Storms and Convective discussion - September 2023

[Southern Storm]

It looks like 2 am Sunday morning is the time that somewhere from Cornwall to the IOW  can expect something to appear

It's got nowcast situation written all over it

[viking_smb]

1 minute ago, Southern Storm said:

It looks like 2 am Sunday morning is the time that somewhere from Cornwall to the IOW  can expect something to appear

It's got nowcast situation written all over it

previous run mate, 

current run has none over land, but something in the channel off weymouth, shame i'm not working in weymouth till oct otherwise I would of filmed it

[Southern Storm]

4 minutes ago, viking_smb said:

previous run mate, 

current run has none over land, but something in the channel off weymouth, shame i'm not working in weymouth till oct otherwise I would of filmed it

That's the 15z, has the 18z come out already? If so I can't find it anywhere 

[viking_smb]

1 minute ago, Southern Storm said:

That's the 15z, has the 18z come out already? If so I can't find it anywhere 

I take it back sorry mate, however its chopping and changing at mo 

Edited September 8, 2023 by viking_smb

[Southern Storm]

1 minute ago, viking_smb said:

I take it back sorry mate, however its chopping and changing at mo 

No worries, I've been keeping an eye on it today and it's definitely been changing every run.

Most of the hi res models have been struggling recently so I'm gonna fill the car and be on standby to see where things develop, seems like the best strategy 

[viking_smb]

1 minute ago, Southern Storm said:

No worries, I've been keeping an eye on it today and it's definitely been changing every run.

Most of the hi res models have been struggling recently so I'm gonna fill the car and be on standby to see where things develop, seems like the best strategy 

definately, i'm going to see how it pans out tomorrow eve 

[Turquoise]

Ireland with another decent storm yet again. Unbelievable.

[Metwatch]

2 minutes ago, Turquoise said:

Ireland with another decent storm yet again. Unbelievable.

 

Up there with the structure I saw back in June. 

[Eagle Eye]

Sorry about no forecast for today earlier. Absolutely shattered and Jay wasn't available to do the map. Proper professionals.

Edited September 8, 2023 by Eagle Eye

[Southern Storm]

I'm really hoping that something does develop tomorrow, this year has been to first in a long time in which I have not managed to get one photo of lightning in the UK  

The only consolation is that a recent trip to France delivered the goods, so I shouldn't complain really

 

[cheese]

8 minutes ago, Turquoise said:

Ireland with another decent storm yet again. Unbelievable.

We get all the heat, they get all the storms. 

[pad199207]

 

[Southern Storm]

Just now, pad199207 said:

 

that looks like a volcano has blown it's top! 

I'd love to be under that

[ChezWeather]

16 minutes ago, Eagle Eye said:

Sorry about no forecast for today earlier. Absolutely shattered and Jay wasn't available to do the map. Proper professionals.

Don't ever feel the need to apologise! Your forecasts and anyone else's for that matter will always be appreciated whenever they're released!

[minus10]

7 minutes ago, pad199207 said:

 

Thats more like it. What a beautiful structure...powerfull updrafts..

...what a waste though over here for tomorrow..all that Cape and little forcing !!...re latest from Nick Finnis..

 

Edited September 8, 2023 by minus10

[sheikhy]

7 minutes ago, minus10 said:

Thats more like it. What a beautiful structure...powerfull updrafts..

...what a waste though over here for tomorrow..all that Cape and little forcing !!...re latest from Nick Finnis..

 

Thats pretty much the exact route i am takin to skegness and back tomorrow!!literallly along that convergence zone!!!!!

[Ben Sainsbury]

16 minutes ago, minus10 said:

Thats more like it. What a beautiful structure...powerfull updrafts..

...what a waste though over here for tomorrow..all that Cape and little forcing !!...re latest from Nick Finnis..

 

You'll do very well to get a day with all 3 important factors for big storm development. I actually prefer a day like tomorrow over a typical sunshine and showers day, these storms likely to be incredibly photogenic and producing prolific lightning if they develop.

Edited September 8, 2023 by Ben Sainsbury

[SilverWolf]

1 hour ago, A.J said:

no trigger

Could you explain what trigger is needed? I’ve heard this loads before, but would like it explained… is it a cooler air mass coming in or something different? TIA 

Edited September 8, 2023 by SilverWolf

[Eagle Eye]

12 minutes ago, SilverWolf said:

Could you explain what trigger is needed? I’ve heard this loads before, but would like it explained… is it a cooler air mass coming in or something different? TIA 

Any difference in environmental temperature or pressure enough for it to become a front or a trough. A shortwave trough or any front. To be more specific, there are other ways for or to occur though, anything that works to make low-level convergence and upper-level divergence can work as a forcing. Something like a jet streak (just research, it's pretty simple) or PV lobes that I often over talk about. Along with moisture advection near the surface forcing moisture convergence. Then there's the most complicated gravity wave, which is rare here.  Those are ones other to fronts and troughs that work. 

Edited September 8, 2023 by Eagle Eye

[Wilxy]

9 minutes ago, SilverWolf said:

Could you explain what trigger is needed? I’ve heard this loads before, but would like it explained… is it a cooler air mass coming in or something different? TIA 

You need forcing to help produce lift for a storm to develop

For example tomorrow you can see there is good cape and very good wind shear but there is a lot of CIN so its going to take a big trigger to produce storms tomorrow like a hill or wind convergence but i'm sure others can explain better.

 

 

[pinball wizard]

Trigger is basically something that causes the air to be forced upwards, csn be a front, orographic features or wind convergence for example. If the air doesn't keep rising and condensing then you won't get cumulonimbus cloud's developing 

[SilverWolf]

^ ^ Great explanations for my question, thanks. Kinda explains why it’s so relatively quiet on here too! As much as I understand what’s been said, it’s still kinda disappointing (so far). Maybe it’s just a badly recalled memory from my childhood 35 years ago, but it did seem like every spell like this went proper bang toward the end,, especially with humidity like this… maybe it still will! 
 

Edit: In that memory, perhaps half of those events were not even hinted at on the (BBC) weather back in the 80’s… it’s amazing the advances in prediction since then, and the opportunity to explore potentials on this site. I’m even more fascinated and engaged with weather than I was as a kid… but! I do sometimes miss that joy of waking up to a crazy storm in the middle of the night, or 8 inches of snow in the morning that was ‘unlikely’, or I simply missed the tv weather forecast… But now have the V4 Radar! Mixed blessings…

Edited September 8, 2023 by SilverWolf

[Southern Storm]

UKv 18z latest update has moved tomorrow night's storms firing slightly further west than what was shown on todays 15z, which continues today's trend

Still plenty of time for rough timings and position to change 

Edited September 8, 2023 by Southern Storm

[Flash bang flash bang etc]

1 hour ago, ChezWeather said:

Don't ever feel the need to apologise! Your forecasts and anyone else's for that matter will always be appreciated whenever they're released!

Ah - good to know! in that case:

THE FLASH FLASH BANG BANG ETC BANG STORM FORECAST BANG STORM (ETC):

So tomorrow it will be hot. Hot like a sexy red car.

To the south there will be huge concern about how boring the evening hours will be - as a lid of storm-crushing cloud sits on us like a big atmospheric school bully.

At the same time - to the north - there is less worry about because the weather will be far more exciting. Maybe.

Watch the radar kids  

[Ben Sainsbury]

Both days are an improvement on latest probabilistic charts. Sunday I may add shows a small 15-25% of hail >2cm, which is something I've never seen over the UK since this product has been released. Also a 5% probability for 5cm hail too.