Model Output Discussion - 15th March onwards

[alexisj9]

2 hours ago, Iceman2606 said:

As expected...

Wow the ensembles follow the cold from yesterday, and opp and control go outlier warm, you couldn't make it up. Mind you that's deep FL anyway. Looks to be average after a mild blip closer to now.

[Cambrian]

Is that the 12z ECM op giving us another day 10 chart that’s away with the fairies?

 

 

[minus10]

32 minutes ago, Mike Poole said:

A ghost, maybe?

Anyway, not really a solution that appears in the ECM clusters.  I think the direction of travel is actually towards a colder end to the month.  Here’s the clusters for T192-T240 and T264+

Looks to be a signal to push up an Atlantic ridge, which may go on to develop a northerly flow, which in the case of cluster 2 in the extended looks quite potent.  One final hurrah for winter maybe for those further north…

Yes, either that or its been drinking...mind you its not even the pub run..

..the ecm ens still sober though with the mean showing the cooler dip between 25th and 30th...

 

[Mike Poole]

GFS this morning again intent on bringing a cold blast in at the end of the month.  Here T288:

Looking at the cross section of zonal winds at 60N, this has shown up on a number of runs, and seems to be due to another downwelling from the SSW, you can see the effect reaching the troposphere around the turn of the month:

[IDO]

No apparent change yet, at least for the next ten days, with all models in a westerly flow, but as we are on the cold side of the jet, there are chances of flirtations with some colder upper air.

GEM: 

ECM: 

So cold rain IMBY but maybe some transient wintry stuff on hills and mountains up north.

Post-D10 GFS is messy and has been for some runs, so maybe stick with the status quo until stronger evidence of a change. The S London GEFS 850S:

 

 

[minus10]

41 minutes ago, Mike Poole said:

GFS this morning again intent on bringing a cold blast in at the end of the month.  Here T288:

Looking at the cross section of zonal winds at 60N, this has shown up on a number of runs, and seems to be due to another downwelling from the SSW, you can see the effect reaching the troposphere around the turn of the month:

Yes although the ens are not with this ...

..could it be as i think was alluded to before that the high res is more capable of detecting this downwelling signal perhaps than the ens...however with the op variability at present i wouldnt like to say..unsettled and cool at times seems a fair bet...

[BlueHedgehog074]

A little look on this particular day, the models show a little ridge to the South-West of the UK nudging North-East through the Southern areas bringing some dry weather and some sunny spells. 

At the same time, the Low in the Atlantic will be extending its arm East towards the North-West of the UK carrying a spell of rain East through Ireland during the early to mid afternoon, then onto Western areas of Scotland and Northern England during the evening and night (perhaps brushing through Northern parts of Wales also). A bit of rain/showers across the South-East this morning too, which should vanish into the afternoon. 
 

 

A chilly start for many this morning, particularly across North-Western areas and South Eastern parts of Ireland but warming up a bit into the afternoon and through into the evening. Temperatures just reaching double figures for some in Central and Southern parts of England. And particularly over some North-Eastern parts near(ish) the coastal areas. Suspect the tall hills/mountains to the West providing particular shelter for North-Eastern parts from the Westerly/North-Westerly breezes and where sunshine levels could be at their best. Looks to remain cooler for most in the West and North, but still temperatures could get into the fairly high single figures in parts. 

 

In the sunny spells, it could feel quite pleasant despite the breeze. Despite the spell of rain for North-Western areas (and even then, dry for many most of the morning), it looks to be a reasonable day for the Mamma’s out there.

Though whether sunshine, cloud or rain, may you and your ladies have a…

And hope for those where this day could be difficult, that you are able to find peace and comfort (we appreciate it won’t be an easy day for all, but will be by your side)

Edited March 19, 2023 by DiagonalRedLine
Rephrasing 2nd to last paragraph

[Guest]

Not much sign of early spring warmth on the ECMWF ensemble suite this morning:

[Cambrian]

A disturbed period of weather ahead for the UK and Ireland through this week and into next weekend on the 0z ECM op. Several bouts of windy weather over the next 7 days, over inland areas at times too, as the complex low battles its way across Atlantic. 

 

The low becomes dramatically flattened west-east, troughing into Scotland as heights squeeze up its western flank along the Labrador coast north into Greenland, squeezing the energy south, as shown by the jet stream coming south too, pointing southwest-northeast over the UK and Ireland today before heading south into France as the week goes on. 

 

Lower heights push southwest once more down the Norwegian Sea, another factor helping to force the pattern south, before the Atlantic low merges with the base of the Scandinavian trough, as a prelude to the colder air winning through by early the following week.

[minus10]

Think the main takeaway from gfs 6z for next 8 days or so is the rainfull..

..should help get that soil moisture content up for those areas that need it......as well as those areas that dont....

Edited March 19, 2023 by minus10

[Atmogenic]

18 hours ago, Iceman2606 said:

Stonking GFS 12z for the end of March. Will most certainly be a major outlier but great eye candy nonetheless.

 

Despite those 850s the surface temps would not be as high as you'd have thought due to the sunshine strength still at this time of year.

I miss these charts so much 

[alexisj9]

5 minutes ago, Atmogenic said:

I miss these charts so much 

Site is being weird today, my last post in a different thread kept saying you can't post more than once in a certain time period, and also didn't show in recent posts. I hadn't made any other posts. It did post my post, though. If I had kept pressing submit, there would have been more than one like this. Edit this one went through alright.

Edited March 19, 2023 by alexisj9

[Stuie]

This has to be the worst combo this week, wet and windy (gusty). ugh.

 

[Cambrian]

12z UKMO unleashes an explosive cyclogenesis candidate for next weekend at day 6 and 7 - a 1005mb low begins to form about 500 miles west of Cape Finisterre at 144h, heads northeast at 156h and deepens to 978mb by 168h. Fuelled in part no doubt by a 12 degree difference in the T850 between the north of Scotland and the south coast. 

   

More heavy rain for the south as the low tracks into Cornwall with some very strong winds on its southern flank, and on a continuation of that northeastward course, going to head straight up through England and Wales,

 

though perhaps more likely to be steered east by the cold air to the north and rip along the channel instead.

12z ECM op looking to develop a low in a similar position but deepens it to 990mb well to the southwest at day 6, before bringing it through the channel by day 7. 

 

An unsettled week ahead and with the increased Atlantic mobility and particularly steep north-south temperature gradient between the air masses either side of the jet stream, growing indications now of the potential for a quite volatile setup for next weekend. 

[damianslaw]

Traditionally - but not always, this time of year should see a quietening down in the atlantic, but this year it looks like gearing up a level, such has been its notable calmess all season in the main.

An unsettled outlook, low pressure could be a deep feature as we see cold air to the north clash with the mild tropical air to the south.. could be quite a deluge for many, meaning March 2023 will likely go down as a wet month, perhaps notably so for some - making up for the very dry February. 

The models continue to show the atlantic trough finally edging east through the coming weekend, allowing polar air to filter down on its western flank - though any cold shot looks shortlived, but could still throw up a wintry recipe for northern parts with the return of frost.

Compared to february which was a high pressure fest, this March looks like being a low pressure fest with nothing particularly settled on the horizon likely through the months end. Temperatures a bit above average for a time, but won't feel pleasant in the wind, cloud and rain, becoming closer to average or a bit below in the north. Overall not a particular inspiring outlook.

[mb018538]

10 hours ago, damianslaw said:

Traditionally - but not always, this time of year should see a quietening down in the atlantic, but this year it looks like gearing up a level, such has been its notable calmess all season in the main.

An unsettled outlook, low pressure could be a deep feature as we see cold air to the north clash with the mild tropical air to the south.. could be quite a deluge for many, meaning March 2023 will likely go down as a wet month, perhaps notably so for some - making up for the very dry February. 

The models continue to show the atlantic trough finally edging east through the coming weekend, allowing polar air to filter down on its western flank - though any cold shot looks shortlived, but could still throw up a wintry recipe for northern parts with the return of frost.

Compared to february which was a high pressure fest, this March looks like being a low pressure fest with nothing particularly settled on the horizon likely through the months end. Temperatures a bit above average for a time, but won't feel pleasant in the wind, cloud and rain, becoming closer to average or a bit below in the north. Overall not a particular inspiring outlook.

Look awful to be honest. I'd expect some flooding stories to be hitting the news in the next couple of weeks in some Western areas looking at the latest charts.



Would have much rather this happened in February! Some high pressure and sunshine would feel lovely now it's late March, but it looks like we're going to have to wait and see what April can deliver this year.

[ANYWEATHER]

The Atlantic in full control, and I'm still sticking my neck out and saying that the Easter period is volatile as well with very unsettled weather.

[mushymanrob]

Well these charts are consistent, and suggest high pressure building to our South as we enter April. This should dry things out a bit, and, after a possible chillier phase - become pleasantly mild.

[minus 9]

1 hour ago, mushymanrob said:

Well these charts are consistent, and suggest high pressure building to our South as we enter April. This should dry things out a bit, and, after a possible chillier phase - become pleasantly mild.

Let's hope so snow watch is over let's have some nice dry and pleasant weather.

[minus10]

Both ecm 0z and gfs 6z  showing this low just off se on the 26th..one to watch if it gets signalled to deepen in later runs..

[SLEETY]

57 minutes ago, minus10 said:

Both ecm 0z and gfs 6z  showing this low just off se on the 26th..one to watch if it gets signalled to deepen in later runs..

Snowfall chances looking at that.Maybe winter isnt finished yet,

[Rain All Night]

4 hours ago, mushymanrob said:

Well these charts are consistent, and suggest high pressure building to our South as we enter April. This should dry things out a bit, and, after a possible chillier phase - become pleasantly mild.

There is still ridging of that nature showing this morning, though the precip anomaly suggests it might not be getting far enough north to help us?

[Cambrian]

Happy spring equinox! 

Both 0z GEM and 6z GFS ensemble means trying to get into the swing of things by day 15 with a build of heights up from the Azores high into the south and west of the UK and Ireland, but the 0z ECM keeps a flatter pattern with lower heights and a more of a straight westerly Atlantic influence. 

GEM / GFS / ECM

 
 
 

Indeed, looking at the mean T850s, GEM and GFS making some modest headway only, but the ECM day 1 to 15 animations perhaps capture the pattern most neatly - oscillating between milder and colder, nothing too far from normal, the occasional attempt at a ridge but broadly staying changeable with low pressure maintained over the Atlantic and not looking to warm up any time soon. 

 

And that’s the thing that’s nagging at me, particularly with the ECM output -  with the clocks going forward next weekend, this is beginning to eat into valuable spring / summer time and if recent years are anything to go by that only leaves us with another 7 months or so of scope for warm weather before we’re at the end of October and the clocks are going back. That’d be just our luck, you couldn’t make it up.

[Northern Sky]

1 hour ago, Cambrian said:

Happy spring equinox! 

Both 0z GEM and 6z GFS ensemble means trying to get into the swing of things by day 15 with a build of heights up from the Azores high into the south and west of the UK and Ireland, but the 0z ECM keeps a flatter pattern with lower heights and a more of a straight westerly Atlantic influence. 

GEM / GFS / ECM

 
 
 

Indeed, looking at the mean T850s, GEM and GFS making some modest headway only, but the ECM day 1 to 15 animations perhaps capture the pattern most neatly - oscillating between milder and colder, nothing too far from normal, the occasional attempt at a ridge but broadly staying changeable with low pressure maintained over the Atlantic and not looking to warm up any time soon. 

 

And that’s the thing that’s nagging at me, particularly with the ECM output -  with the clocks going forward next weekend, this is beginning to eat into valuable spring / summer time and if recent years are anything to go by that only leaves us with another 7 months or so of scope for warm weather before we’re at the end of October and the clocks are going back. That’d be just our luck, you couldn’t make it up.

Only 7 months?!

That's more than enough thank you very much .

The time I love settled sunny weather the most is in Spring when it's not too warm but that doesn't look likely just yet. At the moment the models - particularly the GFS and GEM - are hinting at a possible rise in pressure as we head towards Easter but it's pretty tentative at the moment. It's been fairly wet here but nothing out of the ordinary and I suspect we may well be due a very wet month at some point soon. 

 

[mushymanrob]

1 hour ago, RainAllNight said:

There is still ridging of that nature showing this morning, though the precip anomaly suggests it might not be getting far enough north to help us?

Possibly, but at this range i wouldnt worry about the detail, and i have no idea how accurate those precip prediction charts are. It must be said though that the EPS 00z wasnt as progressive with the ridge on the 12z i posted. The main theme is an expected ridge to build to our near South, the 546DAM is over most of England and Wales, how much ppn we get will depend on how strong the ridge builds, and i find that sometimes its the timing thats out more than the pattern..