Model Output Discussion - 15th March onwards

[Don]

37 minutes ago, prolongedSnowLover said:

Heatwave in April sounds better than one in the summer months that’s for sure. Not sure how likely the GFS op is to verify though being at odds with the rest!

It's done it before so can't be dismissed!!  However, what would be more concerning if it was to come off is that it could be a sign of things to come!!

Edited March 24, 2023 by Don

[Rain All Night]

Still looking OK this afternoon for a better first week of April, would be nice to start seeing this at day 7 on the deterministic runs soon...

[Polar Maritime]

1 hour ago, Snowboy111 said:

Anybody make anything of this little channel low for midnight tomorrow. Showed up on the 12z and now the pub run. Gales for the Channel Islands ?? Moves towards se England for mid morning  

Ukv take..

[Mark wheeler]

4 hours ago, Don said:

Seen outliers like that a fair few times in recent years and they have actually been correct!!

Yep the 40c period for example, that 1st showed as an outlier on GFS . To add though it often did this in previous year's so was bound to be right eventually.

[Don]

10 minutes ago, Mark wheeler said:

Yep the 40c period for example, that 1st showed as an outlier on GFS . To add though it often did this in previous year's so was bound to be right eventually.

It was a similar story with the heat spikes in June/July 2019 and July 2020 too, so perhaps it is on to something!

[Penrith Snow]

If your looking for spring don't view this mornings ECM, it's a washout from Start to finish and cooler as well as we go into April, indeed, by +240 we have a Scandy high and cold easterlies into Scotland.

Oh dear.

Andy

[Guest]

If anyone claims they know how Easter is going to turn out they are telling porkies! Absolutely enormous swings in the gfs out in twelve hours from a BBQ Easter and to an extension on winter.

[Northern Sky]

42 minutes ago, Penrith Snow said:

If your looking for spring don't view this mornings ECM, it's a washout from Start to finish and cooler as well as we go into April, indeed, by +240 we have a Scandy high and cold easterlies into Scotland.

Oh dear.

Andy

Perhaps avoid the GFS as well which brings a Greenland high and snow before Easter. Certainly nothing settled or warm on offer just yet and the warnings of an extended cool Spring due to the SSW look accurate as things stand.

[bluearmy]

Anyone else noticing that we still see pulses of unseasonal cold uppers modelled  (likely a consequence of the ssw) and also the Azores ridging towards Iberia driving early season warmth into w europe 

that juxtaposition will likely drive some jet strength and some potentially interesting weather in our part of the NH. 

[ANYWEATHER]

Changeable to very unsettled weather for the forseable and yes potential for a disturbed Easter as well.

[Scorcher]

44 minutes ago, Northern Sky said:

Perhaps avoid the GFS as well which brings a Greenland high and snow before Easter. Certainly nothing settled or warm on offer just yet and the warnings of an extended cool Spring due to the SSW look accurate as things stand.

Spring is running above average so far on the CET- the SSW may prevent warm high pressure dominance but it certainly doesn't guarantee it will be cool.

[Scorcher]

48 minutes ago, Northern Sky said:

Perhaps avoid the GFS as well which brings a Greenland high and snow before Easter. Certainly nothing settled or warm on offer just yet and the warnings of an extended cool Spring due to the SSW look accurate as things stand.

Also what are we categorising as 'warm' in late March?

My average max temp over the last 8 days is 14.3C and average min temp is 7.2C. It's actually a fairly impressive warm spell statistically for this early in the season.

We've only had one day that has failed to reach 14C in that time.

I think one of the perils of looking too far ahead is that you miss what is already right in front of you.

 

[Cambrian]

Best to take it up to day 8 first. Both the 0z GFS and ECM ensemble means picking up on the idea of heights attempting to link up between Greenland and Iberia. 

The first pulse is by day 2-3, quickly broken through by the Atlantic low by day 4, squeezing the heights to the south down into the western Mediterranean, but these then work west through Iberia for another attempt to link up with the northern heights by day 8. It’s quite nice to look at. 

 

The GFS is more positive with the linkup by day 8 than the ECM. This is of note as it leads to quite a marked difference between the means by day 12 - the GFS builds in a ridge from the Azores high, with the 1020mb isobar into the north of Ireland and Scotland. The ECM builds heights, but more modestly than the GFS, and which don’t break northeast as a surface ridge, 1010-1015mb over the UK and Ireland, keeping the pattern flatter with more of an Atlantic influence on the run-up to Easter, but still a good deal less unsettled than what we have this weekend.

  

The position of the Atlantic low is very different too, much further west in the Atlantic on the GFS. The overall PV profiles are very similar, but the ECM is keeping just that little bit more life in the core, with lower heights projected west, preventing the consolidation of heights through Greenland that the GFS is keen on, that could bring us something more reliably settled.

So plenty to be resolved as successive pulses of heights from the south chance their arm at trying to muscle through the Atlantic jet stream and get that block going, though the remaining influence of the PV for potentially suppressing the traction for Greenland heights to provide the linkup is still clearly a player. A very fitting tussle for the time of year.

[Northern Sky]

10 minutes ago, Scorcher said:

Also what are we categorising as 'warm' in late March?

My average max temp over the last 8 days is 14.3C and average min temp is 7.2C. It's actually a fairly impressive warm spell statistically for this early in the season.

We've only had one day that has failed to reach 14C in that time.

I think one of the perils of looking too far ahead is that you miss what is already right in front of you.

 

Yes fair point but it's only a couple of weeks since we had a significant snow event here and then another covering on the 14th. The last week has been mild but only a couple of those days have felt 'Spring like' as the others have been wet and blustery which despite the temperature have certainly felt rather chilly. 

It's the kind of calm, sunny weather that enables you to feel the strength of the sun which has been in short supply so far here. 

[Summer8906]

1 hour ago, Scorcher said:

Also what are we categorising as 'warm' in late March?

My average max temp over the last 8 days is 14.3C and average min temp is 7.2C. It's actually a fairly impressive warm spell statistically for this early in the season.

We've only had one day that has failed to reach 14C in that time.

I think one of the perils of looking too far ahead is that you miss what is already right in front of you.

 

I suspect when people say "warm" they mean "settled, sunny, and not cold for the time of year". 14C, dull, wet and windy might meet that definition on temperature, but not the other attributes, It isn't really many people's idea of spring weather; it's autumnal, not spring-like.

 

Edited March 25, 2023 by Summer8906

[Rain All Night]

I'll pretend the 0z ECM ensemble didn't happen and just post this from the GFS one 

[chapmanslade]

1 hour ago, Summer8906 said:

I suspect when people say "warm" they mean "settled, sunny, and not cold for the time of year". 14C, dull, wet and windy might meet that definition on temperature, but not the other attributes, It isn't really many people's idea of spring weather; it's autumnal, not spring-like.

 

Autumnal  We had everything now when Spring is called Autumnal!

April showers anybody? The weather we are having now is EXACTLY what Spring is, with sudden downpours, warmth then cold as the PV wanes.

[Cambrian]

March looking to go out on a quiet, chilly note, but the 12z GFS op at day 5 is just taking the mickey.

 

[Anthony Burden]

Evening all,some time ago in one of my blogs I suggested March CET would be below average,looking at the 12z ECM tonight it looks highly likely that the end of March could well tip it into a below average CET if the ECM is correct this evening.

[richie3846]

3 minutes ago, Anthony Burden said:

Evening all,some time ago in one of my blogs I suggested March CET would be below average,looking at the 12z ECM tonight it looks highly likely that the end of March could well tip it into a below average CET if the ECM is correct this evening.

I can't see the same thing you are seeing. It looks mild at the end of March except 2 or 3 days, starting tomorrow, which are slightly below average but nothing exceptional.

[Summer8906]

7 hours ago, chapmanslade said:

Autumnal  We had everything now when Spring is called Autumnal!

Autumnal as in constant southwesterlies, grey skies, mild nights, humid air, low cloud base and non-convective rainfall, which has been the dominant weather type here for the last two weeks.

 

Edited March 25, 2023 by Summer8906

[Summer8906]

2 hours ago, Cambrian said:

March looking to go out on a quiet, chilly note, but the 12z GFS op at day 5 is just taking the mickey.

 

Where do you see March going out on a "quiet chilly note" - can't see that on the GFS or the ECM. To be fair the T+240 on the ECM does meet that description, but can't see anything resembling that in March, except on Monday.

Edited March 25, 2023 by Summer8906

[Daniel*]

Very uninspiring reflected by how quiet it is in here… it looks April will begin much like most of March. Anaemic temperatures and above average rainfall, this is likely the lingering aftermath of late winter SSW at work.

[TwisterGirl81]

11 hours ago, Scorcher said:

Also what are we categorising as 'warm' in late March?

My average max temp over the last 8 days is 14.3C and average min temp is 7.2C. It's actually a fairly impressive warm spell statistically for this early in the season.

We've only had one day that has failed to reach 14C in that time.

I think one of the perils of looking too far ahead is that you miss what is already right in front of you.

 

I’m really trying my hardest to understand how 14c can be classed as warm….18c is where I’d set the ball park on when temperatures start to feel slightly warm. 

We can get 14c in winter down here during a mild spell. This spring so far for down here in the south has been what I’d describe as cool with cold shots thanks to the SWW! And I can’t wait until it does one and spring finally decides to show up. Having said that I’d rather have the rain now rather than the second half of spring. Hope to god it warms up soon, seems to be taking for ever to warm up 

Edited March 25, 2023 by TwisterGirl81

[lassie23]

Just now, TwisterGirl81 said:

I’m really trying my hardest to understand how 14c can be classed as warm….18c is where I’d set the ball park on when temperatures start to feel slightly warm. 

We can get 14c in winter down here during a mild spell. This spring so far for down here in the south has been what I’d describe as cool with cold shots thanks to the SWW! And I can’t wait until it does one and spring finally decides to show up. Having said that I’d rather have the rain mow rather than the second half of spring. Hope to god it warms up soon, seems to be taking for ever to warm up 

Those up north might consider 14c warm lol