seem to be the first to have noticed this today: the Meteociel site has added the new parallel ("beta") version of the ECMWF! As others have posted here previously, the updates to the "deterministic" (op) run seem comparatively routine, but the upgrade to the ensemble is fairly monumental, with the resolution doubled to be the same as that of the deterministic run, and this new version is intended to replace the current operational version in June: https://www.ecmwf.int/en/about/media-centre/news/2023/upgrade-forecasts-centre-our-plans-2023-says-dg

Here are the links for the deterministic runs...

Fast deterministic: https://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/ecmwf.php?ech=168&mode=1&map=1&type=0&para=1
Full deterministic: https://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/ecmwf_hres.php?ech=168&mode=0&carte=1&runpara=1

I've also found links for the ensembles, but at the moment there are no charts on these pages - hopefully there will be soon...

Fast ensemble mean: https://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/ecmwf.php?ech=168&mode=1&map=1&type=1&para=1
Full ensemble: https://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/ecmwfens_cartes.php?code=51&ech=168&mode=0&carte=1&runpara=1

EDIT: At the moment I get the impression that only 0z runs are available.

As a bonus, I've also found a link on Google to the ECMWF "test" website, where they seem to be previewing some charts generated from the new ensemble version: https://charts-dev.ecmwf.int/products/opencharts_meteogram_esuite?base_time=202303230000&epsgram=classical_plume&lat=51.5084&lon=-0.125533&player_dimension=base_time&station_name=London

Have fun!! Unfortunately, the outlook is still crap on the new version 

Look how much less spread there is earlier on on this Z500 plume!!

Edited March 23, 2023 by RainAllNight

[ANYWEATHER]

The Ecm takes us into the new month very cyclonic, could well be some beefy thunderstorms if this set-up verifies. .