Winter 2023/24 - Discussions & Forecasts

[Dancerwithwings]

5 minutes ago, lassie23 said:

Winter forecast 2023/2024: First in-depth Winter weather outlook and how the pressure patterns will develop under the strong El Nino event » Severe Weather Europe

WWW.SEVERE-WEATHER.EU

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A first look at the Winter 2023/2024 forecast for the United States, Canada, and Europe shows a strong influence of the growing El Nino event

Has this already been posted

How many adds…I gave up half way through

[lassie23]

1 minute ago, Dancerwithwings said:

How many adds…I gave up half way through

Don't look at them read around them lol.

[Summer tyre]

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[Don]

1 hour ago, blizzard81 said:

We must be due an epic January cold spell - Surely.... I'll get mi coat

Thing of the past..... 

[sundog]

59 minutes ago, Don said:

Thing of the past..... 

Haven't had a decent Jan cold spell since  the first half of Jan 2010. Ireland missed out on the Jan 2013 spell. Honestly can't remember the last time I've had a decent cold spell during the second half of jan, probably back in the 80s. Since the climate is judged by 30 yr periods its like 2nd half of Jan proper cold spells aren't part of the climate for my location anymore. That's the way I look at it anyway. 

[Summer of 95]

2 hours ago, Don said:

Did you see much in the way of snow in December 2000 between Christmas and New Year, as I think many parts of the Midlands did quite well on the 27th/28th?

How much snow did you get during December 2010?  I remember you saying that you largely missed out, but I have a feeling that was the during the previous 09/10 winter?

Not much in December 2000, 2-3cm but that was the most since January 1997 (and the first time it had stayed on the ground more than 24 hours since then). 

Dec 2010 we had snow on the ground from Nov 27 to Dec 9th, then again from 17th to 28th. Maximum was 15cm from 22nd-26th Dec (7cm on 2nd-3rd in the first spell). That one certainly made up for the winter before.....

2009/10 was the horror show when a 20-30 mile radius of Shrewsbury somehow avoided virtually all the snow time and time again. Whatever the wind direction, whatever the forecast... And again and again. Rather see another 2013-14 than that one (everywhere had nothing in that one)

[Dorsetbred]

11 hours ago, Don said:

Thing of the past..... 

Hah that reminds me, I have a set of car snow socks which I bought 10 years ago and they are unused and still in the original packing. Can't see them being used down here in the  south of the UK!

[CryoraptorA303]

3 hours ago, Sunny76 said:

It didn’t feel warm. 

Translation: A few days in July and August didn't feel warm in my subjective experience, and due to my bias I am remembering these days more than the rest of the summer, which was otherwise average or in the case of June and some of August, above average in terms of temperature.

I am not going to argue about preferences of subjective experiences in this thread, or anything about this summer in detail as it is a winter thread after all, but we can't ignore the stats. Overall, June was the hottest on record by some margin thanks to the extremely warm nights and consistently high daytime temperatures nationwide, many nights in July were very mild and the second half of August has been solidly warm and on the dry side. Dismissing the actual stats because you remember a few days not being warm is lunacy. We can argue about how well the stats reflect what's actually happening on the ground until the cows come home, but those stats exist and they exist for a reason.

3 hours ago, Sunny76 said:

Yeah it’s never happening again. It’s mild from now on. 

Well, hopefully not "never", but it is certainly getting less and less common.

I can't help but think you actually like this and are happy to see real winter disappear from the UK, though, judging from your posts here and your general attitude to weather in this country. You are way too enthusiastic about us losing our winters, imo.

[SqueakheartLW]

15 hours ago, Summer of 95 said:

Not much in December 2000, 2-3cm but that was the most since January 1997 (and the first time it had stayed on the ground more than 24 hours since then). 

Dec 2010 we had snow on the ground from Nov 27 to Dec 9th, then again from 17th to 28th. Maximum was 15cm from 22nd-26th Dec (7cm on 2nd-3rd in the first spell). That one certainly made up for the winter before.....

2009/10 was the horror show when a 20-30 mile radius of Shrewsbury somehow avoided virtually all the snow time and time again. Whatever the wind direction, whatever the forecast... And again and again. Rather see another 2013-14 than that one (everywhere had nothing in that one)

The late 1990's and early 2000's winters were a bit hit and miss and generally quite localised in who did well out of them. As for my location:

1997/98 - Apart from the brief transitional snow event mid December 1997 the rest of this winter was poor for snow except for January 19th with a northerly toppler that gave some snow showers. April 1998 was also good around Easter.

1998/99 - Although a milder than average winter it was actually quite good for snow in my location with at least 5 separate snow events or showers and in general Scotland and areas of England bordering the east coast did quite well off the various Arctic northerlies that winter.

1999/00 - Probably the worst of the late 1990's / early 2000's winters for my location. Saw even less snow than in either 1997/98 and 2001/02. What little snow I saw was all between 13th and 21st December 1999.

2000/01 - For me this was the snowiest of the late 1990's / early 2000's winters. The Christmas to New Year cold spell was the best one of the winter with the late Feb / early March one a close 2nd. Did better off the late December 2000 cold spell compared with the late December 2001 one.

2001/02 - A winter that could have been better. Only late December 2001 was any good for snow. The 22nd and 30th December were the 2 main snow days in my location. Another very brief band of snow paid a visit late in Feb 2002.

2002/03 - Better than 2001/02 and 2003/04 for snow but generally focused on early and late Jan 2003 as well as early Feb 2003. The late Jan 2003 northerly toppler gave quite a covering of snow in my location.

2003/04 - This was a winter which in my opinion was a let down when the cold shots arrived. Got very little off the December northerly or the February one. The January one was better and this winter did manage to give me falling snow in December through to March too.

Rating the above for me from best to worst for snow

1. 2000/01
2. 1998/99
3. 2002/03
4. 2003/04
5. 2001/02
6. 1997/98
7. 1999/00

2008/09 to 2010/11

As for this trio of colder winters the single biggest dump of snow in my location came from a convergence zone overnight 30th November to 1st December 2010 with over 40cm of snow which added to existing cover from 25th November 2010 which then stuck around right until early January 2011.

Didn't do badly from January 2010 event either with over 5cm of snow that stuck around for over a week. December 2009 was a let down however with all the snow both to our north and south with my location in sunshine.

February 2009 wasn't too bad either with my location on the colder side of several frontal events that pushed northwards into the colder air.

I would however rate all 3 of these winters more highly than any of the late 1990's to early 2000's winters.

[cheeky_monkey]

20 hours ago, lassie23 said:

Winter forecast 2023/2024: First in-depth Winter weather outlook and how the pressure patterns will develop under the strong El Nino event » Severe Weather Europe

WWW.SEVERE-WEATHER.EU

---

A first look at the Winter 2023/2024 forecast for the United States, Canada, and Europe shows a strong influence of the growing El Nino event

Has this already been posted

drier and milder than normal for my location...doesn't get any better 

[lassie23]

Just now, cheeky_monkey said:

drier and milder than normal for my location...doesn't get any better 

I can imagine, who wants to be out in -30 temps.

[SollyOlly]

3 hours ago, CryoraptorA303 said:

Translation: A few days in July and August didn't feel warm in my subjective experience, and due to my bias I am remembering these days more than the rest of the summer, which was otherwise average or in the case of June and some of August, above average in terms of temperature.

I am not going to argue about preferences of subjective experiences in this thread, or anything about this summer in detail as it is a winter thread after all, but we can't ignore the stats. Overall, June was the hottest on record by some margin thanks to the extremely warm nights and consistently high daytime temperatures nationwide, many nights in July were very mild and the second half of August has been solidly warm and on the dry side. Dismissing the actual stats because you remember a few days not being warm is lunacy. We can argue about how well the stats reflect what's actually happening on the ground until the cows come home, but those stats exist and they exist for a reason.

Well, hopefully not "never", but it is certainly getting less and less common.

I can't help but think you actually like this and are happy to see real winter disappear from the UK, though, judging from your posts here and your general attitude to weather in this country. You are way too enthusiastic about us losing our winters, imo.

Completely and utterly agree with every word that you've written here! Would give it 100 likes if I could! 

As I've said before (and got shot down for at times!)...everybody is entitled to their own opinion. But not to their own facts.

 

[Don]

20 hours ago, Summer of 95 said:

Not much in December 2000, 2-3cm but that was the most since January 1997 (and the first time it had stayed on the ground more than 24 hours since then). 

Dec 2010 we had snow on the ground from Nov 27 to Dec 9th, then again from 17th to 28th. Maximum was 15cm from 22nd-26th Dec (7cm on 2nd-3rd in the first spell). That one certainly made up for the winter before.....

2009/10 was the horror show when a 20-30 mile radius of Shrewsbury somehow avoided virtually all the snow time and time again. Whatever the wind direction, whatever the forecast... And again and again. Rather see another 2013-14 than that one (everywhere had nothing in that one)

The snow amounts you had in December 2000 and 2010 were largely similar to what I got during those months down south and roughly at the same times as well!

However, winter 2009/10 was different, as although I missed out on most of the snow in December, I saw a rather epic fall overnight on the 5th, into the 6th January, with around 8-9 inches of level snow.  I can't imagine how frustrating that must have been for you for it to consistently miss Shrewsbury?!  I've been interested in the weather patterns during July and August this year as they have been remarkably similar to those in 2009.  However, perhaps I shouldn't be hoping for a 2009/10 repeat, now I've moved to where I have lol?!  

4 hours ago, SqueakheartLW said:

The late 1990's and early 2000's winters were a bit hit and miss and generally quite localised in who did well out of them.

I think that's a very accurate assessment of those winters.  Unfortunately my area was one of those that largely missed out! 

However, fortunately I did far better during the 2008-2013 winters!

Edited August 30, 2023 by Don

[SqueakheartLW]

Wonder if we are due a September 2009 repeat. Seems coincidental that an area of high pressure is moving in over the top of the UK just in time for the start of the month and as we know September 2009 was high pressure dominated with next to no rain over most of the UK for that entire month.

Maybe getting my hopes up too much here for another 2009/10 redux, only as long as we don't see a November 2009 repeat, what a washout that was.

Edited August 30, 2023 by SqueakheartLW

[damianslaw]

10 minutes ago, SqueakheartLW said:

Wonder if we are due a September 2009 repeat. Seems coincidental that an area of high pressure is moving in over the top of the UK just in time for the start of the month and as we know September 2009 was high pressure dominated with next to no rain over most of the UK for that entire month.

Maybe getting my hopes up too much here for another 2009/10 redux, only as long as we don't see a November 2009 repeat, what a washout that was.

Well the similiarities with July and August 2009 and 2023 are quite remarkable, and how Sept 23 is starting.. the 2009 trend continues. 

[SqueakheartLW]

3 minutes ago, damianslaw said:

Well the similiarities with July and August 2009 and 2023 are quite remarkable, and how Sept 23 is starting.. the 2009 trend continues. 

Wait for the 2009 trend to break come mid December 2023 LOL

Edited August 30, 2023 by SqueakheartLW

[Rain All Night]

2009

2023

Edited August 30, 2023 by RainAllNight

[Don]

49 minutes ago, damianslaw said:

Well the similiarities with July and August 2009 and 2023 are quite remarkable, and how Sept 23 is starting.. the 2009 trend continues. 

I don't think September 2009 ever get as hot as what the models are forecasting for next week, though?

Edited August 30, 2023 by Don

[MP-R]

57 minutes ago, damianslaw said:

Well the similiarities with July and August 2009 and 2023 are quite remarkable, and how Sept 23 is starting.. the 2009 trend continues. 

Let’s hope the similarities take a holiday in November…

[Rain All Night]

19 minutes ago, Don said:

I don't think September 2009 ever get as hot as what the models are forecasting for next week, though?

Warmest day I can find:

[damianslaw]

21 minutes ago, MP-R said:

Let’s hope the similarities take a holiday in November…

Yes I'd sooner not see a November 09 again, shockingly wet, eclipsed only by the infamous Dec 15!

[Dancerwithwings]

4 hours ago, lassie23 said:

I can imagine, who wants to be out in -30 temps.

I’m experienced it….best ever

Rovaniemi in Finland …2010 Boxing Day -34

 

 

Edited August 30, 2023 by Dancerwithwings

[Beanz]

38 minutes ago, damianslaw said:

Yes I'd sooner not see a November 09 again, shockingly wet, eclipsed only by the infamous Dec 15!

I’d happily take a Nov 09 if it meant a Dec 09, it’s a fair trade isn’t it..?

[CryoraptorA303]

1 minute ago, Beanz said:

I’d happily take a Nov 09 if it meant a Dec 09, it’s a fair trade isn’t it..?

The issue is it makes the ground very soggy and not that cold, so when the snow does come, a considerable amount is instantly slushed if there is no dry and/or cold period of at least a week beforehand. I won't complain if we do get a 09 rerun, however imo we can do much better, like Nov-Dec 2010 for instance. I know that 09-10 was the coldest and perhaps snowiest winter in some time at that point, and we got two separate blasts, but I would honestly not rank it exceptionally high on the list. Compared to what the continent got (and this isn't just a Britain thing, we most certainly can get what the continent gets with the right setup), we missed out on a lot. December 09 was ruined by too many rainy westerly interferences, and we almost entirely missed out on the February 10 cold snap the continent got. Overall the January 10 cold spell was the only notable part of the winter for us, imo. I'd almost rate it as on-par with December 2022 as we had a cold spell of similar duration, although down here in the SE we definitely got more snow in Jan 10.

Had we got a slightly better setup in 09-10, it could've been the best winter since the classics of the 80s, but sadly it was not to be. Nov-Dec 2010 certainly made up for it though and that to this day is probably the best winter period since the 80s, with 2012-13 just missing the bar on multiple occasions (December had 2009 syndrome, January was cold but just didn't get cold or snowy enough and February was overall not that special), and essentially every other winter since then bar some occasional cold fun like last December being almost entirely nonexistent. Hopefully the upcoming winter can deliver a real classic as time's running out, but I remain very cautiously optimistic.

[Don]

1 hour ago, RainAllNight said:

Warmest day I can find:

Thanks for that.  As I thought, September 2009 featured warm temperatures, but nothing really exceptional.