Storms and Convective discussion - September 2023

[The Tall Weatherman]

I have honestly not seen a hi-res model (Arome) perform this badly in a long time. Widespread very active thunderstorms scattered across Northern Island comparing themselves to some of Englands high-end events this year. 

[offerman]

15 minutes ago, A.J said:

the answer is straight forward, I moved ooop north a few years ago from Wilts and took all the storms with me ! 😉🤣

Man, we used to get some crackers breaking out over Salisbury Plain and the Marlborough Downs, some absolute monsters ! 

Brilliant!  Now i know why ! All is forgiven now just move baak dan saff 

or bake deown serth ( sorry, my poor attempt at putting Wiltshire twang onto that last part) 

[offerman]

18 minutes ago, A.J said:

the answer is straight forward, I moved ooop north a few years ago from Wilts and took all the storms with me ! 😉🤣

Man, we used to get some crackers breaking out over Salisbury Plain and the Marlborough Downs, some absolute monsters ! 

Also, to add, I love it over that way, Salisbury plane, and especially Marlborough downs over Pewsey vale, Knaphill, Walker is Hill, Golden Ball Hill milk Hill area. Such a beautiful part of the world which I regularly visit stay overnight. Some great dark skies over there.

[minus10]

27 minutes ago, The Tall Weatherman said:

I have honestly not seen a hi-res model (Arome) perform this badly in a long time. Widespread very active thunderstorms scattered across Northern Island comparing themselves to some of Englands high-end events this year. 

Now heading into central and western Scotland.....

Edited September 7 by minus10

[ChannelThunder]

27 minutes ago, The Tall Weatherman said:

I have honestly not seen a hi-res model (Arome) perform this badly in a long time. Widespread very active thunderstorms scattered across Northern Island comparing themselves to some of Englands high-end events this year. 

Ah how we miss Dan's outlooks already! I'll bet he would've had a SLT at least over NI; nothing got past him!

[Marcus_surfer]

Lovely action in Ireland and Scotland good luck guys. Sun's only now coming out here felt very warm/muggy all day

[A Face like Thunder]

Beeb are suggesting this evening that Sunday is the day for thundery activity and a decline in temperatures, but not in the SE which will remain hot and storm free all day. 

[alexisj9]

2 hours ago, mac_ said:

Tremendous storms in N Ireland today. Frequent lightning and the thunder was constant at times with rumbles rolling into each other.

I've had one storm here in Dover where the lighting was so frequent, it didn't have time to file in to each other, it was just a constant roar.

[Azazel]

5 minutes ago, alexisj9 said:

I've had one storm here in Dover where the lighting was so frequent, it didn't have time to file in to each other, it was just a constant roar.

Same here. 2019 and the Bournemouth supercell come to mind. It was like war of the worlds

[Flash bang flash bang etc]

2 hours ago, A.J said:

the answer is straight forward, I moved ooop north a few years ago from Wilts and took all the storms with me ! 😉🤣

Man, we used to get some crackers breaking out over Salisbury Plain and the Marlborough Downs, some absolute monsters ! 

Why am I liking posts by this traitor? 😅

17 minutes ago, A Face like Thunder said:

Beeb are suggesting this evening that Sunday is the day for thundery activity and a decline in temperatures, but not in the SE which will remain hot and storm free all day. 

This makes me feel like shouting a word of four letters. And it isn’t “Nice” 😉

[mac_]

11 minutes ago, alexisj9 said:

I've had one storm here in Dover where the lighting was so frequent, it didn't have time to file in to each other, it was just a constant roar.

Sounds like quite an experience. Normally the storms here are just a few rumbles, well spaced apart then it's gone. This year they've been more intense but not quite in the constant roar category! 

[East_England_Stormchaser91]

I think parts of the W Mids, Central Wales and parts of NW England could be in for some decent storms tomorrow. Some real juice out that way in the form of 2000j/Kg in parts. Perhaps some decent hail involved if they do form in the evening. 

[ChannelThunder]

A good ECM run, that; imports for the central south on Saturday night, and some potent homegrown stuff for many on Sunday.

[Chris.R]

27 minutes ago, East_England_Stormchaser91 said:

I think parts of the W Mids, Central Wales and parts of NW England could be in for some decent storms tomorrow. Some real juice out that way in the form of 2000j/Kg in parts. Perhaps some decent hail involved if they do form in the evening. 

I hope you're right. WRF is extremely reluctant to break out any precipitation though which seems to be a theme with it recently. It didn't want anything over Northern Ireland though as far as I saw today.

[viking_smb]

1 hour ago, ChannelThunder said:

A good ECM run, that; imports for the central south on Saturday night, and some potent homegrown stuff for many on Sunday.

having said that mate, I would wait till sat morning as it will prob change by then, 

UKV is chopping and changing at mo and the 15z is less than previous runs for sat night

Edited September 7 by viking_smb

[Cheshire Freeze]

ICON wants to kick things off storm wise across Mid/North Wales, parts of the Midlands and N England on Sunday

[alexisj9]

4 hours ago, minus10 said:

Now heading into central and western Scotland.....

I think that's the trough that was forecast for last night early morning delayed, looks exactly where our young forecaster put it, but later. I'm sure met had storms forcast for last night too.

[alexisj9]

3 hours ago, mac_ said:

Sounds like quite an experience. Normally the storms here are just a few rumbles, well spaced apart then it's gone. This year they've been more intense but not quite in the constant roar category! 

Only once ever, it was a channel MCs that just hit the SE corner at about 2am in the morning, the amount of people that slept through it was remarkable. Mean while we had already had two good storms, was just about to turn in myself, and could see the flashing approaching so stayed up, till about 3:30ish, after it was mostly done, but could still see flashes and hear some rumbling then. Don't think I'll ever see another storm like it. The gust front took my fence down, was about 80mph in the channel.

Edited September 7 by alexisj9

[alexisj9]

2 hours ago, Chris.R said:

I hope you're right. WRF is extremely reluctant to break out any precipitation though which seems to be a theme with it recently. It didn't want anything over Northern Ireland though as far as I saw today.

In recent experience, last year, no ppn doesn't necessarily mean no storm.

[Flash bang flash bang etc]

CS on Saturday night?

 

[Metwatch]

A selection of lightning captures tonight from weather watchers in Northern Ireland and northern Scotland.

[Ben Sainsbury]

Not too bad for us southerners on Saturday evening, models seem to be alternating between some strong surface-based storms and active elevated thunderstorms. Plenty of uncertainty, but plenty of positive solutions for this weekend.

For good measure this is how Saturday morning starts off vs Sunday morning. Sign of the potential severity to thunderstorms on Sunday. Wonder if the 0z run in the morning shows us a very rare hatched for hail > 5cm for the afternoon/evening?

Edited September 7 by Ben Sainsbury

[Zak M]

00z AROME offers a bit of hope for the storm-starved in the SW...

[Sprites]

London and the South East 

[Southern Storm]

13 minutes ago, Sprites said:

London and the South East 

This is showing for early hours of Sunday, I'm sure it will change as we get closer, hopefully it is more widespread than showing